By Haijing

海镜

At the end of March, the US government announced that it had notified Russia that it would stop exchanging some data on nuclear weapons. This move is seen by the outside world as a response to Russia's announcement in February on the suspension of the New START Treaty. Russian officials have repeatedly stated that both sides are still in contact regarding the implementation of the treaty, but progress has been minimal, and major breakthroughs can hardly be seen. Various signs indicate that the survival of the New START Treaty, as the only pillar of the current US-Russia bilateral arms control system, is in jeopardy, and this issue has attracted high attention from the international community.

3月底，美国政府称美方已通知俄方将停止交换一些核武器数据。此举被外界看作是对俄罗斯2月宣布暂停履行《新削减战略武器条约》的回应。近一段时间，俄罗斯官方多次表示，俄美双方仍在就履行这一条约的相关问题进行接触，但收效甚微，两国对话很难取得重大进展。种种迹象表明，作为当前美俄双边军控体系的唯一支柱，《新削减战略武器条约》的续存已经岌岌可危，这一问题引发国际社会高度关注。

The only remaining arms control treaty between the US and Russia

美俄之间现存唯一的军控条约

The New START Treaty was signed by Russia and the US in 2010, which came into force on February 5, 2011 and has a validity period of 10 years. On February 3, 2021, the two sides exchanged diplomatic notes and completed the internal procedures for extending the New START Treaty's validity period. The agreement came into effect immediately, and the treaty's validity period was extended to February 5, 2026, with no content changed.

《新削减战略武器条约》由俄美两国2010年签署，2011年2月5日生效，有效期10年。2021年2月3日，俄美双方互换外交照会，完成延长《新削减战略武器条约》有效期协议的相关内部程序，协议即日生效。条约有效期随后延长至2026年2月5日，内容保持不变。

The reason why this treaty was named "New" is because it reflects the latest results of the US-Russia nuclear arms reduction negotiations. The treaty mainly includes three aspects. First, the US and Russia can each deploy no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and 800 nuclear warhead delivery vehicles. Second, the compliance verification mechanism is clarified, and the two parties can conduct up to 18 on-the-spot verifications with short notice with each other annually. Third, it agrees to the establishment of the Bilateral Consultative Commission composed of nuclear experts from the US and Russia and the commission will hold meetings twice a year to discuss issues related to the implementation of the treaty. In addition, the treaty also stipulates that when one party moves strategic nuclear weapons for reasons such as deployment, maintenance, and repair, it needs to notify the other party.

这一条约之所以被冠名为“新”，主要是体现了美俄削减核武器谈判的最新成果。该条约主要包括三个方面的内容：一是限定美俄可各自部署不超过1550枚战略核弹头，以及800件核弹头运载工具。二是明确履约核查机制，规定双方每年可互相进行多达18次的“临时通知性质现场核查”。三是确定成立由美俄核专家组成的双边委员会，每年举行两次会议，讨论履约相关问题。此外，该条约还规定，美俄中的一方以部署、维护和修理等理由移动战略核武器时，需要通知对方。

The New START Treaty has great significance, and it plays a critical role as a global strategic stabilizer. The US and Russia possess more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons. Limiting the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons by both countries and reducing the number of deployed nuclear weapons to the lowest level in over half a century is conducive to maintaining global security. It should be emphasized that after the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between Russia and the US in 2019, the New START Treaty has become the only arms control treaty between the two countries. Its continuation or termination will have an important impact on global strategic stability and the international arms control system.

《新削减战略武器条约》可谓意义重大，发挥着全球“战略稳定器”的关键作用。美俄拥有全世界90%以上的核武器，限制两国对战略核武器的投入，将双方部署的核武器数量削减到半个多世纪以来的最低点，有利于维护全球安全。需要强调的是，俄美《中导条约》2019年失效后，这一条约已成为两国间唯一的军控条约，其续存与否将对全球战略稳定和国际军控体系产生重要影响。

Nuclear arms control negotiations have once again become a means of game

核军控谈判再次成为博弈手段

Currently, the on-the-spot verifications specified in the New START Treaty have been suspended for three years, and the bilateral commission established under the treaty has long ceased operations. In fact, the treaty had already been paralyzed before Russia announced the suspension of its compliance in February. The root cause of this situation is the new round of power struggles and games between the US and Russia.

