By Dong Yifan

董一凡

On October 7, the US and NATO announced to freeze their participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), further shaking the continent's conventional arms control system.

美国与北约方面于7日宣布正式暂停参与《欧洲常规武装力量条约》，这标志着欧洲大陆常规军备控制体系的进一步动摇。

The CFE was signed between NATO and Warsaw Treaty Organization to reduce both sides' conventional force in Europe in 1990, which is right before the end of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union held a hope to ease the military confrontation atmosphere within Europe. Afterward, as the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union fell apart, which greatly changed the geopolitical landscape in Europe, the US-led west continuously extended their strategic interests to encroach on Russia's legitimate security concerns. Through pushing NATO's eastward expansion, the US-led west has been strengthening strategic squeeze and deterrence against Russia, continuously building up their advantages over Russia in terms of conventional force.

《欧洲常规武装力量条约》是在冷战末期由北约和华约两大军事集团共同制定的一项旨在削减双方在欧洲地区常规武装力量的条约。 条约签署于冷战结束前夕的1990年，彼时苏联对于同美国缓解笼罩在欧洲上空的军事对抗阴云抱有积极愿望。苏东剧变后，欧洲经历华约解散、苏联解体的剧烈地缘政治变化，美西方面对这一局势不断将自身战略利益凌驾于俄罗斯的正当安全关切之上，通过北约东扩持续提升对俄罗斯的战略挤压和威慑，在事实上不断积累西方对俄常规力量的优势。

In 1999, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) adopted the Agreement on Adaptation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe to adapt the existing treaty to the changes in the European landscape after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but only Russia and three former Soviet Union republics, the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, signed the treaty, which revealed that the West was not genuinely sincere about building an equal and credible security system with Russia.

1999年，欧洲安全与合作组织通过《欧洲常规武装力量条约修改协议》，以使既有条约根据苏东剧变后欧洲版图变化进行调整，但仅有俄罗斯以及白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰这三个苏联加盟共和国签署条约，表明西方并未有真正诚意与俄构建平等、可信的安全体系。

In the wake of the new round of eastward expansion of NATO in the early 2000s, the effectiveness and reliability of the treaty were further undermined by some Western approaches including NATO's deployment of anti-missile systems in Poland and radar facilities in Czech, and the US establishment of new military bases in Bulgaria and Romania. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov straightly proclaimed that the US and its allies should bear full responsibility for the suspension of the treaty.

随着21世纪初北约的新一轮东扩，以及北约在波兰部署反导系统、在捷克部署雷达设施、美国在保加利亚和罗马尼亚新设军事基地等做法，进一步破坏了条约的有效性和可靠性。俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫一针见血地表示，美国及其盟友应该为条约停止执行承担全部责任。

In fact, apart from actions at the conventional weapons level, the US and NATO also consistently violate the rules of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and arrogantly and hostilely respond to Russia's position of seeking its own legitimate security concerns, resulting in the US-Russia arms control issue constantly progressing towards an increasingly dangerous direction.

事实上，不仅是常规武器层面，美国及北约也在《中导条约》《新削减战略武器条约》上不断破坏规则，以傲慢和敌意来回应俄罗斯谋求自身合理安全关切的立场，致使美俄军控问题不断朝着愈发危险的方向发展。

Compared with the destabilization of the nuclear arms control system, the disintegration of the European conventional military force control framework could somewhat present a higher level of danger to regional security. The breakdown of the conventional arms control framework means that there will be no ceiling for arms race on the continent, and the military confrontation between the US-led West and Russia, as well as Europe's security dilemma, will face a spiral upgrading. In the meantime, in view that the West regards the aid to Ukraine and anti-Russia, as well as the "desire to see Russia fail", as the so-called political correctness, NATO and some European countries will be trapped in the false cognition that "military deployment is growing in proportion to its sense of security", and also push their distorted security perceptions further away from the normal path of problem-solving.

欧洲控制常规军事力量框架的解体，对欧洲安全的危害性一定程度上可能比核军备控制体系动摇更为严重。常规军控框架的破碎意味着西方相关军备竞赛行为将失去底限，助推其与俄罗斯之间军事对抗和“安全困境”的螺旋式升级。与此同时，在西方将援乌抗俄、“实现俄罗斯失败”等视为所谓“政治正确”的情况下，不论是北约还是一些欧洲国家都将陷于“军力部署与安全感成正比”的虚假认知中，也使其不断扭曲的安全观念愈发偏离解决问题的正常轨道。

However, Europe is undoubtedly most adversely impacted by the fracturing of the security order. At present, led by some transatlantic politicians, the EU has assertively achieved the so-called unity around security and defense policies, approaching the goal of strengthening self-defense and weakening Russia by arming Ukraine. Nevertheless, European countries also understand that the collapse of the security architecture including the collapse of the conventional forces control framework denotes that they will be unable to escape the spiral of arms race escalation and binding with the NATO military alliance and the fact that they have to pay for it at the cost of the domestic public sense of security and economic development prospects.

而在安全秩序不断破碎的进程中，欧洲无疑是最受伤的一方之一。当前，欧盟虽然在一些跨大西洋派政客的主导下，沿着强化自身防务、武装乌克兰削弱俄罗斯的方向，实现了所谓的安全防务政策“团结”。然而，欧洲也深知常规力量军控等安全架构的崩塌，意味着自身将在军备竞赛升级和北约军事同盟绑架的螺旋中无力脱身，并在这一过程中付出巨大成本，牺牲民众安全感和经济发展的前景。

The reason why Europe has risen from the ashes and unleashed unrestricted potential for prosperity based on a single market since the end of WWII is that a 70-year-long postwar peaceful environment allows it to concentrate the resources on economic construction and public welfare. If the European security order collapses, it means that the foundation of the continuous progress of European integration – peace and development – will not be restored easily. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, "It will be possible to talk about a new treaty on conventional arms control only after the current stormy period of European history is over and the West abandons its hostile anti-Russian policy."

自二战结束以来，欧洲能够在废墟中浴火重生，并且通过单一市场建设不断释放繁荣与福利的愿景，根本基础在于战后70多年的和平环境，使其能够将资源集中于经济建设和民众福利等方面。欧洲安全秩序一旦崩塌，将意味着欧洲一体化不断前进的底层逻辑——和平与发展难以回归。正如俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫所言，只有在西方放弃反俄敌对政策后，俄罗斯与西方之间才有可能讨论新版常规武器控制的规则。

It should be noted that some visionary people in Europe have been aware that a peaceful and stable environment must be built on a security architecture of mutual trust. Only by retaining mutual respect for core interests and security concerns of each other can European security be guaranteed. The hostility and confrontation toward Russia from the West will only deviate from the right solution.

需要看到，欧洲一些有识之士深知和平稳定的环境必须建立于互信的安全架构之上。只有走上相互尊重核心利益和安全关切的轨道，欧洲安全才能得到保障。西方对俄罗斯的敌意和对抗，只会使正确解决问题的前景愈发遥远。

(The author is a scholar of the Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

（作者是中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲研究所学者）

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.