The USS Connecticut nuclear submarine (File photo)
美国“康涅狄格”号核潜艇。资料图片
By Luo Xi and Wang Xuanyi
罗 曦 王宣懿
In recent years, certain countries have attached greater importance to the role of nuclear weapons. To better leverage the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and enhance nuclear combat readiness, they have ramped up efforts in nuclear arsenal upgrading, nuclear exercises, and new-type nuclear vehicle development, and even withdrawn from nuclear arms control treaties. All these actions have increased the risks of nuclear war and conflict and severely impacted global strategic stability.
近年来，有关国家愈加重视核武器的地位作用,为更好地发挥核威慑效能、提升核战备水平，相关国家纷纷升级核武库、举行核演习、研发新型核载具，甚至退出核军控条约。这些都推高了核战争与核冲突风险，使全球战略稳定态势受到严重冲击。
Developing equipment to accelerate modernization of nuclear forces
发展装备，核力量现代化加速推进
To maintain its hegemony, the US has been intensely promoting nuclear force modernization programs and constantly improving the actual combat performance of nuclear weapons.
为维护自身霸权地位，美国一直在紧锣密鼓推进核力量现代化计划，不断提高核武器的实战化性能。
On October 12, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States issued a report proposing to further expand the national nuclear arsenals, including producing more stealth strategic bombers and strategic nuclear submarines and strengthening the nuclear deterrence by elevating the survivability and invisibility of nuclear forces.
10月12日，美国国会战略态势委员会发表报告，要求美国进一步扩大核武库，包括生产更多的隐形战略轰炸机和战略核潜艇，通过提升核力量生存性隐蔽性来提升核威慑力。
Subsequently, on October 28, the US Department of Defense announced the modernization and upgrade plan for the B61 nuclear warheads in late October. The modified warheads could adapt to airdrop operations from various fighters and bombers along with on-demand adjustment of explosive yields and that could be decreased to 300 tons of TNT at minimum.
随后，美国防部于10月28日公布了B61型核弹头的现代化升级计划。升级后的弹头可经由多种战斗机和轰炸机空投，且可根据需要调整爆炸当量，最低当量可调至300吨TNT。
On October 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club that Russia had successfully test-fired a Burevestnik (Storm Petrel) nuclear-powered cruise missile. It was reported that this missile built-in with a nuclear power unit is empowered with unlimited-range and ultra-low altitude flight capabilities when carrying nuclear warheads.
10月5日，俄罗斯总统普京在“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部年会上宣布，俄罗斯已经成功试射了一枚“海燕”核动力巡航导弹。按照媒体的报道，“海燕”导弹采用了核动力装置，可以携带核弹头，具有无限航程和超低空飞行能力。
According to the Russian media, the country had produced the first batch of Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedoes with above a hundred times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Apart from the huge explosive yield, the torpedoes also feature ultra-long range, super speed, and high stealth capability.
另据俄罗斯媒体报道，俄罗斯已经生产出第一批“波塞冬”核鱼雷，其威力是当年投在广岛原子弹的100多倍，除了爆炸当量大之外，“波塞冬”核鱼雷还具有超远航程、超高航速以及高隐蔽性等特点。
As the EU's only nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, France recently launched the newly designed three-stage sea-land strategic ballistic missile M51.3, which enhances the penetrating power while improving the shooting range and strike precision. This missile is expected to be put in service in 2025. According to the French military, the operation was the first test-fire of this type of missile, helping maintain the country's credibility in sea-based nuclear deterrent for decades to come.
作为欧盟唯一的核大国兼安理会常任理事国，法国不久前发射的M51.3导弹采取了全新设计的第三级火箭，在强化突防能力的同时，提高了射程和命中精度，预计2025年开始服役。按照法国军方的说法，这是该型导弹的首次试射，有助于在未来几十年保持法国海基核威慑的可信度。
Demonstrating resolution in nuclear deterrence through exercise deployment
展现意志，演习部署彰显威慑决心
Despite being fully aware of the grave consequences of a nuclear war, all relevant parties still relentlessly assert their superior nuclear power and the resolution to employ it during the gaming process.
虽然各方都明确知道核战争的严重后果，但在博弈过程中，仍极力展示自己强大的核力量以及使用核力量的决心。
The US is actively strengthening the nuclear sharing mechanism in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, which enables the country to deploy tactical nuclear weapons and assume supervision and maintenance functions in some NATO countries. In wartime or crisis conditions, with the authorization by the US, the tactical bombers of NATO countries can carry US-owned nuclear cruise missiles to participate in combat.
