During a US-Philippines joint exercise, the Philippine Air Force fighter jets flow over a US amphibious assault ship.

美菲联合演习中菲律宾空军战机飞越美两栖攻击舰上空。

By Ling Yunzhi

凌云志

According to reports by Reuters, the Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel G. Romuldez said recently that the US and the Philippines have been planning a joint patrol in the South China Sea, possibly including Japan and Australia, and the talks on this are currently on the way. If the plan could be implemented as planned, destabilizing factors in the South China Sea are sure to increase, rendering the regional security situation even more complex.

据路透社报道，近期菲律宾驻美国大使罗慕尔德兹表示，美菲两国计划将在南海举行联合巡航，并称日本和澳大利亚也希望加入，目前正在与美国就此事进行协商。如果该计划得以落实，势必会给南海带来增添不稳定因素，使得地区安全形势更加复杂。

Promoting the in-depth development of the US-Philippines alliance

推动美菲同盟深化发展

Since President Rodrigo Duterte government stepped down in June 2022, the US has frequently engaged in contacts with the Marcos government. On September 22, 2022, US President Joe Biden met with new Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), during which Biden expressed the US' willingness to jointly safeguard the so-called freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea.

2022年6月杜特尔特政府卸任后，美国频频向马科斯政府抛出橄榄枝。2022年9月22日，美国总统拜登在参加联合国大会期间会见马科斯。拜登在会谈中表达了共同维护所谓“南海航行和航空自由”的意愿。

On February 2, 2023, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited the Philippines. The two sides issued a joint announcement reading that the US military forces will be allowed to build four new bases in the Southeast Asian nation. On February 21, Lloyd Austin called his Philippine counterpart, Carlito Galvez Jr., to reiterate Washington's support and commitment to help defend its oldest treaty ally in Asia and "discussed proposals to deepen operational cooperation and enhance the US and the Philippines' shared security, including the recent decision to resume combined maritime activities in the South China Sea".

今年2月2日，美国国防部长奥斯汀访问菲律宾，双方发表声明，菲律宾允许美国建设4个新军事设施。 2月21日，美国国防部长奥斯汀又与菲律宾国防部长加尔维斯通话，重申了美国对菲律宾的支持承诺，“讨论了深化行动合作并加强美国与菲律宾共同安全的建议，包括最近决定恢复在南海的联合海上活动”。

Against this context, the Philippines invited the US to participate in a joint patrol in the South China Sea, with the fundamental purpose to repair its alliance with the US through military cooperation, so as to enhance its position in the US Indo-Pacific strategy and alliance network.

在这种背景下，菲律宾邀请美国参加南海联合巡航，其根本目的就是希望通过军事领域合作，积极修复与美国的盟友关系，从而提升自身在美国“印太”战略和同盟体系中的地位。

The involvement of Australia and Japan will complicate disputes in the South China Sea

澳日介入导致南海争端更加复杂

With the continuous adjustment of its defense policy, Japan has been committed to developing southward and expanding its influence to Southeast Asian countries in recent years. In addition, Japan has repeatedly expressed its hope to reach a "visiting forces agreement" with the Philippines, so that the Japanese Self-Defense Force can get involved in the national defense of the Philippines to the maximum extent.

对于日本来说，随着防务政策的不断调整，近年来一直致力于向南发展，不断向东南亚国家拓展影响力。此外，日本还多次表达希望与菲律宾达成《访问部队协议》，以便日本自卫队最大程度介入到菲律宾的防务中。

In recent years, Australia has carried out multiple military operations alone or jointly in the South China Sea. On February 22, 2023, Australian Minister of Defense Richard Marles expressed at a press conference that the Australian government intended to further deepen bilateral defense relations with the Philippines and that the joint maritime patrol with the Philippine Navy in the South China Sea would be the "next step" to take by the Australian Navy.

