Why US, Philippines hype South China Sea arbitration award?

美菲再度炒作南海仲裁意欲何为?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Wang Xinjuan
Time
2023-04-17 19:06:36

By Yang Danzhi

杨丹志

The military cooperation between the US and the Philippines has continuously escalated recently. After a gap of seven years, the two sides held a 2+2 foreign and defense ministerial dialogue again and announced a joint statement to hype the award of South China Sea arbitration. Complicated motives lurk behind these series of actions of the two countries and there are three main purposes of the strengthened military activities for the US.

近期,美国和菲律宾军事合作呈现持续强化态势。双方在时隔7年后举行外长、防长2+2对话并发表联合声明,再次炒作南海仲裁。美菲近期一系列动作有着复杂的动机。美国在菲律宾加强军事活动主要有三个目的:

First, to consolidate the US-Philippine military alliance. The US expects to repair, solidify and elevate its relations with the Philippines during the administration of the Marcos government. To this end, it intensifies military assistance and bilateral military cooperation with the Philippines on the pretext of helping the latter promote maritime capability construction and achieve military modernization, including scheming a military development roadmap in ten years for the country. Its intent is to expand its influence in the Philippine military and exert more control on the alliance mechanism.

一是强化美菲军事同盟。美方期待在小马科斯政府任内,美菲关系能够得到修复、巩固和提升。为此,美国以帮助菲律宾加强海上能力建设和实现军事现代化为由,增加对菲律宾军事援助力度和强化双边军事合作,包括为菲律宾未来10年军力发展设计路线图。美国意在以此加强对菲律宾军方的影响力和对美菲同盟机制的控制力。

Second, to prepare for larger-scale regional conflicts and wars. America's "shoulder to shoulder" exercise with the Philippines in 2023 has been the largest joint military exercise between the two countries so far with 17600 soldiers participating, the scale of which is doubled compared to that of 2022. The exercise even involves subjects including biological warfare and chemical warfare.

二是为更大规模的地区冲突和战争作准备。2023年,美菲“肩并肩”联合军演是迄今为止规模最大的美菲联合军演,共约1.76万人参加,人数约为2022年度军演的两倍,演习内容甚至包括生物战、化学战。

From the perspective of scale and intensity, this joint exercise has reached far beyond the necessity to maintain the security of the Philippines, but prepares for larger-scale regional conflicts and wars, with the target of "safeguarding" the absolute security of the US and maintaining its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific.

从规模和强度看,美菲此次联合军事演习已经远远超出维护菲律宾安全的范畴,实则是为更大规模的地区冲突和战争作准备,意图“捍卫”美国的“绝对安全”和在亚太的霸权地位。

Third, to strengthen regional presence and precautions in tandem with besieging China. The US and the Philippines continuously expand cooperation fields and take specific measures on the basis of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) concluded in 2014. The US vigorously urged the Philippines to agree to open another four military bases for it, in order to accelerate their interference capabilities in the situations of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea and further contain and deter China from two directions.

三是增强地区存在感和防范、围堵中国。在2014年达成的《增强部队防务合作协议》基础上,美菲继续扩充合作内容并具体落实。美方积极促成菲律宾方面同意对美追加开放四个军事基地,通过在四个基地的军事部署,美方可以强化未来对台海和南海事态的介入能力,在台海和南海两个方向对中国形成牵制和威慑。

The Philippines' increased military cooperation with the US is driven by several complicated domestic and international factors. First, its military modernization progress has long stagnated, so it expects assistance and support from the US. Second, it wishes to counterbalance China and the US on the South China Sea issue. Third, its domestic political situations have a role. Different political powers often attack each other and scramble to play the card of nationalism to divert their people's attention and stir up national sentiment. For these reasons, the Philippines has further converged with the US on security issues recently and has even been "bounded" with the US to some extent.

菲律宾强化与美国军事合作,有着复杂的国内和国际动因。一是菲律宾军事现代化进程长期停滞,菲方期待得到美国的援助和支持。二是在南海问题上,菲律宾希望借助美国平衡中国。三是菲律宾国内政治因素作用。菲律宾不同政治势力之间经常相互攻讦,竞相打出民族主义牌,转移国内视线,煽动民族情绪。正是上述原因,导致菲律宾近期在安全上进一步趋近美国,甚至在某种程度上“绑定”美国。

This kind of security "binding" with the US may mean tremendous risk for the Philippines. In particular, the Philippines which has been put on the frontline may be dragged into disasters in case of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. The US intensified interference in the affairs of the South China Sea by exploiting the military bases of the Philippines will inevitably heighten tensions in the South China Sea, and the Philippines will lose the space and room for flexibility in negotiating and dealing with the South China Sea issue with other countries. Therefore, hyping the award of South China Sea arbitration through 2+2 ministerial dialogue is not a wise decision for the Philippines.

对于菲律宾而言,这种在安全上与美国的“绑定”可能意味着巨大的风险。特别是一旦台海有事,处于前沿地带的菲律宾将可能被殃及。美国利用在菲基地强化对南海事态的介入,也必然加剧南海局势的紧张,菲律宾也会失去与他国协商灵活处理南海问题的空间和余地。因此,此次美菲“2+2对话”再次炒作南海仲裁,对于菲律宾而言并非明智之举。

Although President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had emphasized the independent diplomatic policy of Philippines on many occasions and stressed that US accession to its military bases is out of consideration for safeguarding its national security instead of attacking other countries. However, some Philippine dignitaries and strategists including his sister Imee Marcos who is serving in the Congress of the Philippines, and Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte are concerned about the current policy adjustment toward the US and its potential risks. And some local politicians of this country also worry that strengthened US-Philippine military cooperation will damage the China-Philippine economic cooperation and influence China's investment in the Philippines.

虽然菲律宾总统小马科斯也在多个场合强调强调菲律宾外交政策的独立性,强调对美开放军事基地主要出于维护菲律宾国家安全考虑,而不是出于进攻他国目的。但包括任职于菲律宾国会的小马科斯的姐姐伊米安.马科斯,以及菲律宾现任副总统莎拉在内的菲律宾部分政要和战略界人士对菲当下的对美政策调整方向及其风险均存有顾虑,也有部分菲律宾地方官员担心,美菲军事合作强化会导致中菲经贸合作受损,影响中国对菲投资。

Suppose the Marcos government has the intention to reinforce its independent foreign policy, it ought to break away from the impediment and interference of external forces and steps up in strategic coordination and practical cooperation with China. Joint devotion to regional security and prosperity aligns with the mutual interest of both China and the Philippines.

若小马科斯政府真有意强化菲律宾外交政策的独立性,就应当摆脱域外势力的掣肘和干扰,加强与中国的战略沟通和务实合作。中菲共同致力于地区安全和繁荣发展,符合双方的利益。

(The author is a doctor at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (NIIS CASS) and a senior researcher on national security studies at Renmin University of China)

(作者是中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院博士、中国人民大学国家安全研究院高级研究员)

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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