美国积极在欧洲和亚太地区加强“核共享”机制。这一机制允许美在部分北约国家部署战术核武器并担负监管维护职能。战时或危机状态下，经美授权后，北约国家的战术轰炸机可搭载美属核巡航导弹参与作战。
On October 16, NATO kicked off the annual "Steadfast Noon" nuclear exercise involving 60 aircraft from its member states. It was revealed by the media that several fighter jets were carrying the US tactical nuclear missiles.
10月16日，北约开启“坚定正午”年度核演习，北约成员国出动了60架飞机。据媒体报道，其中几架战机挂有美国的战术核导弹。
In the Asia-Pacific, since the beginning of 2023, the USS Michigan, USS Annapolis, and USS Kentucky nuclear submarines from the US Navy had docked at the ports of the ROK, and the B-52H strategic bombers from the US Air Force had taken off and landed in an airport of the ROK, to highlight their determination to extend deterrence in a "visual" way.
在亚太地区，今年以来，美海军“密歇根”号、“安纳波利斯”号、“肯塔基”号核潜艇停靠韩国港口，美空军B-52H战略轰炸机在韩国起降，以“可视化”的方式凸显其延伸威慑的决心。
In the face of these actions of the US, the Russian armed forces held a strategic deterrence exercise on October 25 encompassing land, sea, and air strategic nuclear forces. Test-fires of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), sea-based ballistic missiles, and air-based cruise missiles were carried out in the exercise. Russia also proclaimed in April 2023 that its nuclear-capable Iskander-M tactical missile system had been transferred to the Belarusian armed forces, and a series of training had been initiated for the relevant missile operators.
面对美方的种种动作，10月25日，俄武装力量举行战略威慑演习，涵盖了陆海空战略核力量，进行了陆基洲际弹道导弹、海基弹道导弹和空基巡航导弹试射。今年4月，俄表示可携带核弹头的“伊斯坎德尔-M”战术导弹系统已移交给白俄罗斯武装部队，并已开始对白俄罗斯操作人员进行一系列导弹使用的培训。
Gravely devastating nuclear arms control system by constant treaty withdrawals
退约不断，核军控体系遭严重冲击
In recent years, the US unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Treaty on Open Skies and carried out nuclear submarine cooperation with the UK and Australia under the trilateral security partnership, which plunged the international nuclear arms control system into a slump. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has worsened the deficiency of strategic mutual trust between the US and Russia. Following the US government statement to suspend the arms control dialogues with Russia, the latter also announced on February 21 to hold off on the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which voided the only bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the two countries.
近年来，美国单方面退出《中导条约》《开放天空条约》，并与英国、澳大利亚建立三边安全伙伴关系，开展核潜艇合作，使国际核军控体系陷入低谷。俄乌冲突爆发导致美俄战略互信进一步缺失。在美政府表示将中断美俄军控对话后，2月21日，俄宣布暂停履行《新削减战略武器条约》，导致美俄之间仅存的双边核军控条约名存实亡。
On November 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin revoked his ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. In their view, the country shouldn't be bound by the relevant obligations on the grounds that the US, which possesses powerful computer-simulative nuclear test capability, has not yet ratified the treaty. In combination with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's inspection of the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site in August, and the recent high-explosive test conducted by the US side at the Nevada nuclear test site, the nuclear gaming between the two countries may expand from nuclear competition, exercises and protection to the nuclear test field, thus further deteriorating the international nuclear arms control situation.
11月2日，俄总统普京撤销了对《全面禁止核试验条约》的批准。在俄看来，具有强大计算机模拟核试验能力的美国都未批约，俄也不应该再履行相关义务。结合8月份俄国防部长绍伊古视察新地岛核试验场，以及美近期在内华达州核试验场进行高爆试验来看，美俄在核领域的博弈可能会从核竞赛、核演习、核保护蔓延至核试验领域，进一步恶化国际核军控形势。
It is not difficult to see that some nuclear countries' acceleration of strengthening nuclear combat readiness and frequent moves in this field have provoked a gradual escalation in the nuclear standoff. In the coming period of time, a series of behaviors such as frequent flaunting of the nuclear might, covert application of nuclear proliferation, negative attitude toward nuclear arms control, and even secret launching of nuclear tests, may constitute the normalized risks of the international nuclear situation.
不难看出，部分有核国家加速提升核战力水平，在核领域动作频频，导致核博弈逐渐加码。未来一段时间，频繁亮出“核拳头”、灰色运用“核扩散”、消极对待核军控，乃至秘密启动核试验等一系列行为，可能形成国际核态势的常态化风险。
(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA)
（作者单位：军事科学院战争研究院）
