凌云志

By Ling Yunzhi

近日，加拿大派出“渥太华”号护卫舰与美国“约翰逊”驱逐舰联合过航台湾海峡并公开炒作。这是今年以来美加第二次联合过航台湾海峡，也是加拿大第四次追随美国过航台湾海峡。加拿大近年来一直跟随美军不断在亚太地区进行挑衅，甘心充当美国在亚太地区的马前卒和打手。

Recently, Canada sent the HMCS Ottawa frigate to jointly sail through the Taiwan Strait with the USS Ralph Johnson destroyer and publicly hyped up this event. This is the second time that the two countries jointly sailed through the Taiwan Strait this year, and also the fourth for Canada to do so by tagging along with the US. In recent years, Canada has continuously followed the US' suit to make provocations in the Asia-Pacific region, acting as its pawn and henchman.

此次加拿大派出军舰与美舰一起穿越台湾海峡是一次有预谋、有规划的行动，试图通过挑衅台海来刺激我国，同时向一些“台独”分子释放错误信号，企图制造台海冲突，但是，由于受到自身实力及国际制约因素影响，并不会产生明显效果。

The Canadian warship's sailing through the Taiwan Strait with the US destroyer was a premeditated and calculated move, attempting to stimulate China and send wrong signals to some Taiwan separatists by creating trouble and conflicts in the Strait. However, it is unlikely to yield significant results owing to Canada's strength and international constraints.

首先，在自身实力上，加拿大长期以来一直将安全寄托于北约和美国，军事力量活动主要集中在非传统安全领域，展开海外大规模军事行动的能力并不强。目前，加拿大的军费开支仅占GDP的1.3%左右，能够真正投入到印太地区实施军事行动的数额并不多。同时，加拿大并不像美国那样在亚太地区有较多的战略支点和海外基地，因此在亚太地区的军事存在和影响力根本不值一提，更不会构成全面威胁。

First, in terms of strength, Canada has long placed its security on NATO and the US and concentrated its military activities in non-traditional security fields, thus lacking the ability to launch large-scale military operations overseas. At present, Canada's military expenditure only accounts for about 1.3% of its national GDP, with a small investment in practical military operations in the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, Canada does not have as many geostrategic fulcrums and overseas bases as the US in the Asia-Pacific, so its military presence and influence in the region are unnoticeable, not constituting a comprehensive threat at all.

此外，加拿大在防务和安全方面缺乏战略自主性，特别是在战略和外交上唯美国马首是瞻，很多安全问题仰赖于美加之间的合作，这也就意味着在更多的时候加拿大实际上扮演的是配合角色。例如，虽然加拿大战舰已经不止一次在台海横穿窜航，但基本上都是在美国战舰的带领下进行的，“主仆地位”十分明显。

而对于美国来说，尽管近年来与中国展开了全领域竞争与博弈，但同时也时刻注意设立防护栏，防止擦枪走火，给中美关系带来颠覆性的后果。基于这种考虑，虽然美国多次派遣军机和军舰在我国周边海域活动，但仍然保持着较大的克制，更多的只是一种威慑手段，仅用于展示其强大的军事实力和显示其“自由航行”政策，并没有采取过激的挑衅行为。

Second, lacking strategic autonomy in defense and security, especially following the lead of the US in strategies and diplomacy, Canada heavily relies on cooperation with the former over many security issues, meaning it actually can only play a supporting role in most cases. For example, Canadian warships sailed across the Taiwan Strait more than once, but they were basically pulled by the US warships as an obedient lackey. 

However, although obsessed with all-domain competition and gaming with China in recent years, the US also always sets up guardrails to prevent disruptive consequences to bilateral relations produced by sparking accidental conflicts. In view of this, the US still keeps much restraint but hasn't taken excessive provocative actions, though it has repeatedly sent military aircraft and warships to conduct activities in the waters surrounding China, which are primarily more of deterrent measures simply to demonstrate its strong military strength and so-called freedom of navigation. This has in turn determined Canada's actions to be posturing and lacking in practicality.

最后，中国对待美加挑衅行为所采取的坚定态度和坚决回击也是制约美加军舰不敢造次的重要原因。例如，2023年6月，美国“钟云”号驱逐舰和加拿大“蒙特利尔”号护卫舰通过台海时，就遭到了中国海军的猛烈反击，被迫转向。据媒体报道，此次加拿大“渥太华”号护卫舰与中国海军舰艇也发生了至少三次“遭遇”，中国军舰不仅“全副武装”并向加舰喊话，并派出了无人机实施全程监视。这些都对加拿大的不轨图谋形成极大震慑。

Last, China's firm attitude and resolute response to the provocative actions of the US and Canada are also significant factors in restricting their rash behaviors. For example, in June 2023, the USS Chung-Hoon destroyer and the Canadian HMCS Montréal patrol frigate attempting to transit the Taiwan Strait were forced to be diverted under violent counterattack by the Chinese navy. According to media reports, the recent Canadian HMCS Ottawa patrol frigate had encountered the Chinese naval vessel at least three times. The Chinese warship clad in armor sent a vocal alert to the Canadian ship, and also dispatched drones to implement surveillance all the way. All these actions create a profound deterrent effect to Canada's unscrupulous intentions.

总体上来说，虽然此次加美军舰联合过航台海试图加剧台海紧张局势，破坏地区和平稳定发展，但是由于受到自身实力及国际制约因素影响，这种行为更多仅具有象征性质，只是“刷存在感”，不足以产生破坏性后果，象征性质大于实际价值。

In general, although cherishing the evil intention to aggravate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and undermine regional peace, stability and development, the Canadian warship's joint transit with the US destroyer is merely symbolic but devoid of practical value burdened by its own strength and international constraints, which will only bring some meaning to their presence but not enough to produce destructive consequences.

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.