By Qin Sheng
秦升
The US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a detailed plan for the trilateral nuclear submarine cooperation at the US naval base in San Diego on March 14. As the first major cooperation project among the three countries since the establishment of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) trilateral partnership in September 2021, how the US and the UK, as nuclear possessors, help Australia equip its fleet with nuclear submarines has been the concern of the international community. This time, the detailed cooperation plan announced by the three parties means that the project has officially entered the implementation stage. The practice of commissioning and deploying nuclear submarines and developing related nuclear technology in Australia is bound to project extremely adverse impacts on the geopolitical situation in the region and even globally.
3月14日，美国总统拜登、英国首相苏纳克以及澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯在美国圣迭戈海军基地宣布了三方核潜艇合作的详细方案。作为美英澳三国2021年9月组建AUKUS以来的首个重大合作项目，美英作为拥核国家如何帮助澳大利亚装备核潜艇，一直受到国际社会关注。此次，美英澳三方公布详细的核潜艇合作计划，意味着该项目正式进入实施阶段。澳大利亚装备和部署核潜艇并发展相关的核技术将对本地区乃至全球的地缘政治产生极其恶劣的影响。
First, the practice serves to undermine the strategic balance in the Western Pacific region. Nuclear submarines are strategic weapons with long-range endurance and underwater navigation capabilities that far exceed Australia's goal of defending its national security, while greatly increasing Australia's military projection capabilities throughout the Asia Pacific region. In terms of weapon characteristics, the US' Virginia-class nuclear submarine can launch cruise missiles with a range of 2500 kilometers. When navigating in the northern waters of Australia, its military projection range covers most East Asian countries, including China. Deploying nuclear submarines and equipping them with long-range strike weapons will inevitably trigger an arms race among regional countries and undermine the security and stability of the region.
首先，破坏西太平洋地区的战略平衡。核潜艇是战略武器，其远程续航能力和水下航行能力，远远超过了澳大利亚维护自身国家安全的目标，极大增加了澳大利亚在整个亚太地区的军事投射能力。根据美国弗吉尼亚级核潜艇的武器特点，该潜艇可发射射程为2500公里的巡航导弹，当其在澳大利亚北部海域航行时，军事投射范围覆盖了包括中国在内的大部分东亚国家。部署核潜艇并装备远程打击武器，必然引发地区国家的军备竞赛，破坏本地区的安全和稳定。
Secondly, it is to impact the nuclear non-proliferation system in the region. The commission of nuclear submarines to the Royal Australian Navy will make the trajectory of nuclear fuel cover the maritime and continental regions of Southeast Asia and the entire South Pacific region. The two regions have signed the Treaty on Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone and the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty respectively. Australia's possess of nuclear-powered submarines will inevitably impact the aforementioned treaties, making the nuclear-free zone disappear in all but name. The South Pacific region has had a painful lesson concerning nuclear power in history. During the Cold War, Western countries including the US, the UK, and France, frequently conducted large-scale nuclear tests in the region, and the Marshall Islands are still exposed to the enormous risks of nuclear leakage and pollution to date. The nuclear issue has been one of the most sensitive regional issues for Pacific island countries. In addition, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has always hoped that Southeast Asia will not become an arena for major powers' game. The deployment of nuclear submarines to Australia, however, will inevitably exacerbate the competition among major powers, and ASEAN's central position will be further restricted.
其次，冲击地区核不扩散体系。澳大利亚部署核潜艇将使核燃料的轨迹覆盖东南亚的海洋和大陆区域以及整个南太平洋地区，这两个地区已经分别签订《东南亚无核武器区条约》以及《南太平洋无核区条约》，澳大利亚装备核动力潜艇必将对上述条约形成冲击，使无核区名存实亡。历史上，南太平洋有着惨痛的“核”教训，冷战期间美英法等西方国家在该地区进行了频繁且规模巨大的核试验，至今，马绍尔群岛仍然暴露在核泄漏和核污染的巨大风险中。涉“核”议题是太平洋岛国最敏感的地区议题之一。此外，东盟一直以来不希望东南亚地区成为大国博弈场，澳大利亚部署核潜艇，必将加剧大国竞争态势，东盟的中心地位遭到进一步挤压。
Finally, the demonstration effect of Australia will be extremely dangerous to the world as the first non-nuclear country with nuclear submarines. Building nuclear submarines in Australia will inevitably involve the transfer of nuclear technology and nuclear fuel. Currently, there are only six countries with nuclear submarines in the world. Once the practice of the AUKUS is followed by other countries, the risk of nuclear proliferation will increase exponentially. In February 2022, the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated in an interview that Japan should explore issues related to "nuclear sharing" with the US. In response to such statement that blatantly violated Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles and the obligations of Member States of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the Japanese government would not discuss the issue, while acquiescing to other political parties' different views expressed on the issue, including the Liberal-Democratic Party of Japan (LDP). In January 2023, the ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol pointed out that if the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula escalates further, the ROK may deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own nuclear weapons.
最后，澳大利亚成为全球首个拥有核潜艇的无核国家所带来的示范效应极其危险。在澳大利亚建造核潜艇，必然涉及核技术的转让和核燃料的转移。当前，全球只有六个国家拥有核潜艇，美英澳三国的做法一旦被其他国家效仿，核扩散的风险将呈指数级上升。2022年2月，日本前首相安倍晋三在采访中声称，日本应该探讨与美国的“核共享”相关问题。面对这种公然违背日本“无核三原则”和《核不扩散条约》成员国义务的言论，日本首相岸田文雄一方面表态，政府不会讨论该问题，另一方面却默许包括自民党在内的其他政党，在该问题上发表不同意见。2023年1月，韩国总统尹锡悦指出，若（朝核问题）进一步升级，韩国有可能部署战术核武器或自主拥核。
In addition to Japan and the ROK, a considerable number of countries around the world have been seeking to acquire nuclear technology and weapons. The dual standards of the US, the UK and Australia on nuclear issues have set a catastrophic precedent and will pose a threat to the nuclear order in the region and even the world.
除了日本和韩国之外，全球范围内仍有相当数量的国家一直在寻求获得核技术和核武器。美英澳在核议题上的双重标准，开创了灾难性先例，将对本地区乃至全球的核秩序形成威胁。
(The author is an assistant research fellow and Doctor at the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
（作者是中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院助理研究员、博士）
Editor's note: Originally published on China.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
