By Xiu Haiyun

许海云

Finland officially became the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on April 4, NATO's birthday. In response, Russia warned it would be forced to take "retaliatory measures" to address what it called security threats created by Finland's membership. Analysts point out that Finland's accession to NATO might fundamentally transform the strategic pattern of Europe and escalate the regional security risks.

4月4日是北约成立纪念日，芬兰在当天正式加入北约，成为北约第31个成员国。针对这一举动，俄方表示将被迫采取包含军事手段在内的措施予以回应，以消除芬兰加入北约后对俄国家安全造成的威胁。分析人士指出，芬兰加入北约恐将深刻改变欧洲战略格局，推升地区安全风险。

After the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Finland, the traditionally neutral state, took rapid "convergence" with NATO and filed an official petition for joining NATO in May 2022. Both Finland and NATO can get what they want from this eager appeal.

俄乌冲突爆发后，北欧传统中立国芬兰迅速向北约靠拢，并于2022年5月正式申请加入北约。芬兰急切入约，双方可谓各取所需。

In recent years, NATO directed by the US has intended to establish a new order of de-Russification in Europe and reshape the security framework of this region and even the whole world on such a basis. Since the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and NATO have been wild about ganging up with allies and forcing compliance by coercion, aiming to weaken the geo-strategic position of Russia in Europe. The accession of Finland will further expand the sphere of influence of NATO, which is conducive to maintaining the interest of Western countries. Meanwhile, Finland's enthusiastic initiative is schemed to obtain the security protection and seek development with the help from NATO.

近年来，美国主导的北约意在建立一种去俄罗斯化的欧洲新秩序，并在此基础上重塑欧洲乃至世界安全格局。俄乌冲突爆发后，美国与北约不断拉帮结派、胁迫站队，目的是削弱俄在欧洲的地缘战略地位。吸纳芬兰加入北约，可进一步扩大北约的势力范围，有助于维护美西方国家的利益。与之相应的，芬兰克服阻碍加入北约，是为了获得北约的“安全保护”，并借北约之力谋求发展。

Although NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reported it was the most rapid accession course in the history of NATO, there had been twists and turns actually. The concurrent application of Sweden is still not approved due to opposition from its member state Turkey and Hungary. The setbacks behind these reflect the ingrained internal contradictions of NATO. Continuous interruptions that emerged from Turkey and Hungary to Finland and Sweden have roots in their conflicts with each other, which also mirror their divided opinions on NATO's eastward expansion and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

尽管北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格称，这是北约历史上最快完成的入约进程，但实际上芬兰入约波折不断。与芬兰同期申请入约的瑞典，因未得到北约成员国土耳其与匈牙利的批准，至今仍被拒之门外。一波三折入约的背后，折射出北约根深蒂固的内部矛盾。表面上看，土耳其﹑匈牙利为芬兰与瑞典加入北约设置重重障碍，是因为彼此间的纷争。但事实上，这种反对也反映出北约内部对北约东扩乃至俄乌冲突的不同态度。

Many NATO member states and their people are discontented with the eastward expansion-led security control mode, ideology-centered diplomatic and security guidelines, and unilateral strategy for seeking private interest through small cliques or blocs in NATO. They are concerned about Finland's accession will not only intensify the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also enlarge their inner divergences and induce superficial interest conflicts. Although Finland has successfully joined the NATO, the contradictions and differences within the organization have not disappeared.

北约多个成员国及其民众不满北约以东扩为主导的安全管控模式﹑唯意识形态化的外交与安全方针，以及以“小圈子”“小集团”谋求自身利益的单边行为。在他们看来，芬兰加入北约不仅会使俄乌冲突升级加剧，还放大了北约内部分歧，将使成员国之间的利益纷争趋向表面化。虽然芬兰成功加入北约，但北约内部矛盾与分歧并未消失。

Finland's accession to NATO does no good for world peace and will arouse increasing negative influences on the wide society. Finland is the country with the longest land boundary with Russia among the EU members, with a mutual adjoining length of 1340 kilometers. This move means that the bordering range between NATO and Russia will double, and Finland will become the front line of confrontation between NATO and Russia. In the future, the two sides will start a new round of contests in the military deployment along the Finnish-Russian border, which will inevitably bring about more uncertainties to Finland's security.

芬兰加入北约，对世界和平无益，其产生的消极影响将不断扩散。芬兰是欧盟国家中与俄罗斯拥有最长陆上边界的国家，双方边界长度达1340公里。芬兰加入北约后，不仅意味着北约与俄罗斯边界扩展约1倍，也意味着芬兰将直接置身于北约与俄对抗的前沿。未来，北约与俄罗斯将围绕在芬俄边境的军事力量部署展开新一轮对抗，必然会给芬兰安全带来更多的不确定性。

What's more, after Finland joins NATO, the political, economic and security deneutralization strategies of some European countries will be further strengthened, thus expediting the bloc and camp inclination within Europe. Therefore, the competition between NATO and Russia will be stuck in a deadlocked situation for long, which will be bound to endanger regional security and exacerbate global instability.

更重要的是，随着芬兰加入北约，欧洲一些国家政治﹑经济以及安全“去中立化”将进一步加剧，进而加速欧洲内部的“集团化”“阵营化”趋势。在这一趋势的推动下，北约与俄罗斯的竞争将会长期化，而这势必推升地区安全风险，加剧全球局势动荡。

(The author is from School of History, Renming University of China)

（作者单位：中国人民大学历史学院）