By Xu Haiyun
许海云
The 10-day NATO Air Defender 2023 joint military exercise wrapped up in Germany on June 23. This aerial exercise launched at an acutely sensitive time has aroused widespread attention and concerns from the international community.
6月23日，为期10天的北约“空中卫士-2023”联合军事演习在德国落幕。这场在当前极为敏感的时间节点展开的空军演习，吸引国际社会普遍关注，也引发普遍担忧。
Unlike previous routine military exercises, Air Defender 2023 has inaugurated an unprecedentedly large-scale aerial exercise in the recent history of NATO, featuring rarely large deployment of aircraft and personnel, a vast number of participating countries, and wide geographical coverage, which is said to be the largest scale of air movement exercise according to foreign media reports. Although nearly half of the involved aircraft were sent by the US, the German Air Force also acted as the main force in this exercise, which fully reflected NATO's intention to build Germany as the core of future European operations against Russia.
和以往的例行性军演不同，“空中卫士-2023”开创了近年来北约大规模空军演习的先河,其动用的飞机与人员之多，参演国数量之多，覆盖地域之广，均堪称北约史上少有，据外媒报道，这也被认为是北约“最大规模”空军转移演习。尽管参演战机近半数为美国派出，但德国空军同样充当军演主力，这充分显示了北约将德国打造为未来欧洲抗俄核心的意图。
In the imaginary context of an attack on NATO countries, the exercise was held close to Russia, which was alleged by the initiator to demonstrate the defensive posture of the alliance. Such undisguised fabrication of maximum military pressure through the instigation and deterrence means of NATO makes distinct the antagonistic inclination and dangerousness of the exercise.
演习以北约国家受到攻击为假想背景，紧贴俄罗斯周边活动，但北约方面却声称其旨在展示北约的“防御”态势。北约如此不加掩饰，采用拱火和威慑手段，构造极限军事施压，其对抗性与危险性不言而喻。
Historically, NATO has demonstrated its influence in international affairs through three most direct techniques: extraterritorial armed intervention, military exercises and deterrence, and humanitarian assistance. Among them, the second one has always been the most frequently used and normalized method to show itself by the organization. It stems from its political and military kidnapping by the US and a legacy military tradition from the Cold War.
历史上，北约在国际事务中展示其影响的最直接方式主要有三种：域外武装干涉、军事演习与威慑、人道主义救援。其中，军事演习与威慑始终是北约使用频率最高、最常态化“展现自我”的方式，这既源于美国对北约的政治与军事绑架，也源于北约作为冷战遗留的军事传统。
Since the end of the Cold War, various names of military exercises of NATO have grown instead of shrinking, involving almost all fields ranging from large exercises within the boundary of different European regions to small ones for the defense purpose of the member states. Air Defender 2023 is just one of many deterrent exercises conducted by NATO. This so-called historically largest scale of aerial exercise let the whole world witness that this organization has been addicted and stuck in the endless cycle of military exercises and deterrence. This will no doubt seriously endanger the security of Europe and bring more uncertainties to world peace and stability.
冷战结束后，北约各类军演不减反增，几乎涉及所有领域，大到以欧洲不同区域为界的演习，小到以北约各成员国防御为目标的演习。“空中卫士-2023”只是北约为威慑而举行的众多军演之一。这场所谓史上“最大规模”的空军演习，让世界看到了沉迷于“军演+威慑”循环而难以自拔的北约。这无疑将给欧洲安全造成严重伤害，也将给世界和平与稳定带来更多不确定性。
The Russia-Ukraine conflict deepens the geopolitical competition in Europe. As traditional major powers in Europe, Russia and Germany face an increasingly deteriorated or even long antagonistic relationship with each other, which will lead to geopolitical and economic crises in the continent. In this new lengthy, more profound crisis, European countries will have nowhere to hide.
俄乌冲突加深了欧洲地缘竞争。作为欧洲传统大国，俄德关系趋于恶化甚至陷入长期对立，将引发欧洲地缘政治与经济危机。在这场新的且更为持久深入的危机中，欧洲国家将无处可遁。
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered a worldwide food crisis and energy crisis. Suppose a new round of crisis persists for a long time. In that case, the European economy will be dragged down to a greater extent, and political, social, cultural, ethnic, and other problems will further increase in this region. Regional countries will have to pay a greater price for that, and even the whole world will be affected by the willfulness of NATO.
俄乌冲突已经引发了世界性粮食危机与能源危机，若新一轮危机长期延续，欧洲经济将会受到更大程度拖累，欧洲政治、社会、文化、种族等各种问题也会进一步增多，欧洲国家届时将不得不付出更大的代价，甚至世界各国也会因为北约的任性而受到影响。
Superficially, Air Defender 2023 seems to enhance Germany's discourse power in European security affairs. However, the real result is that European countries are further dependent on the US, which further controls its European allies with the assistance of NATO. The reason is that European countries' greater confrontation against Russia will rebound intensely from the other side, making themselves inseparable from the "military protection" of the US.
表面上看，“空中卫士-2023”似乎强化了德国在欧洲安全事务中的话语权，但实际结果却是欧洲国家进一步依附于美国，美国也借助北约进一步控制欧洲盟国。因为欧洲国家与俄罗斯对抗烈度愈大，俄罗斯的反弹也会愈激烈，欧洲国家也就愈离不开美国的“军事保护”。
In that case, European countries will get further away from the so-called strategic autonomy wish.
届时，欧洲国家距离所谓的“战略自主”会越来越远。
(The author is a professor at the School of History, Renmin University of China.)
（作者系中国人民大学历史学院教授）
