美国B-21“突袭者”战略轰炸机首次试飞。

First test flight of the US B-21 Raider.

11月7日，俄罗斯宣布完成退出《欧洲常规武装力量条约》的全部程序。同日，北约也宣布正式暂停履约。

Russia announced that it had completed all procedures for withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) on November 7, and NATO also declared an official halt in fulfilling relevant contractual commitments on the same day.

近些年，美俄两个核大国战略互信不断降低，这两个拥有全世界90%以上核武器的国家不断“退约”，使双方在核军控领域的相互监督和彼此透明机制面临被完全破坏的风险，进而严重冲击国际核军控体系。同时，在核军备控制机制“旧已破、新未立”的情况下，美俄还在不断加快升级核军力。不仅如此，美国还携手盟友积极拓展或升级“延伸威慑”，美过与英澳开展核潜艇合作，默许日本囤积大量核武器材料，逐步放松对韩国在导弹研制方面的限制。

In recent years, due to declining strategic mutual trust, the US and Russia, two nuclear powers possessing more than 90% of the global nuclear weapons, frequently withdrew from the Treaty, posing grave threats to the sustainability of their mutual supervision and transparency mechanism in the nuclear arms control and further severely impacting the international nuclear arms control system. Meanwhile, with the old nuclear arms control mechanism already shattered and the new one not yet in place, the two sides are still accelerating the upgrading of nuclear forces. Not only that, the US works with its allies to actively expand or upgrade extended deterrence. For example, it carried out nuclear submarine cooperation with the UK and Australia, acquiesced in Japan's stockpile of massive nuclear weapon materials and gradually relieved the restrictions on ROK's missile development.

一直以来，可“毁灭地球文明”的核武器扩散和使用备受世界关注。同时，常规武器控制问题的日益凸显，也给全球安全与发展带来严峻挑战。当前，地区冲突和暴力频发为常规武器的非法贸易提供了温床，其中轻小型常规武器更是交易隐蔽、难以追踪。集束弹药、白磷弹、贫铀弹等特定常规武器的使用，不仅加剧了有关国家和地区冲突程度，还引发了严重的人道主义危机。此外，部分国家对常规武器以及特定常规武器不负责任的出口及管理，也加剧了矛盾冲突。特别令人担忧的是，在美国政府向乌克兰提供的军事援助中，赫然包括集束弹药、贫铀弹等武器。

The proliferation and use of nuclear weapons, capable of extinguishing human civilization, have been consistently under the world's scrutiny. And the increasingly prominent conventional arms control issues also pose serious challenges to global security and development. At present, frequent regional conflicts and violence have provided a hotbed for the illicit conventional weapon trades, of which the discovery and traceability of light and small conventional weapons are particularly challenging. The application of cluster munitions, white phosphorus bombs, depleted uranium bombs and other specific conventional weapons has not only exacerbated the intensity of conflicts in relevant countries and regions, but also triggered serious humanitarian crises. Moreover, some countries' irresponsible export and management of common or special conventional weapons have also aggravated the contradictions and conflicts. What's particularly worrisome is that the military assistance provided to Ukraine by the US government startlingly incorporated weapons like cluster munitions and depleted uranium bombs.

在常规武器控制问题日益凸显的同时，高新技术领域的军控更加任重而道远。外空、网络、人工智能等领域高新技术的发展，对现有的全球战略稳定、国际法、伦理道德规范形成持续冲击，给全球安全领域带来新问题新挑战。虽然国际社会建立了有关对话机制，提出了相关倡议，但距离达成有操作性的国际公约仍有很长的路要走。

In tandem with the increasingly emerging conventional arms control problems, arms control in the advanced technology domain is an even more arduous and lengthy task. The development of technologies in outer space, cyberspace, artificial intelligence (AI) and other fields has caused ongoing repercussions on the existing global strategic stability, international law and ethical and moral norms, and brought new problems and challenges to global security. Although relevant dialogue mechanisms and initiatives have been implemented in the international community, there is still a considerable distance to cover before reaching operational international conventions.

