By Ling Yunzhi

凌云志

US-Japan-ROK joint anti-missile exercise featuring Aegis destroyers

美日韩三国“宙斯盾”战舰举行联合反导演习。

Leaders of the US, Japan and ROK announced after their Camp David summit that the three countries will carry out more joint military exercises and improve trilateral security cooperation mechanism to coordinate their response to regional challenges and threats. It's getting clearer that the trilateral security cooperation is undertaking substantive changes.

近日，美国、日本和韩国的领导人在“戴维营峰会”后宣布，将开展更多的军事联演，以协调对地区挑战和威胁的应对，美日韩三方进一步将防务合作机制化。种种迹象显示，美日韩三边安全合作正在出现实质性变化。

Recent years have seen the Japan-ROK relationship significantly improved under the mediation of the US. The promotion of their exclusive cooperation has not only intensified tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but also undermined the strategic stability in Asia Pacific.

近年来，在美国的大力主导下，日韩关系大幅改善，三国意欲通过构建封闭排他性地缘政治“小圈子”，打造“铁三角”同盟。美日韩合作升级，不仅加剧了朝鲜半岛紧张局势，也给亚太地区战略稳定埋下重大隐患。

The US-Japan alliance and US-ROK alliance are two pillars propping up Washington's Asian Pacific alliance system, but the other two countries, owing to historical issues and disputes, are not as close "pals" as Washington wishes. After Biden took office, his administration has actively improved the Japan-ROK relations and the coordination and interaction among the three has consequently been reinforced. In June 2023, their defense ministers signed a Joint Press Statement after meeting in Singapore, reiterating the importance of deepening their cooperation on key issues, including information sharing, high-level policy consultations, and trilateral exercises.

美日同盟和美韩同盟是美国亚太同盟体系的两大支柱。但是，日韩两国长期受制于历史遗留问题，关系并不紧密，成为美日韩三边关系中的“短边”。拜登政府上台后，积极推动日韩关系走近，美日韩三方的协调和互动也随之进一步加强。2023年6月，美日韩三国防长在新加坡举行会晤，签署了《美日韩三国部长会议联合声明》，重申要深化三方在关键问题上的合作，包括信息共享、高级别政策磋商和联合军事演习等。

The three countries have also strengthened joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and collaboration mechanisms on the excuse of tension on the Korean Peninsula. In April 2023, they held two military exercises in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan, covering real-combat subjects like anti-submarine operations, search and rescue, anti-missile operations, and interception on the sea. In March 2023, Seoul officially restored the General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, with Tokyo, which restarted the exchange of military intelligence between the two countries, and placed the intelligence-sharing as a key to repair and deepen bilateral relationships. Presently, the US, Japan and ROK have also put on the agenda a plan to form a "Northeast Asian Three Eyes Alliance", which, apart from intelligence about DPRK's missile launch, may also cover other domains.

此外，三国还利用朝鲜半岛紧张局势，不断加强联合军演、情报共享、合作机制等建设。2023年4月，美日韩在东海和日本海举行了两场军演，涉及反潜、搜救、反导、海上拦截等多个实战性科目。2023年3月，韩方宣布正式恢复《韩日军事情报保护协定》，重启与日本的军事情报交流，并将情报合作作为韩日关系修复并进一步深化的核心，不断推进情报共享机制。目前，美日韩三国已经将组建“东北亚三眼联盟”也提上日程，除了涉及朝鲜导弹发射等军事情报外，不排除未来还将分享其他领域情报的可能性。

Washington's efforts to improve the Tokyo-Seoul relationship are aimed at furthering its Indo-Pacific strategy and elevating its regional competitiveness.

对于美国来说，积极推动日韩关系走近，其目的主要是深化“印太战略”布局，提升地区竞争力。

Given the aggravating major-country competition around the globe and America's declining national strength, the hub-and-spoke system the US has been keeping in the Asia Pacific through a series of bilateral pacts is no longer enough to sustain the "Indo-Pacific strategy". To maintain its regional dominance, Washington has to integrate these bilateral allies into several "small multilateral alliances" and gradually merge them into a NATO-like "large multilateral alliance".

