By Ji Cheng
季澄
The picture shows a NATO defense ministers meeting. (File photo)
北约国防部长会议（资料图）
At a recent meeting of NATO defense ministers at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that all NATO member states should consider the annual defense spending target – 2% of their GDP – as a "minimum" rather than a "maximum".
近期，在布鲁塞尔召开的北约国防部长会议上，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格声称，各成员国应将年度国防开支占本国GDP2%的预定目标视为“最下限”而非“最上限”。
Against the context of the protracted and complex conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO's practice of raising defense spending and keeping increasing military assistance to Ukraine will aggravate the conflict situation, be detrimental to realizing a ceasefire and cessation of war at the earliest possible, and even will deal a serious blow and damage to the security situation in Europe. At the same time, the strategic autonomy process in Europe will also stagnate or even regress due to the strategic coercion of the US and NATO.
在俄乌冲突呈现长期化、复杂化的背景下，北约抬高国防开支标准、持续加码对乌军援的做法，不仅将激化冲突局势、不利于早日实现“停火止战”，更会对欧洲地区安全局势造成严重冲击与破坏。同时，欧洲“战略自主”进程也将因为美国及北约的战略裹挟而陷入停滞甚至倒退的境地。
A defense spending of 2% is no longer the minimum target
占GDP2%不再是“最低目标”
According to the official statistics of NATO, the total annual defense expenditure of NATO in 2022 exceeded one trillion US dollars. It is expected that the defense spending of at least 19 NATO member states will exceed 2% of their GDP as of 2024, approaching two-thirds of the total number of NATO members. Specifically, the US, Germany, and France act as important drivers of NATO's increase in defense spending standards, as well as the momentum builders in public opinion and bellwethers in action.
据北约官方统计，2022年北约年度国防开支总额超过1万亿美元。预计至少有19个成员国的国防开支将在2024年超过GDP2%，接近北约全部成员国数量的三分之二。具体来看，美国、德国、法国是北约上调国防开支标准的重要推手，是舆论上的“造势者”和行动中的“领头羊”。
Currently, the annual defense budget of the US accounts for as much as 3.5% of its GDP, far above the minimum standard of 2% set by NATO, and even exceeding the total military expenditures of all other NATO members. French President Macron stated in January that the total defense budget of France will be elevated to 413 billion euros for the 2024-2030 term, an increase of about one-third compared to the previous seven-year period. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called for an increase of 10 billion euros per year in the annual budget of Germany’s armed forces in 2024, and said that thedefense spending target of 2% of the GDP could only serve as the basis for NATO to take further measures, which is clearly creating momentum for subsequent additional funding.
目前，美国年度国防预算占本国GDP比重高达3.5%，不仅远高于北约设定的2%的最低标准，更超出其他所有成员国军费开支总和。法国总统马克龙则在今年1月表示，将把2024年至2030年的国防预算总额提升至4130亿欧元，较上一个七年周期增长约三分之一。德国国防部长皮斯托留斯要求将2024年国防预算增加100亿欧元，并称2%的开支标准仅应作为北约采取进一步措施的基础，这显然在为后续追加资金投入造势。
Some Eastern European, Nordic, and Baltic countries have vigorously responded to NATO's defense spending increase. According to NATO sources, the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and related Eastern European countries have proposed to have the current 2% of the GDP target raised to 2.5% at the NATO defense ministers meeting. Poland, among others, will increase the proportion of its defense budget in GDP to 4% in 2023, a significant jump from 2.4% in 2022. Once the plan gets into implementation, Poland will become a NATO member with the highest share of defense spending in GDP.
部分东欧、北欧和波罗的海国家成为北约增加国防开支的积极“响应者”。据北约消息人士透露，波罗的海三国和相关东欧国家在北约国防部长会议期间，主张将开支标准占GDP比重由目前的2%提高至2.5%。其中，波兰将把2023年国防预算在GDP中的占比提升至4%，较2022年的2.4%显著跃升。一旦计划落地，波兰将成为北约成员国中国防开支占GDP份额最高的国家。
The US to shackle Europe by Russia-Ukraine conflict
美国借俄乌冲突给欧洲套上枷锁
Europe has once resisted or deliberately delayed the US' request to increase NATO military spending since the end of the Cold War. In fact, most of the European countries in NATO have reduced their defense spending during the post-Cold War period, which has made the US quite dissatisfied. However, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US has successfully put the shackles back on its European allies, making them yield step by step to the dual pressures of security difficulties and values, and finally embark on the path as set by the US for them.