澳大利亚近年来多次在南海地区单独或联合开展军事行动。2023年2月22日，澳大利亚国防部长马尔斯在新闻发布会上称，澳大利亚政府有意同菲律宾扩大双边防务关系，并表示与菲律宾海军在南海地区展开联合巡航将是澳大利亚海军的“下一步行动”。

These remarks and statements of Japan and Australia chimed in with Philippines’ South China Sea policy intention, which further promoted the Philippines' willingness to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea. From the perspective of future development, the involvement of Japan and Australia in the South China Sea patrol means that the Philippines is to have more weights in dialogue and negotiation with China on the South China Sea dispute, which will render the dispute even more complicated.

日本和澳大利亚的这些言论和表态与菲律宾的南海政策意愿一拍即合，更加促进了后者组织在南海地区开展联合巡航的意愿。从未来发展来看，日澳两国加入南海地区巡航后，意味着菲律宾拥有更多与中国就南海争议问题进行对话与谈判的砝码，这些都将会导致南海争端更加复杂。

The four-nation alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines hard to form

“美日澳菲”四国同盟难以成形

Since the Philippines, Japan and Australia are all allies of the US, there is some maneuverability among them in taking joint military operations, and they may even have mechanisms such as the Quad of the US, Australia, India, and Japan, and the trilateral security partnership AUKUS of the US, the UK and Australia. But in reality, it is unlikely to achieve such an alliance in the foreseeable future.

由于菲律宾、日本和澳大利亚都是美国的盟友，因此在采取联合军事行动方面具有一定的可操作性，甚至似乎有可能构建起类似美日印澳“四方对话机制”、美英澳“奥库斯”三边联盟等机制。但从现实来看，这种联盟在可预见的将来难以实现。

First of all, the US, as the core of the alliance, has taken an ambiguous posture towards the sovereignty of the South China Sea for a long time due to its own political needs. Therefore, there is still doubt about the sincerity of the US in its cooperation with the Philippines. The US' attitude will also directly affect the will and motivation of Japan and Australia.

首先，作为该联盟的核心国家，美国出于政治的需要，对南海主权问题长期采取模棱两可的态度。因此，美国在与菲律宾的合作中带有多少真心实意仍存疑问。而美国的这种态度也将会直接影响日本和澳大利亚的意愿和动力。

In addition, the joint patrol of the US, Philippines, Japan and Australia in the South China Sea is bound to destroy the current situation of the South China Sea issue and leads to the escalation of the dispute, which is not what the surrounding countries want to see. Many Southeast Asian countries are unwilling to take sides between China and the US, and do not want foreign powers to show off their armed strength or stir up the situation in the South China Sea.

此外，美菲日澳在南海地区进行联合巡航，势必会破坏当前南海问题现状，导致争端升级，这是周边国家都不希望看到的。不少东南亚国家不愿在中美之间选边站队，不希望域外大国到南海炫耀武力或者搅动局势。

Furthermore, although the Philippines hopes to deepen its military cooperation with the US, it does not mean that it is willing to serve as a pawn in the confrontation between the US and China. Philippine President Marcos said on many occasions that the Philippines needs to cooperate with China economically and confrontation with China is not in the fundamental interests of the Philippines.

此外，对于菲律宾来说，尽管希望通过加深与美国的军事合作，但并不意味着它会甘愿去当美国与中国对抗的“马前卒”。马科斯总统多次表示，菲律宾在经济上需要与中国合作，与中国对抗不符合菲律宾的根本利益。

Therefore, the Philippine plan to carry out a joint patrol with the US, Japan and Australia in the South China Sea is more of a momentum under the constraints of various factors, and the symbolic significance is greater than the practical one. It is even more difficult to realize the so-called "alliance of the US, Philippines, Japan and Australia", which is highly sensitive to the South China Sea issue.

因此，在种种因素的制约下，菲律宾计划与美日澳进行南海联合巡航更多是一种造势，象征意义大于实际意义，而构建针对南海问题的敏感性极高的所谓 “美菲日澳”同盟更是难以实现。

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.