By Li Kaisheng
李开盛
Many extraterritorial countries have flocked to the South China Sea in recent times. In November, the waters saw several bilateral and multilateral military operations, including the KAMANDAG 7 joint exercise among the US, the Philippines, Japan, and the ROK, followed by US-Philippines and Australia-Philippines joint patrols. On December 2, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu signed a letter of intent to promote bilateral defense cooperation with the host during his visit to the Philippines. Prior to this, Japan and the Philippines also negotiated several times on the conclusion of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) to allow mutual deployment of troops.
这段时期，多个域外国家都跑到南海来凑热闹。11月，多场双边和多边军事行动连续在这一海域举行：先是美菲日韩举行“海上战士合作”联合军演，随后是美菲、澳菲相继开展联合巡逻。12月2日，法国国防部长塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼在访问菲律宾时与东道主签署推动双边国防合作的意向书。在此之前，日本与菲律宾之间也就签署《互惠准入协定》（RAA）进行了多次沟通，以允许双方相互部署军队。
Whether joint patrols or discussions on mutual deployment of troops, these actions have gone beyond normal defense cooperation, which took place amidst the unprecedented complex geopolitical changes in the South China Sea for these years.
不管是联合巡逻，还是讨论部队相互部署，这些行为都已经超越了正常的防务合作范畴。上述动作发生的背景，是当前南海局势正在经历近些年来空前复杂的地缘政治变动。
First, the Philippines has significantly increased its involvement in this region, constantly hyping up the South China Sea issue on the pretext of replenishment to the warship illegally grounded on Ren'ai Jiao. Second, negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea have entered the third reading stage, involving more intense geopolitical gaming over the concerns and interests of all parties. Last, the US is dedicated to managing bilateral relations with China, while, on the other hand, stepping up its use of the South China Sea and other issues to contain China.
首先，菲律宾在南海的动作变得十分活跃，不断地利用所谓对仁爱礁坐滩军舰的补给炒作南海议题。其次，“南海行为准则”谈判进入三读阶段，围绕各方关切与利益的地缘政治博弈变得更加激烈。然后，就是美国一方面致力于对华的双边关系管控，另一方面加紧利用南海等议题遏华制华。
These intertwined extraterritorial nations hail from diverse continents but share a common trait -- being military allies of the US. To maintain hegemony and suppress opponents by harnessing the alliance partner system is the internal logic of the US pragmatic diplomacy, especially for the Biden administration.
介入南海局势的域外国家来自不同的大洲，他们有一个共同特征，都是美国的军事盟友。利用盟伴体系维系霸权、打压对手是美国实用主义外交的内在逻辑，拜登政府尤其如此。
The missing of realism and balance in the Philippine policies is certainly another significant factor contributing to the current situation. It should be noted that the Philippines, being a country positioned at the epicenter of geopolitical conflicts, has inherent limitations in terms of national strength. Nevertheless, it is all the more crucial for the nation to exercise rationality and prudence in foreign policies.
当然，菲律宾的政策也正在逐步失去现实感、和平衡感，这也是造成当前局面的一个重要的原因。应该看到，作为地处地区地缘政治矛盾前沿地带的国家，菲律宾自身实力有限。但越是这样，菲律宾越是更应该要推行理性、谨慎的外交政策。
Generally, ASEAN has always upheld a strategy of balancing between major countries. In the face of the US pressure to step up containment on China, most ASEAN countries maintain a stance of not taking sides, becoming a positive force for safeguarding regional stability. After coming into power, the Marcos government declared the approach of "Friend to all, enemy to none," but had been drifting further from this inclination lately. It should be recognized by the Philippines that coaxing extraterritorial powers to strut in borrowed plumes may be a bit of wit but will probably bring serious consequences for the regional security situation.