冷战结束以来，欧洲不是没有抗拒或故意拖延过美国增加北约军费的要求。事实上，冷战后北约中的欧洲成员国大多削减了国防开支，这令美国颇为不满，不过，随着俄乌冲突的爆发，美国成功给欧洲盟友重新套上了枷锁，让其在安全困境和价值观的双重逼迫中，步步退让，最终走上美国为其预设的道路。
Four months after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO issued the 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO's guiding document, which pointed out that the competition among major powers and the resulting cyclical turbulence are profoundly shaping the security environment of NATO. The document also defined Russia as the “most significant and direct threat” to NATO members’ peace and security. Such an understanding of the current and future strategic environment undoubtedly serves to lay the groundwork for increasing military spending.
俄乌冲突爆发4个月后，北约发布《北约2022战略概念》文件指出，大国竞争及由此引发的周期性动荡正深刻塑造北约的安全环境。该文件还将俄罗斯定义为北约“最大且直接的威胁”。这种对于当前和未来战略环境的认知，无疑为增加军费做好了铺垫。
To tie the allies firmly to its chariots, the US has been fearmongering while repeatedly urging its allies to increase military spending. At the NATO defense ministers Meeting, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed the hope of reaching an agreement with the US allies on a new defense investment pledge at the NATO summit this summer, so as to jointly upgrade the alliance's defense plan and improve the combat readiness level of the troops.
为将盟友牢牢绑上自己的战车，美国不仅贩卖焦虑，还反复敦促盟友增加军费。在此次北约国防部长会议上，美国国防部长奥斯汀表示，希望与盟友在今夏举行的北约峰会上就一项新的国防投资承诺达成协议，以共同升级联盟防御计划、提高部队战备水平。
"Adding fuel to the fire" is bound to exacerbate security-related risks
“拱火浇油”势必加剧安全风险
For the US, encouraging its allies to increase defense budgets can effectively reduce its own defense burden in Europe, and so it can shift more resources to the Indo-Pacific region. This move can be regarded as a way to maintain the US leadership in European security affairs in a "low-cost and efficient" manner. However, for other NATO members, no matter how the US plays up the current security threat, there are still many difficulties facing them in actually increasing their defense spending.
对美国来说，鼓动盟友提高国防预算能有效减轻其在欧洲方向的防务负担，转而将更多资源投向印太，不失为一种以“低成本、高效率”方式维持对欧安全事务主导权的办法。但对北约其他成员国来说，无论美国如何渲染当前的安全威胁，真正提高国防开支仍面临诸多困难。
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has produced serious spillover effects. The energy crisis, inflation crisis and food crisis the conflict has brought have left many NATO members of Europe with financial constraints. In this situation, blindly increasing defense spending will inevitably divert expenditure targeting other aspects, especially that those related to people's livelihood, thereby shaking the governance foundation of the government. The recent anti-war protests in countries including Germany, France, and Italy have spoken volumes about this.
俄乌冲突产生严重的溢出效应，其带来的能源危机、通胀危机和粮食危机，让不少欧洲成员国的财政捉襟见肘。这种情况下一味追加国防支出，必然会挤占其他方面特别是关系民生的各种支出，从而动摇政府执政根基。近期在德、法、意等国此起彼伏的反战示威活动就充分说明了这一点。
The increase in defense spending of European countries may only be a stress reaction under the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although temporarily tied to the US chariot and cannot move, these countries may not unconditionally cater to the US' hegemonic considerations for long. For European members of NATO, consolidating the strategic autonomy of European defense is supposed to be their primary concern. It is worth mentioning that under the constraint of the US "great power competition" strategy, NATO's Asian-Pacific expansion and globalization are growing increasingly apparent. This may sow the seeds of disagreement between the US and Europe, as well as within European countries, on the issue of defense spending.
欧洲国家增加国防开支或许只是俄乌冲突之下的“应激反应”，其虽然暂时被裹挟在美国的战车上动弹不得，但并不意味着会长期无条件地迎合美国的霸权考量。对于北约的欧洲成员国来说，强化欧洲自主防御能力才是其首要关注事项。值得一提的是，在美“大国竞争”战略的捆绑下，北约的“亚太化”“全球化”倾向愈发明显。这或将在美欧间以及欧洲国家内部就国防开支问题埋下分歧的种子。
(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
（作者单位：军事科学院）
