By Kong Yisi and Xie Siqiang
孔亦思 谢思强
EU leaders reportedly said at the EU summit in Brussels on March 23 that they continued to support plans to accelerate the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, joint procurement and increased military production, including the supply of one million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine over the next 12 months.
据报道，欧盟领导人23日在布鲁塞尔欧盟峰会上表示，继续支持加快向乌克兰供应弹药、联合采购和增加军事生产的计划，包括在未来12个月内向乌供应100万枚火炮弹药。
Previously, under the agitation and pressure of the US, Western countries have repeatedly unified their positions on the issue of aid to Ukraine and continuously escalated their military aid to Ukraine. However, increasing military aid will not fundamentally change the course of the war, but will only make the Western countries increasingly involved in the conflict and further exacerbate the Ukraine crisis.
此前，在美国的鼓动和施压下，西方国家已经多次就援乌问题“统一立场”，不断升级对乌军事援助。然而，加码军援并不能从根本上改变战局走向，只会令西方国家越来越深地卷入这场冲突，进一步加剧乌克兰危机。
According to statistics, the total amount of military, financial and humanitarian aid committed by EU countries and institutions to Ukraine in 2022 is close to 52 billion euros. Among them, Germany is Europe's largest donor to Ukraine, followed by France. At present, Western countries' aid to Ukraine is showing the characteristics of a gradual increase. First, quality of weapons is continuously improved. The aided equipment has been expanded to air defense systems, main battle tanks and other advanced equipment in service. In the future, advanced fighters and long-range missiles may also be included. Second, driving effect is becoming more and more obvious. When Germany, as the bellwether in Europe, agreed to provide the Leopard-2 tank, other countries including Norway, Finland, Poland, Spain, and Portugal, announced a follow-up, and the UK also said to send Challenger-2 tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine's ambassador to France, Vadym Omelchenko revealed that the number of tanks several countries promised to provide has exceeded 300.
据统计，2022年欧盟国家与机构承诺向乌克兰提供的军事、财政和人道主义援助总额接近520亿欧元。其中，德国是欧洲最大对乌援助国，法国次之。目前来看，西方国家对乌援助正呈现“步步加码”特征：一是武器质量不断提高。援乌装备现已拓展至防空系统、主战坦克等现役先进装备，未来还有可能援乌先进战斗机、远程导弹等。二是带动效应愈加明显。当作为欧洲“领头羊”的德国同意援乌“豹”-2坦克后，挪威、芬兰、波兰、西班牙、葡萄牙等国纷纷表态将跟进援助该型坦克，英国也表示将提供“挑战者”-2坦克。乌驻法大使奥梅利琴科透露，多个国家承诺提供的重型坦克数量已超过300辆。
On the whole, the EU has multiple considerations behind its increased military aid to Ukraine, but these goals are difficult to achieve in the future. First, it is designed to prepare for a possible large-scale operation this year to help Ukraine conduct counteroffensive operations using Western tanks and other equipment. However, the Ukrainian troops will not be able to win with the limited number of advanced tanks. Western heavy tanks feature poor survivability, limited mobility in muddy, swampy areas, and are vulnerable to air attacks or antitank infantry in urban areas. Besides, there are difficulties in driving operation, maintenance and logistics support, and it is very difficult to work collaboratively with the existing Soviet-made equipment of the Ukrainian troops. Hence, the aided heavy tanks from the Western countries would only help to establish a balance of power on the battlefield but not fundamentally change the course of the war.
总体来看，欧盟加码对乌军事援助背后有多重考量，但这些目标未来恐难以实现。首先，加码军援旨在为今年可能发生的大规模作战做准备，助乌使用西方坦克等装备实施反攻行动。不过，乌军仅凭数量有限的先进坦克难有胜算。西方重型坦克生存能力堪忧，在泥泞的沼泽地区行动不便，在城市地区容易受到空中攻击或反坦克步兵袭击。再加上使用西方坦克存在驾驶操作、维修保养和后勤保障等困难，与乌军现有苏制装备协同行动难度很大。鉴于此，西方提供重型坦克只能有助于建立战场均势，不会从根本上改变战局走向。
Secondly, Western countries attempt to continue to deplete Russia through the regulation of military aid to Ukraine, but their efforts cannot shake Russia's strategic determination. At present, the local defense industry in Ukraine is basically paralyzed, and Ukrainian troops count on foreign aid to fight. Under the leadership of the US, the Western countries precisely controlled the number and types of weapons aided to Ukraine, attempting to make the war situation progress according to the Western will and lengthen the conflict process as much as possible, thus continuously depleting Russia. Meanwhile, Western countries also tried to gradually break through the upper limit of military aid through the strategy of "boiling frogs with warm water", testing Russia's bottom line of tolerance. However, Russia's strategic determination will not be easily shaken, and Russia recently expressed that the delivery of any new weapons to Ukraine would not affect Russia's achievement of its objectives.
其次，企图通过调控军援力度持续以乌耗俄，但西方国家援乌之举无法动摇俄战略决心。当前，乌克兰本土国防工业基本瘫痪，乌军完全依赖外国援助才能继续作战。在美国主导下，西方国家精确控制援乌武器的数量和种类，企图使战局按照西方意志进展，尽可能拉长冲突进程，从而持续耗俄弱俄。同时，西方国家也试图通过“温水煮青蛙”的策略逐步突破军援上限，试探俄罗斯的忍耐底线。不过，俄罗斯的战略决心不会轻易动摇，俄方近日表示，“向乌克兰运送任何新武器都不会影响俄实现其目标”。
Third, the United States and Europe coordinated their position of aid to Ukraine to highlight "alliance unity", but it is difficult to hide the deep contradictions and differences between the two sides. Previously, Germany hesitated to send the Leopard-2 tank to Ukraine but was forced to reach an agreement under alliance pressure. Although the US and Europe seem to be working collaboratively and following up simultaneously, in fact, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries have suffered most of the costs and expenses, while the US has taken the opportunity to make great profits and accelerate the transfer of industries and funds from European countries through the Inflation Reduction Act. In the face of structural conflicts of interest, the so-called US-Europe solidarity is only solidarity under the "America first", and the so-called fire suppression by the US is just adding fuel to the flames. The EU countries should be more conscious of the fact that it is in their long-term interests to push Russia and Ukraine to start the peace talks as soon as possible.
再次，美欧协调援乌立场以彰显“联盟团结”，但难掩双方深层矛盾分歧。此前，德国对援乌“豹”-2坦克颇为犹豫，但迫于同盟压力最终“达成一致”。美欧虽表面上“协同一致、同步跟进”，但实际上，自俄乌冲突爆发以来，欧洲国家承受了大部分的代价和成本，而美国却趁机大捞好处，通过《通胀削减法案》加速吸引欧洲国家的产业和资金转移。在结构性的利益冲突面前，美国所谓的美欧团结不过是“美国优先”下的团结，美国所谓的“灭火”不过是为冲突火上浇油。欧盟各国应该更加清醒地意识到，早日推动俄乌双方开启和谈进程，才是最符合自身长远利益的应有选择。
(The author is from the Academy of Military Sciences)
（作者单位：军事科学院）
