Prospect of improvement in France-Australia relations unpredictable

法澳关系改善前景难测

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2023-12-15 00:30:11

By Fang Xiaozhi

方晓志

France and Australia recently signed an agreement to grant each other's troops access to their military bases and use military facilities. This marks a turning point in the deadlock in diplomatic relations between the two countries since the submarine procurement crisis in 2021.

近日,法国与澳大利亚签署协议,允许对方军队进入本国军事基地并使用军事设施。这标志着两国自2021年潜艇采购风波后的外交关系僵局出现转机。

The defense cooperation between France and Australia has a long history and the two have established a relatively smooth channel of collaboration. In 2002, France responded to and participated in Australia-led peacekeeping operations in East Timor and offered its overseas territory of Nouméa as a logistical support base for the Australian military.

法国与澳大利亚的防务合作由来已久,建立了较为通畅的合作渠道。2002年,法国响应并参加澳大利亚主导的东帝汶维和行动,并将其海外领土努美阿曾借给澳大利亚军队用作后勤保障基地。

In 2009, the two countries signed a defense and military cooperation agreement and expanded the scope of cooperation. In 2013, Australia provided logistical support for France's military operations in Mali. In 2017, the two issued a statement on expanding their strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific and actively broadened multilateral cooperation mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific.

2009年,两国签订国防和军队合作协定,扩大合作规模。2013年,澳大利亚为法国在马里开展的军事行动提供后勤保障。2017年,两国发表关于在印太地区扩大战略伙伴关系声明,积极拓展在印太地区的多边合作机制。

In 2021, the relationship between France and Australia took a sudden turn. The reason was that Australia formed the AUKUS alliance with the US and the UK without informing France and tore up a conventional submarine procurement contract worth tens of billions of dollars signed with France. Instead, Australia sought to build a nuclear submarine force with the support of the US and the UK. This move sparked strong dissatisfaction from France, leading to France removing Australia from its list of strategic partners and causing a significant downturn in the bilateral relationship.

2021年,法澳两国关系突现转折,其缘由是澳大利亚在未告知法国的情况下,与美国、英国组建“奥库斯”联盟,并撕毁与法国签订的价值数百亿美元常规潜艇采购合同,转而谋求在美英支持下打造核潜艇部队。此举引发法国强烈不满,法国将澳大利亚从其战略伙伴名单上除名,两国关系降至低谷。

From the perspective of France, the recent efforts to improve relations with Australia are largely influenced by the changing security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region has been on the rise, and it has become a key area of global geopolitical competition in recent years. France, as one of the few Western countries with overseas territories in both the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific, considers itself a stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific region, and has been increasing its strategic focus and presence in the region.

从法国方面来看,此次寻求与澳大利亚改善关系,很大程度上是受到当前印太地区安全局势变化影响。近年来,印太地区战略地位不断上升,成为全球地缘政治竞争的关键区域。法国作为为数不多在印度洋和南太平洋地区都拥有海外领地的西方国家之一,一直将自己视为印太地区的利益攸关者,不断加大向该地区战略转移力度。

Currently, France maintains an active military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. France has deployed cross-service combined-arms forces in strategically significant locations such as New Caledonia, Reunion, and Mayotte. These forces are equipped with various weapons, including frigates, patrol ships, fighter jets, patrol aircraft, and transport aircraft to safeguard France's security interests in the region. However, France acknowledges the limited reach of these military forces, and it hinders its ability to play a more significant role in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, improving and strengthening cooperation with Australia is seen as a way to enhance its presence in the region and increase its global impact.

目前,法国在印太地区保持着积极的军事存在,包括在具有战略意义的新喀里多尼亚、留尼汪、马约特群岛等地部署跨军种合成武装力量,装备护卫舰、巡逻舰、战斗机、巡逻机和运输机等武器,以确保法国在该地区的安全利益。法国认为,这些军事力量的投射范围有限,难以支撑其在印太地区发挥更大作用,改善并增强与澳大利亚的合作关系,将有助于其提升在该地区的存在感,从而在全球范围扩大影响力。

From the perspective of Australia, it regards France as an important international partner. Australia seeks to improve its relations with France and hopes to strengthen cooperation with France on South Pacific affairs to enhance its voice in the region. In addition, the EU has become Australia's third largest trading partner, but a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU has not yet been reached after years of negotiations. Australia believes that France has a strong influence within the EU, and strengthening its cooperative relationship with France will be conducive to the economic and trade development between Australia and the EU.

从澳大利亚方面来看,其视法国为重要国际合作伙伴,澳大利亚寻求改善与法国的关系,希望与法国加强在南太平洋地区事务上的合作,以此提升在该地区话语权。此外,欧盟目前已成为澳大利亚第三大贸易伙伴,但澳大利亚与欧盟的自由贸易协定经过多年谈判仍未达成。澳大利亚认为,法国在欧盟内部有较强影响力,强化与法国的合作关系有助于澳大利亚与欧盟的经贸发展。

From the perspective of future development, France and Australia are willing to strengthen cooperation, but this does not mean that the development of bilateral relations will be smooth. Their strategic interests and concerns are not consistent on many international affairs and regional security issues. For example, France focuses on getting rid of the constraints of the US and hopes to independently establish bilateral relations with Australia and expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific. Australia advocates joint actions within the framework of the US-Australia alliance, which may lead to differences between France and Australia in strategic priorities and policy choices in the Indo-Pacific.

从未来发展看,法澳两国有意愿加强合作,并不意味着两国关系发展就一帆风顺。在许多国际事务和地区安全问题上,两国的战略利益和关注点并不一致。例如,法国注重摆脱美国的约束,希望独立自主与澳大利亚建立双边关系,扩大自身在“印太地区”的影响力;澳大利亚则主张在美澳同盟的框架下联合行动,这可能导致法澳两国在“印太地区”战略优先事项和政策选择上存在较大差异。

The two countries also have conflicts on issues such as solutions to international hot-spot issues, the operating model of regional alliance mechanisms, and security leadership in the Indo-Pacific. These will have a negative impact on the future development of bilateral relations.

此外,双方在国际热点问题的解决途径、地区联盟机制的运作模式及印太地区安全主导权等问题上,也存在矛盾,这些都将对未来两国关系发展产生负面影响。

(The author is an associate professor at the National University of Defense Technology.)

(作者为国防科技大学副教授)

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