整体上，东盟历来坚持大国平衡政策，面对当前美国加紧对华遏制的压力，多数东盟国家坚持不选边站队，成为维护地区稳定的积极动力。小马科斯执政之初，还宣布“与所有人为友、不与任何人为敌”，但近来其政府的倾向越来越与这一宣示背道而驰。拉拢域外大国狐假虎威可能是菲律宾的一点小聪明，但它应该意识到这很可能将为地区安全形势带来严重的后果。
First, the sovereignty disputes risk evolving into geopolitical conflicts. Sovereignty contradictions are not uncommon among countries, which should be resolved through peaceful negotiations and consultations. However, if nations within and outside the region succumb to the US will, the South China Sea disputes will no longer be centered around sovereign entitlement but geopolitical gaming. Amidst the fierce whirlpool of geopolitical disputes, regional countries' expectation to benefit from the backing of major powers will prove futile but more likely to result in becoming a tool or even victims of the great power gaming.
首先，面临把主权争端演变成地缘政治争端的风险。国家间有主权争端本属正常，应当坚持和平谈判协商解决争端。但如果地区国家以及某些域外国家屈从于美国操弄南海争端的意志，其争端的核心就不再是主权归属，而是地缘政治。在地缘政治争端的强大漩涡中，地区国家想反过来利用大国支持只能是徒劳，而更可能成为大国博弈的工具甚至牺牲品。
Second, regional stability will become more difficult to achieve with meddling by extraterritorial forces. These countries outside the region are unlikely to have a genuine concern for the interests of nations within the region, who actually have stake in regional stability and peace. The introduction of various extraterritorial forces will also bring their own interests and concerns into the region, which will lead to more complicated situation and even sacrifice of common regional interests to the will of extraterritorial countries. At present, the negotiations on the COC in the South China Sea have reached the point of facing a hard nut to crack, when the efforts to secure regional stability may ultimately come to naught if some regional countries fail to talk wholeheartedly due to external interference.
其次，地区稳定因为地区外力量的干扰更加难以实现。域外国家不可能真正关心地区国家的利益，只有地区国家自身才与地区的稳定与和平紧密关联。各种域外势力的介入，也会把自己的利益关切带入到这一地区中来，其结果是利益关系更加复杂，甚至是使得地区共同利益服从于域外国家的意志。当前，“南海行为准则”谈判进入了“啃硬骨头”的阶段，如果有域内国家产生外心，它就难以坐下来安心谈判，地区稳定的努力最终可能功亏一篑。
Finally, the integrity and centrality of ASEAN will be undermined and crippled. Amid the current intricate geopolitical situations, maintaining the ASEAN centrality is the key to achieving regional peace and stability, which demands ensuring the foreign and security policy consistency of the alliance. However, the current various interactions of the Philippines with extraterritorial countries make the diplomatic approaches of ASEAN disintegrated and splintered and might eventually deprive the alliance of significance in the eyes of the relevant countries.
最后，东盟的整体性与中心性将受到破坏和削弱。在当前复杂地缘政治形势下，坚持东盟的中心地位是实现地区和平与稳定的关键。但要实现东盟的中心地位，就必须确保东盟在外交与安全政策上的一致性。现在菲律宾与域外国家搞各种动作，将把东盟的外交政策搞得四分五裂，东盟的作用最终恐怕也无法再得到相关国家的重视。
Therefore, both external countries and the Philippines should swiftly put an end to such behaviors that undermine regional security. The security and stability of the South China Sea are not on the radar of extraterritorial nations but are inextricably linked to China's interests, so China will not tolerate such kinds of interference going unchecked. As for the Philippines, if acting from the perspective of its true national interests, it will find that what the troops or warships of powers outside the region bring is merely a superficial sense of relief while causing actual trouble.
所以，不管是域外的国家，还是菲律宾自己，都应迅速停止这种危害地区安全局势的行为。域外国家不担心南海是否安全与稳定，但地区的安全稳定与中国利益密切相关，中国自然不会对这种介入放任不管。至于菲律宾，如果它从真正的国家利益角度出发，就会发现域外大国军队或军舰给它带来的，只会是表面上的安慰和事实上的麻烦。
(The author is a researcher and deputy dean of Shanghai Institutions for International Studies)
（作者是上海国际问题研究院副院长、研究员）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
