By Gao Qiao
高乔
Australia's military spending has continued to increase in recent years. In the 2022-2023 fiscal years, the Albanese government's defense spending budget increased by eight percent to nearly 48.7 billion Australian dollars. The Albanese government has proposed that the ratio of Australia's defense spending to GDP will increase to more than two percent by 2026. Moreover, the Australian government's military procurement spending and procurement agreements have also been very big.
近年来，澳大利亚的军费开支不断增加。2022至2023财年，阿尔巴尼斯政府国防开支预算增加8%，达近487亿澳元高位，并提出到2026年，澳国防开支占GDP的比率将提升到2%以上。近期，澳大利亚政府的军购开支和军购协议动作也都够“大手笔”。
In January, the Australian government confirmed that it will spend over 1 billion Australian dollars to purchase Naval Strike Missile (NSM) and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and will spend nearly 3 billion Australian dollars to buy 40 American-made Black Hawk helicopters. On March 13, according to the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation plan announced by the US, the UK, and Australia, Australia will spend 368 billion Australian dollars by 2055 to build a submarine fleet consisting of eight nuclear submarines, which is the "most expensive defense project" in Australian history. On March 16, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency issued a statement saying that the US State Department has approved Australia's request to purchase 220 American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the deal is worth 1.3 billion Australian dollars (approximately 6 billion yuan), including maintenance and logistics.
1月，澳大利亚政府确认将斥资超过10亿澳元购买“海军攻击导弹”和“海马斯”高机动火箭炮系统，并斥资近30亿澳元订购40架美制“黑鹰”直升机。3月13日，根据美英澳宣布的核潜艇“奥库斯”合作计划，到2055年澳大利亚将耗资3680亿澳元建造一支由8艘核潜艇组成的水下舰队，这是澳大利亚历史上“最昂贵的国防项目”。3月16日，美国国防部国防安全合作局发表声明，美国国务院已经批准澳大利亚购买220枚美制“战斧”巡航导弹的请求，这笔交易达13亿澳元（约合60亿人民币），包括维护和后勤。
Guo Chunmei, Deputy Director of the Institute of Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations analyzed that Australia regards the US-Australia alliance as the cornerstone of its diplomacy and defense and views the AUKUS submarine cooperation as a supreme glory. In Australia's view, the AUKUS submarine cooperation will greatly enhance Australia's national defense strength and expand its regional influence. Australia also hopes to develop its domestic defense industry, drive economic development, and create more employment opportunities by building submarines locally and integrating into the defense supply chains of the US and the UK.
对此，中国现代国际关系研究院东南亚和大洋洲研究所副所长郭春梅分析，澳大利亚视美澳同盟为其外交与防务基石，视奥库斯核潜艇合作为无上荣光。在澳看来，奥库斯核潜艇合作将极大提升澳大利亚的国防实力，扩大其地区影响力。澳大利亚还希望借助本土建造核潜艇、融入美英国防供应链等，发展本国国防工业，进而驱动经济发展，创造更多就业。
Guo further analyzes that the benefits of the AUKUS's plan may ultimately go to the US and the UK, while the risks are left to Australia. She argues that while the US and the UK claim to help Australia train military officers and technicians, the Australian Naval troops and workers are actually dispatched to serve on submarines and in shipyards of the US and the UK. While they claim to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines, they are paving the way for US and UK nuclear submarines to visit and rotate in Australia as soon as possible. While they claim to help Australia enhance its defense capabilities, they are turning Australia into a supplement to the US Indo-Pacific fleet and serve as a maintenance and logistics base for US nuclear submarines during peacetime and as an assistant for remote attacks and close-in reconnaissance during wartime. All of the "cooperation" is ultimately paid for by Australian taxpayers.