在外空领域，尽管早在1966年联合国就通过了旨在确保和平利用外空的《外空条约》，但由于和平目的缺乏明确界限、核查困难等因素，该条约未能对外空军事化产生实质性的约束作用。近年来，外空在战略预警、核武器指挥控制和通信等方面的作用愈发凸显，个别国家为了维护自身在外空的主导地位，反对外空非武器化倡议，使得国际社会难以达成普遍遵守的外空军控规则。

For outer space, the UN had adopted the Outer Space Treaty to ensure the peaceful use of this domain early in 1966, but failed to employ it to substantially restraint the militarization of outer space due to absence of clear boundaries and difficulties in verification on peaceful purposes. In recent years, the role of outer space in strategic early warning, command and control of nuclear weapons, communications, and other aspects has become increasingly highlighted. Certain countries oppose the initiative of non-weaponization of outer space to maintain their dominant position in outer space, thus impeding the international society from achieving universally enforceable outer space arms control rules.

在网络空间，由国家行为体和非国家行为体所实施的网络攻击、网络监听等行为频频发生。“震网”病毒攻击事件、“棱镜门”事件等，折射出网络极强的军事应用价值，使网络军备竞赛和网络空间冲突升级的风险进一步提升。由于各国在网络空间资源分配方面严重不均衡，以及在国际网络空间秩序观、国内网络安全治理模式上存在较大分歧，网络空间国际行为准则和双多边网络军控安排的进展仍然非常缓慢。

In cyberspace, cyber attacks and surveillance initiated by both state and non-state actors occur frequently. Incidents such as the "Stuxnet" virus attack and the "PRISM" reflect the strong military applicability of cyber, further escalating the cyberspace arms race and conflict risks. Due to the serious imbalance in the cyberspace resource allocation, as well as the significant differences in the concepts of cyberspace order and domestic cyber security governance models among countries, the paces of facilitating the international code of conduct in cyberspace and bilateral and multilateral cyber arms control arrangements are still remarkably sluggish.

人工智能的快速发展同样冲击着现有国际军控体系。一方面，人工智能指挥控制系统将大幅缩短人类在相关决策上的时间。值得注意的是，无论是人工智能系统自身可能存在的错误漏洞，还是决策流程加快对相关人员造成的心理压力，都会加剧危机误判或危机升级的风险；另一方面，人工智能赋能武器在作战中可能会摆脱人类的管控，做出违反武装冲突法和国际人道主义法的行为。然而，国际社会在人工智能国际军控究竟应当控什么、怎么控等问题上，目前仍存在较大分歧。

In addition, the rapid development of AI impacts the existing international arms control system. On the one hand, AI command and control systems will dramatically reduce the time for human decision-making in relevant matters. It is worth noting that whether it is the potential errors and vulnerabilities within AI systems, or the heightened psychological pressure on individuals due to accelerated decision-making processes, both will amplify the risks of misjudgment or escalation of relevant crises. On the other hand, AI-empowered weapons could possibly operate outside human control and against the armed conflict and international humanitarian laws. However, there are considerable divergences among the international society regarding what aspects should be governed and the appropriate methods of regulation in the international arms control of AI.

和平与稳定是全世界人民的共同追求。各国应摒弃阵营对抗、零和博弈思维，履行各项国际义务和承诺，以实际行动为维护国际军控体系、促进世界和平作出贡献。

Peace and stability are the common pursuit of worldwide citizens. All countries should abandon the mindset of confrontation and zero-sum game, fulfill the relevant international obligations and commitments, and take concrete actions to maintain the international arms control system and contribute to world peace.

（作者单位：中国国际问题研究院）

(The author is from China Institute of International Relations)

俄罗斯“海燕”核动力巡航导弹。

Russian Burevestnik ("Storm Petrel") nuclear-powered cruise missile