By Niu Song

钮松

A senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip confirmed on May 13 that a ceasefire deal had been reached between the PIJ and Israel under the mediation of Egypt and it came into effect at 10 pm that day.

当地时间5月13日晚，加沙地带的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织（杰哈德）高级官员证实，在埃及斡旋下，杰哈德与以色列的停火协议已经达成，并于当天22时生效。

The conflict was sparked by Israeli attacks on the PIJ. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched Operation "Shield and Arrow" and carried out airstrikes on multiple PIJ military targets in the Gaza Strip, resulting in 12 deaths, including three senior PIJ members. In response, the PIJ began firing a large number of rockets toward southern and central areas of Israel from the afternoon of May 10. The IDF continued to carry out airstrikes on PIJ military targets.

此次冲突由以色列对杰哈德的袭击引发。5月9日，以色列国防军发动“盾箭行动”，空袭加沙地带多处杰哈德军事目标，造成12人死亡，其中包括3名杰哈德高级成员。作为回应，杰哈德从10日午后开始向以色列南部和中部地区发射大量火箭弹。以军则持续对杰哈德军事目标发动空袭。

This is the second large-scale conflict between Palestine and Israel this month. Khader Adnan, a senior PIJ member who was on a hunger strike in an Israeli prison, died in the early hours of May 2. The southern part of Israel was attacked by rockets from the Gaza Strip that afternoon, and the IDF dispatched fighter jets at night and launched air strikes on multiple military targets in the Gaza Strip. Under the mediation of Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement on May 3.

这是巴以双方本月以来发生的第二次大规模冲突。5月2日凌晨，在以色列监狱中绝食抗议的杰哈德高级成员阿德南身亡。以南部当天下午便遭到来自加沙地带的火箭弹袭击，以军在夜间出动战斗机对加沙地带多个军事目标发动空袭。在埃及、卡塔尔和联合国斡旋下，双方于3日达成停火协议。

From a micro perspective, the two rounds of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that occurred in May can be seen as a continuation of the ongoing tensions between the two sides since the beginning of this year. Since the formation of the far-right coalition government led by Benjamin Netanyahu in late 2022, Israel has taken more aggressive actions on issues such as the Temple Mount in Old City of Jerusalem (referred to as the Noble Sanctuary by Muslims) and Jewish settlements. In January, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's first National Security Minister, entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound on the Temple Mount, sparking a series of confrontations and conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians. Israeli police entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque and clashed with Palestinians inside the mosque on April 5. This led to an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The death of senior PIJ member Adnan further exacerbated the tensions between the two sides.

5月发生的两次巴以冲突，从微观角度看，是今年初以来巴以冲突的延续。自2022年底以内塔尼亚胡为首的极右翼六党联盟新政府上台以来，以色列在耶路撒冷老城的圣殿山（穆斯林称为尊贵禁地）和犹太人定居点等问题上的行动更加激进。今年1月，以色列首任国家安全部长本-格维尔进入位于圣殿山的阿克萨清真寺广场，此后巴以之间的对抗和冲突接连不断。4月5日，以色列警方进入阿克萨清真寺，并与寺内的巴勒斯坦人发生冲突。这一事件直接导致巴以冲突再次升级。而杰哈德高级成员阿德南的死亡，进一步激化了巴以关系。

From a macro perspective, these two conflicts are the latest manifestations of the continued deterioration of Palestinian-Israeli relations. With the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, the start of the Middle East peace process once brought the international community the dawn of peace between Palestine and Israel. However, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in November 1995, which cast a shadow over the exploring path of Palestine-Israel reconciliation. In 2000, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon forcibly entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which triggered the second Palestinian uprising. Since then, the Middle East peace process has stalled. At the same time, Palestine has also fallen into a state of division, that is, the contradiction between Fatah and Hamas has intensified, and a confrontation model of "two countries, three sides" between Israel, Fatah and Hamas has gradually formed. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is increasingly manifested as a conflict between Israel and Hamas, and Israel's strike targets are mainly concentrated in the Gaza Strip. In recent years, the confrontational conflict between Israel and PIJ has escalated. Israel tries to treat PIJ and Hamas differently, to prevent PIJ and Hamas from joining forces to resist Israel.

从宏观角度看，这两次冲突是巴以关系持续恶化的最新展现。随着1993年“奥斯陆协议”的签订，中东和平进程的开启曾令国际社会看到巴以和平的曙光。然而，1995年11月以色列总理拉宾遇刺身亡，给探索中的巴以和解之路蒙上了阴影。2000年，以色列总理沙龙强行进入阿克萨清真寺广场事件，更是引发第二次巴勒斯坦大起义。此后，中东和平进程陷入停滞。同时，巴勒斯坦也陷入分裂状态，即法塔赫与哈马斯的矛盾加剧，并逐步形成以色列、法塔赫、哈马斯“两国三边”的对抗模式。巴以冲突日益表现为以色列与哈马斯之间的冲突，以色列的打击目标主要集中在加沙地带。近年来，以色列与杰哈德之间的对抗性矛盾有所升级。以色列试图区别对待杰哈德与哈马斯，以最大限度地避免出现杰哈德与哈马斯联手抗以的局面。

The Middle East has ushered in a wave of reconciliation since March this year, which has put a certain amount of strategic pressure on Israel. On March 19, Egypt hosted the five-party talks in Sharm El-Sheikh attended by Palestine, Israel, Jordan, the US, and Egypt to ease the situation between Palestine and Israel. However, it takes more than one cold day for the river to freeze three feet deep, after Israel's far-right government came to power, members of the ruling coalition continued to cross the red line on the issue of religious holy sites and Jewish settlements in Jerusalem. The political forces in Palestine are clearly divided and they could not form a joint force to counter Israel, and the attitudes of various parties towards Israel are also different. There is little hope of a fundamental reconciliation of Palestine-Israel relations in the foreseeable future.

自今年3月以来，中东地区迎来“和解潮”，这对以色列产生了一定的战略压力。3月19日，埃及主持召开由巴勒斯坦、以色列、约旦、美国和埃及5国人员参加的沙姆沙伊赫五方会谈，旨在缓和巴以局势。然而，“冰冻三尺非一日之寒”。以色列极右翼政府上台后，执政联盟成员在耶路撒冷的宗教圣地和犹太人定居点问题上不断越过“红线”；巴勒斯坦内部的政治势力分化明显，无法在反制以色列上形成合力，各派对以态度也存在较大差异。未来一段时期内，巴以关系实现根本性和解希望渺茫。

(The author is a researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University)

（作者为上海外国语大学中东研究所研究员）