“然而，美英澳这一计划收益恐怕归美英，风险却独留给了澳大利亚。”她分析道，美英名义上称帮澳训练军官、技工，实则让澳海军在美英潜艇上服役、澳劳工供其造船厂调遣；名义上努力让澳尽早拥有核动力潜艇，实则为美英核潜艇尽快在澳访问、轮驻铺路；名义上帮助澳提升国防能力，实则将澳打造成美印太舰队的补充，平时做美核潜艇的维护基地、后勤保障基地，战时充当美抵近侦察的触角、远程攻击的助手。而上述种种“合作”，实际由澳大利亚纳税人买单。
The AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation has been criticized by the Australian people. "The Australian people's rejection of the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation is due to many realistic concerns," said Zhang Jie, Director of the Department of Asia-Pacific Security and Diplomatic Studies of the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. On the one hand, the plan is costly with a long cycle, and is influenced by political factors such as party struggles and regime changes in the US and Australia. It remains to be seen whether it can ultimately enhance Australia's defense capabilities. On the other hand, the plan may have an impact on the just-recovering China-Australia relationship and may provoke strong opposition from related countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia and will bring negative effects on Australia's diplomatic environment, economic and trade relations.
奥库斯核潜艇合作计划遭到了澳大利亚国内民众的批评。“澳大利亚民众对奥库斯核潜艇合作‘不买账’是出于许多现实担忧。”中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院亚太安全外交研究室主任张洁分析道，一方面，该计划耗资巨大、周期漫长，且受美国、澳大利亚党派斗争、政权更迭等政治因素影响，最终能否提升本国防御能力还要打很大的问号。另一方面，该计划对刚刚回暖的中澳关系可能带来冲击，而且引发印度尼西亚、马来西亚等相关国家的强烈反对，对澳大利亚的外交环境和经贸关系带来负面影响。
Guo believes that currently, Australia is facing high inflation, poor macroeconomic control effectiveness, increasing economic downturn pressure, and a distant prospect of restoring fiscal surplus. It will take at least 20 years for Australia to have homegrown nuclear submarines and most of the 368 billion Australian dollars will be used for infrastructure, purchasing American nuclear submarines, and supporting the construction of nuclear submarines in the UK. Under the circumstances of tight fiscal resources and economic pressure, the "treaty" signed by Australia will undoubtedly compete for people's livelihood resources.
郭春梅认为，当前，澳大利亚通胀高企，宏观调控效果不佳，经济下行压力增大，恢复财政盈余更是遥遥无期。澳大利亚要获得本国建造的核潜艇，至少还需20年时间，3680亿澳元中的大部分将用于投资基础设施、购买美核潜艇、资助英国建设核潜艇等。在财政资源紧缺、经济承压的情况下，澳大利亚签订的这个“条约”无疑在同民生抢夺资源。
The AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation has also been criticized by the international community. After the announcement of the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation plan, it was criticized by Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. The latter is concerned that the AUKUS will exacerbate the increasingly escalating regional arms race.
奥库斯核潜艇合作计划也饱受国际社会批评。奥库斯核潜艇合作计划公布后，遭到印度尼西亚和马来西亚等东南亚国家的批评。后者担心奥库斯协议将加剧日益升级的地区军备竞赛。
"The nuclear proliferation risk caused by the sharing of nuclear submarine technology is itself a controversial topic. The promotion of the AUKUS plan has prompted US regional allies such as Japan and the ROK to have the impulse to participate in the plan, which indirectly triggers an arms race and nuclear proliferation risks within the region, intensify the substantive military alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, push the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region towards camp confrontation and a new cold war, and bring negative effects to regional security," said Zhang.
“核动力潜艇技术分享引发的核扩散风险，本身是争议性话题。该计划的推进，使日本、韩国等美国的地区盟友也产生参与该计划的冲动，变相引发地区内部的军备竞赛和核扩散风险，加剧亚太地区军事联盟实质化，将亚太地区安全局势推向阵营对抗、新冷战的方向，为地区安全带来负面影响。”张洁说。
Editor's note: Originally published on People's Daily Overseas Edition, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