如今，《新削减战略武器条约》所规定的“临时通知性质现场核查”已经被搁置3年，根据条约成立的双边委员会也早已停止运作。事实上，早在俄罗斯2月宣布暂停履约前，该条约就进入了“瘫痪期”。造成这种局面的根源，是美俄的新一轮角力和博弈。

From a military perspective, there are significant structural contradictions between the US and Russia in arms control. In recent years, the two sides have had constant disputes over the contents specified in the New START Treaty. The US hopes to include Russia's Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, Avangard hypersonic missiles, Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedoes, Burevestnik (Petrel) nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and many other new weapons in the agenda of strategic arms reduction to achieve the goal of containing Russia. In response, Russia has proposed that the US has not fulfilled its nuclear disarmament obligations stipulated in the treaty, and that the US missile defense systems and space weapons should also be included in the New START Treaty.

从军事层面上看，美俄在军控问题上存在很大的结构性矛盾。近年来，双方围绕《新削减战略武器条约》所规定的内容龃龉不断。美国希望将俄方的“萨尔马特”洲际弹道导弹、“先锋”远程高超声速导弹、“波塞冬”核动力鱼雷、“海燕”核动力巡航导弹等众多新武器，一揽子纳入战略武器削减的议程中，以达到遏制俄罗斯的目的。作为反制，俄罗斯提出，美方尚未完成条约规定的核裁军义务，且美方的反导系统、太空武器等也应被纳入军控条约之内。

Objectively speaking, the treaty is of great significance to both sides when their relations are relatively stable. For the US, the treaty's existence can help restrict Russia's strategic nuclear forces in a verifiable manner. For Russia, the treaty's continuation is beneficial to maintaining its position in the international strategic stability field, easing confrontation with the US, and avoiding being dragged into a costly arms race. This time, Russia's announcement to suspend compliance is mainly aimed at using nuclear deterrence to counterbalance NATO, especially when the US' ongoing military aid to Ukraine continues.

客观来说，在美俄关系相对平稳的时期，该条约对双方都有重要意义。从美方的角度看，条约的存在能实现以可验证的方式限制俄战略核力量。从俄方的角度看，条约的延续有利于维护其在国际战略稳定领域的地位，缓和与美国的对抗，避免被拖入代价高昂的军备竞赛。此次，俄罗斯宣布暂停履约，主要意图在于以核威慑手段制衡北约，特别是美国对乌克兰军事援助的不断加码。

Discontinuation of the treaty will exacerbate global security risks

条约失效将加剧全球安全风险

For now, neither the US nor Russia wants to be labeled as a treaty-breaker. While Russia has announced the suspension of compliance, it has not said it will withdraw from the treaty, which left the option open for the future. When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of compliance on February 21, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that "the decision to suspend the New START Treaty can be reversed if Washington takes honest efforts towards general de-escalation and the creation of conditions for resuming the comprehensive operation of the Treaty".

目前，美俄双方都不想落下“毁约”的恶名。俄方虽然表示“暂停履约”，但没有说“退出条约”，保留了回旋空间。2月21日，在俄罗斯总统普京宣布“暂停履约”的同一天，俄外交部发表声明称，如果美国愿意为缓和局势和恢复条约全面运作创造条件，俄方的决定“是可以逆转的”。

As the hostility between the two countries continues to escalate due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it also means that both countries are finding it difficult to make substantive compromises or concessions on key arms control issues. It is foreseeable that in the short term, US-Russia relations are unlikely to return to the state when the treaty was born. In addition, the US is accelerating the development of missile defense systems, lasers, and space weapons, and is continuously striving to catch up in the field of hypersonic missiles, and even intentionally proliferating nuclear technology. All these actions are shaking the foundation of stable US-Russian strategic relations.

随着美俄围绕俄乌冲突引发的对抗愈演愈烈，双方国内对彼此的敌对情绪不断高涨，这也意味着两国都难以在关键的军控问题上率先作出实质性的妥协或让步。可以预见，短期内美俄关系很难回到条约诞生时的状态。此外，美国正在加紧发展反导系统以及激光、太空武器等，并在高超声速导弹等领域不断发力追赶，甚至故意选择性地扩散核技术，这些举动都是在动摇美俄战略关系稳定的基础。

The New START Treaty between the US and Russia has been largely undermined at present. Given the status quo of US-Russia relations, even if there is no withdrawal from the treaty, it will face significant challenges in extending beyond its expiration date in 2026. If the treaty no longer exists, it will have a significant negative impact on US-Russia nuclear arms control and even global security. As a result, the possible nuclear arms race could significantly increase global security risks.

总之，《新削减战略武器条约》目前已经被基本架空，鉴于美俄关系的现状，即便没有出现退约的情况，该条约2026年到期后能否延续也将面临重重困难。一旦该条约不复存在，将对美俄核军控乃至全球安全态势造成重大负面影响，可能出现的核军备竞赛将严重加剧全球安全风险。