By Li Zhe

李喆

US Pacific Army spokesman Rob Phillips recently said that the military plans to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in the Indo-Pacific region in 2024. This will mark the country's inaugural deployment of land-based IRBMs in the region since the end of the Cold War, and also its first deployment of such weaponry after withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Such a move will inevitably raise the risk of regional wars and severely undermine global strategic stability.

美太平洋陆军发言人菲利普斯日前表示，美军方计划2024年在印太地区部署陆基中程导弹。这将是自冷战结束以来，美国首次在该地区部署陆基中程导弹，也是其2019年退出《中导条约》后首次部署此类武器，无疑将推高地区战争风险，对全球战略稳定造成强烈冲击。

According to the plan, the US will deploy the launch system code-named "Typhon" as well as land-based Standard SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 2,700 kilometers. Among them, the Standard SM-6 missiles were originally designed as ship-borne air defense and anti-ship missiles with ground-strike capability, which feature a short range but rapid response and flight speeds, capable of striking certain sensitive targets. It is especially important to keep an eye on the US sea and air-based Tomahawk cruise missiles, which were previously installed with conventional warheads under the restrictions by the INF Treaty. Now, the US military may load it with nuclear warheads after re-initiation of this deployment.

按照计划，美国届时将会部署代号为“堤丰”的发射系统，以及陆基版“标准-6”导弹、“战斧”巡航导弹，导弹射程在500公里至2700公里之间。其中，“标准-6”导弹原本是一种舰载防空兼反舰导弹，也能进行对地打击，射程较近，但反应速度和飞行速度较快，能够打击一些敏感目标。尤其需要警惕的是，过去在《中导条约》限制下，美国装备的海空基“战斧”巡航导弹搭载的是常规弹头，这次重启部署后，“战斧”巡航导弹存在搭载核弹头的可能。

It is analyzed that these IRBMs will be deployed to the so-called first island chain and second island chain military bases of the US, which multiple purposes.

据分析，这些中程导弹将被部署至所谓“第一岛链”和“第二岛链”的美军基地。这一动作，有多重目的。

To disrupt the anti-access/area denial capabilities of the opponents. In recent years, the US has been endeavoring to establish a joint all-domain maneuver operational posture characterized by dispersed forces and concentrated firepower in the Western Pacific region, and to build miniaturized and multi-functional strike packages such as the Army's Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF), the Air Force Vanguards and the Marine Littoral Regiments, aiming to counter the anti-access/area denial capabilities of the adversaries. The Typhon system has been tested to be capable of deploying the Army's MDTFs, which will be empowered with diverse striking functions upon deployment in the Indo-Pacific, posing realistic threats to regional countries due to its advantages of shortened distance, improved accuracy, and reduced costs for striking missions.

破解对手“反介入/区域拒止”能力。近年来，美企图在西太平洋地区构建兵力分散、火力集中的联合全域机动作战态势，打造陆军多域特遣部队、空军先遣联队、海军陆战队濒海作战团等规模小型化、功能复合化的“打击包”，旨在破解对手的“反介入/区域拒止”能力。“堤丰”系统经测试，已具备部署陆军多域特遣部队的条件，一旦配备部署印太地区，将丰富该部队打击手段，通过缩短打击距离、提高打击精度、降低打击成本，对地区国家构成现实威胁。

To enrich deterrence options. Since the release of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, the US has stepped up efforts in shaping tailored deterrence capabilities, that is, to expand the available options and range of deterrence by combining large-scale retaliation and flexible response. In this context, the US has been focusing on the development and production of low-yield and dual-capable weapons in the past years, in a bid to generate a persistent sense of real security risks for the adversaries through indistinct nuclear threshold. Land-based IRBMs can effectively fill in the deterrence options for the US Army. However, it must be noted that this type of weapon features due-capable, which will dramatically escalate the risk of nuclear wars.

丰富威慑选项。自发布2018版《核态势评估》报告后，美国开始着力培塑“定制威慑”能力，即以“大规模报复+灵活反应”的方式丰富威慑可用选项、拓宽威慑频谱。在此背景下，美近年来注重研发生产低当量核武器和核常两用武器，试图通过模糊“核门槛”让对手时刻感受到现实安全威胁。陆基中导武器可为美陆军有效填补威慑选项。但必须指出的是，该型武器本身具有核常两用特征，一旦部署将极大推高核战争风险。

To strengthen strategic ties with allies. Despite the fact that countries like Japan, the ROK, and the Philippines are not proactive enough in responding to the US deployment of IRBMs, there is a real possibility that the US will deploy IRBMs on the territories of its Indo-Pacific allies and partners within a short time when situation requires son in the future, considering that Japan and the ROK have actively expressed desire to seek nuclear sharing with the US since 2022, and the Philippines has repeatedly promised to provide military bases for the US. This will undoubtedly disturb the relatively peaceful and tranquil security environment that has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific region for many years.

强化与盟友战略捆绑。虽然目前来看，日本、韩国、菲律宾等国对美部署中导武器的反应并不十分积极，但考虑到2022年以来，日、韩均已积极表态谋求与美“核共享”，菲也先后多次允诺为美提供军事基地，未来一旦形势需要，美短时间内将中导武器部署在其印太盟友伙伴领土上的可能性现实存在。这无疑将搅动多年来相对和平安宁的亚太地区安全环境。

To push aggressively for self-serving arms control negotiations. In recent years, the US has been shaping public opinion to create the perception that China and Russia have gained an advantage in the deployment of intermediate-range missile weapons, but skirts around the fact of its continuous advance of military deployment in the name of providing extended deterrence and ensuring the so-called collective security for its allies and partners. The US deployment of IRBMs in the Indo-Pacific by clamoring the Russian and Chinese missile-based threats aims at replicating the carrot-and-stick policy of combining deterrence and persuasion that was used to force the Soviet Union into the INF Treaty negotiations during the Cold War, in an attempt to trap the opponent in a dilemma.

强推有利于己的军控谈判。美近年来一直以舆论造势方式，构建中俄在中导武器方面“占了便宜”的认知，却避而不谈其打着为盟友伙伴提供“延伸威慑”和保障所谓“集体安全”旗号，持续前推军事力量的事实。美鼓吹“中俄导弹威胁论”论调在印太地区部署中导武器，意在复制冷战时期迫使苏联参与《中导条约》谈判的“慑拉并举、软硬兼施”政策，妄图使对手陷入“两难困境”。

The announcement of the deployment of intermediate-range missile weapons by the US is the epitome of its military pressure and containment in recent years. For the time to come, the US military may continue to undermine global strategic stability and deteriorate the regional security environment by using approaches including further deploying land-based intermediate-range weapons such as the "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles and equipping submarines with Tomahawk anti-ship missiles. These actions warrant utmost caution from the international community.

美国此次宣布部署中导武器，是其近年来在军事层面紧逼遏压的缩影。未来，美军或将通过进一步部署“暗鹰”高超声速导弹等陆基中程武器，以及为潜艇配备反舰版“战斧”导弹等方式持续破坏全球战略稳定、恶化地区安全环境，值得国际社会高度警惕。

(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA)

（作者单位：军事科学院战争研究院）