Kazakhstan holds a military exercise (file photo)哈萨克斯坦举行军事演习(资料图)
By Xie Siqiang and Chen Yue
谢思强 陈岳
Central Asia is located at the junction of the Eurasia and is the hub connecting Europe and Asia. In 2023, the security situation in Central Asia has undergone a new round of development and changes.
中亚地区位于欧亚大陆结合部,是贯通亚欧大陆的枢纽。2023年,中亚地区安全形势出现新一轮发展变化。
Noteworthy new features
新特征值得关注
In 2023, the military security situation in Central Asia has some noteworthy new features.
2023年,中亚地区军事安全态势出现了一些值得关注的新特征。
From an external perspective, Central Asia is a hub connecting Europe and Asia. As the international security situation continues to change, Central Asia's geostrategic position has become increasingly important, and the region has become a new focus in the game between major powers. This year, the US, the EU, India, Türkiye, Japan, and other countries and organizations have stepped up their diplomatic offensive to countries in Central Asia.
从外部看,中亚地区是贯通亚欧大陆的枢纽,随着国际安全形势的不断变化,中亚地缘战略地位愈发重要,该地区成为大国博弈的新焦点。今年以来,美国、欧盟、印度、土耳其、日本等国家和组织,均加大了对中亚地区国家的外交攻势。
From an internal perspective, the five Central Asian countries were all former republics of the Soviet Union with similar national conditions and most of them are going through a period of economic and social transformation. When faced with the intervention of major foreign countries, they implement a diversified and balanced foreign policy and enhance their overall strength through cooperation to get as much security support as possible.
从内部看,中亚五国此前都是苏联加盟共和国,国情相似,多数国家正经历经济社会转型期,在面对域外大国介入地区事务时,实施多元平衡的外交政策,通过合作增强整体实力,尽可能多地获得安全保障。
Stable and improving security situation
安全形势稳定向好
In 2023, the security situation in Central Asia shows stability and improvement compared with last year.
年内,中亚地区安全形势较上一年呈现稳定向好的特点。
For one thing, relations between regional countries are generally improving. In the past few years, conflicts between some Central Asian countries have occurred over issues such as border demarcation and water resources competition, resulting in casualties and property losses. In order to prevent such a situation from happening again, Central Asian countries initiated a "stability first" conflict management model. This year, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan demarcated 90 percent of their borders and effectively prevented the recurrence of border conflicts.
一方面,域内国家间关系总体向好。前几年,中亚部分国家之间因边界划分和水资源争夺等问题发生冲突,造成人员伤亡和财产损失。为避免此类情况再次出现,中亚国家间开始采取“稳定优先”冲突管理模式。今年,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦划定了90%的边界,有效避免边境冲突重起。
However, there are still disputes over border demarcation between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Disputes between countries over the use and development of water resources have not been effectively resolved. The possibility of future conflicts in Central Asia due to issues such as border demarcation and allocation of water resources still exists.
不过,吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦之间、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦之间仍就边界划分问题存在争议。各国在水资源使用和开发上的纠纷也未得到有效解决。未来中亚地区因边界划分、水资源分配等问题导致冲突的可能性仍然存在。
For another, countries in the region have maintained reasonable and moderate military build-up. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Central Asian countries have rejudged the international security situation and focused on improving their military defense capabilities and strengthening regional security cooperation.
另一方面,域内国家维持合理适度的军事建设。受俄乌冲突影响,中亚各国重新对国际安全形势作出判断,重点提升军事防御能力并强化地区安全合作。
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have successively issued new versions of military doctrines, stating that responding to new security threats will be a strategic goal of military security.
哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦相继发布新版军事学说,声明将应对新的安全威胁作为军事安全战略目标。
In terms of military strength building, the Central Asian countries' military strength has remained consistent with their own national strength and military security needs, and they have maintained reasonable military expenditures and appropriate military scale. Some countries in Central Asia have a weak foundation in military industry and therefore increasing imports and expanding domestic production capabilities are their main means of developing equipment. Their focus is on unmanned aerial vehicles, military transport aircraft, and high-precision anti-personnel weapons.
在军事力量建设上,中亚各国军事力量与本国国力和军事安全需求相适应,保持合理军事开支和适度军队规模。中亚地区部分国家军工基础较弱,以增加进口和扩大本国生产能力作为装备建设的主要途径,将无人机、军用运输机和高精度杀伤武器作为重点发展方向。
Under the complex and ever-changing international situation, weapons and equipment procurement in Central Asian countries has developed towards diversification. A couple of those countries import drones, radars, and other weapons and equipment from Türkiye, Iran, Belarus, and other countries, and at the same time, they continue to improve their own research and production capabilities.
在复杂多变的国际形势下,中亚国家武器装备采购向多元化发展。多个国家从土耳其、伊朗、白俄罗斯等国进口无人机、雷达等武器装备,同时不断提升自研自产能力。
Balanced and diversified foreign policy
外交政策平衡多元
Countries outside the region have begun to work with Central Asian countries as the geopolitical importance of those countries continues to rise.
随着中亚地区地缘政治重要性不断上升,域外国家纷纷与该地区国家展开合作。
Russia has long maintained close ties with Central Asian countries in politics, economy, security, culture, and other aspects.
俄罗斯长期与中亚国家在政治、经济、安全、文化等方面保持密切联系。
The US has not formed a coherent and complete Central Asia policy for a long time. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Central Asia has become an important part of the US' global counter-terrorism strategy. In 2020, the US released a new version of the US Strategy for Central Asia, and the status of Central Asia in the US global strategy has been significantly improved. This year, the US has frequently conducted high-level exchanges with Central Asian countries and promised to provide economic assistance to them.
美国曾在较长时间内未形成连贯和完整的中亚政策,“9·11”事件后,中亚地区成为美国全球反恐战略中的重要一环。2020年,美国发布新版《中亚安全战略》,中亚地区在美国全球战略中的地位明显提升。今年,美国与中亚地区国家高层互访频繁,并向中亚国家提供经济承诺。
The EU, Türkiye, Iran, India, Japan, and other countries and organizations have also held many bilateral and multilateral high-level meetings with Central Asian countries and carried out military trade and technical cooperation.
欧盟、土耳其、伊朗、印度、日本等国家和组织也与中亚国家举行多场双边、多边高层会晤,并开展军贸和技术合作。
Since the beginning of this year, the balanced diplomatic policy of Central Asian countries has become more obvious, and countries in the region have actively promoted the convening of the C5+1 summit, which is a representative meeting for dialogue and cooperation between the five Central Asian countries and major powers and international organizations. Relevant statistics show that the five Central Asian countries have successively held C5+1 summits with China, the EU, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the US, and Germany this year. In 2024, the five Central Asian countries will also hold a C5+1 summit with the EU and Japan, and more C5+1 summit mechanisms are still being planned and implemented.
今年以来,中亚地区国家的平衡外交路线更加明显,该地区国家积极推动C5+1峰会召开。C5+1峰会是中亚五国与大国、国际组织开展对话与合作的代表性会议。据不完全统计,今年,中亚五国先后与中国、欧盟、海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会、美国、德国举办C5+1峰会。按计划,2024年,中亚五国还将与欧盟、日本召开C5+1峰会,更多的C5+1峰会机制还在规划和落实中。
By pursuing a diversified and balanced foreign policy, Central Asian countries have deepened their relations with most major powers in international exchanges, and their initiative in shaping regional order has continued to increase.
通过奉行多元平衡的外交政策,中亚各国在国际交往中与多数大国的关系均有所深化,主动塑造地区秩序的能动性不断增强。
(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA.)
(作者单位:军事科学院战争研究院)