由于全球大国博弈加剧与美国综合国力的相对下降，此前美国在亚太地区通过众多双边盟友协定保持的“轴辐体系”已经不足以实现其“印太战略”构想，因此只有推动将诸多双边盟友整合为多个“小多边同盟体系”，最终促成一个类似北约的“大多边同盟体系”形成，才能有效维持美国的地区霸权。

The US has made constant moves in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific in recent years and has formed "small multilateral alliances" successively from Quad (US-Japan-Australia-India) to AUKUS (US-UK-Australia) to the Five Eyes (US-UK-Canada-Australia-New Zealand). It's a cut-and-dried modus operandi – creating tension and then forming alliances to maintain hegemony in the name of safeguarding security. ROK and Japan, for their unique geo-strategic location, hold special value in America's alliance system.

近年来，美国在印度洋和太平洋地区动作频频，从美日澳印“四边机制”到美英澳“奥库斯”联盟再到美英加澳新“五眼联盟”，诸多“小多边同盟”陆续成型，均是先制造紧张局势，再以维护安全之名行维持霸权之实。在这些盟国中，韩国和日本由于具有独特的地缘战略位置，在美国的同盟体系中具有重要的价值。

By trying to break the ice between Japan and the ROK and facilitating their military development, the US attempted to tie them onto its chariot of war and turned them into the cat's paw in maintaining its hegemony. The two countries can act in coordination to contain DPRK and curb China and Russia, serve America's interests, and put a stronger strategic check on major countries in the region.

美国极力撮合日韩“破冰”，给两国发展军力松绑，其意图是将两国绑上自己的战车，充当其争夺霸权的“马前卒”，使日韩在遏压朝鲜、牵制中俄上发挥协同效应，心甘情愿地为美国利益服务，同时加大对地区大国的战略牵制。

Although three countries have been deepening defense collaboration and made some results, the prospects of the trilateral alliance are not as optimistic as it seems since their interests don't totally match and each country has its own ax to grind.

但从未来发展来看，虽然美日韩在防务合作上不断深化，取得了诸多成就，由于三方各怀心思，利益诉求不完全重合，未来发展前景并不明朗。

In fact, Japan and the ROK do have some concerns over America's strategic intention. They realize that once a trilateral alliance is established, they will be exposed to more dangers as their "big brother" is very likely to push them to the forefront of conflict. Some Japanese analysts pointed out that once a conflict broke out in Asia Pacific, Japan would bear the brunt while America would keep a distance. ROK media also held that it would be a dangerous game to go ahead with a quasi-alliance with Japan before convincing the public because a real reconciliation has not materialized between the two countries. Structural problems such as disputes over island sovereignty and historical issues have not been effectively resolved and will probably affect bilateral relations in the long term.

实际上，日本和韩国对美国的战略意图也是顾虑重重。两国都认识到了一旦建立三国同盟，很有可能被美国推到冲突的最前线，从而面临更多危险。例如，有日本分析人士指出，一旦亚太地区发生冲突，遭到冲击的将首先会是日本，美国可能会置身事外。韩国媒体也认为，韩国政府在没有说服舆论的情况下推进韩日准同盟化是“危险赌博”，两国之间并没有实现真正的和解，有关岛屿主权争端、历史遗留问题等结构性矛盾并没有得到有效解决并可能将长期影响两国关系的未来走向。

Therefore, although the US, Japan and ROK have kept deepening their defense cooperation and reaped some results from it, the prospects are by no means sanguine considering their varied strategic objectives, mismatched interests, and many other hindrances.

在这种情况下，虽然美日韩三国在防务合作上不断深化并取得了诸多成就，但由于三方在根本战略目标上各怀心思，利益诉求也不完全重合，面临诸多掣肘因素，因此未来发展前景并不明朗。

(The author is a researcher at the Centre for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, Nanjing University)

（作者是是南京大学亚太发展研究中心研究员。）

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.