By Jin Yi'nan
金一南
Israeli military launches air strikes on the ground buildings in Gaza City on October 7, 2023, local time.
当地时间2023年10月7日，以色列军队空袭加沙城地面建筑。
The new round of Palestinian-Israeli military conflict breaking out on October 7, 2023 is astonishingly unparalleled in scale and intensity. More than 20,000 people have lost their lives and more than 50,000 injured in the Gaza Stripe so far, and the United Nations has warned that Gaza is suffering from an "unprecedented human catastrophe". The extent of devastation seen in this conflict is without precedent for both sides.
2023年10月7日爆发的新一轮巴以军事冲突，规模和强度前所未有，令人震惊。截至目前，加沙地带已有超过两万人死于战火、5万多人受伤，联合国警告称，加沙正遭遇“前所未有”的人道主义灾难。对巴以双方来说，这轮冲突的惨烈程度都是空前的。
Previous Palestinian-Israeli conflicts including historical Middle East wars were mainly targeted at land capturing and occupation, and all ended with Israel's victory and set the stage for the prevailing geopolitical dynamics. However, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict carries stronger political implications. Israel has first found that its military victory in Gaza could not consolidate its political outcome but has created an unfathomable awkward situation in which more gains from the military operation mean greater moral losses.
以前的巴以冲突，包括历次中东战争，主要目的是攻城略地、占领土地等，都是以以色列的胜利而结束，并且奠定了当时的地缘政治格局。然而这一次，巴以冲突政治意味更浓。以色列第一次发现，在加沙地带取得的军事胜利不仅无法巩固其政治成果，而且造成了一种十分尴尬的局面，就是军事行动的成果越大，道义方面的损失越严重，这是以色列从来没有想到的。
Currently, there is an emerging trend internationally where the rich and poor are realigning themselves. The US-led EU countries are standing on the side of Israel while other countries are backing Palestine. This tearing apart is unlike anything we have seen before and is by no means limited to the Gaza Strip but extends throughout the world. Recently, the US and France have taken the rare step of sanctioning those people causing violence in Israel. Even the US, which has been demonstrating the most resolute support for Israel, is hesitant to fully align with Israel this time and condemns some of its actions in Gaza that are not in line with international humanitarian principles. Conflicts even arose among various races, civilizations, and religions in Harvard University, Princeton University, and other universities in the US. While the Palestinian-Israeli conflicts have endured for decades, they have never affected the world like this time.
当前，国际上正在出现一种新的态势，就是富人、穷人重新站队，站在以色列一边的是美国、欧盟国家，站在巴勒斯坦一边的是其他国家，这种撕裂是前所未有的。这种撕裂绝不仅限于加沙地带，而是在整个世界范围内。最近，美国、法国十分罕见地制裁了以色列制造暴力事件的公民，哪怕是支持以色列态度最坚决的美国，也不敢完全站在以色列一边，也要谴责以色列在加沙地区的一些行动不符合国际人道主义原则。在美国的哈佛、普林斯顿等大学校园内，更是因为巴以冲突，发生了不同种族、不同文明、不同宗教之间的冲突。虽然巴以冲突持续了这么多年，但像现在这样影响世界，还是前所未有的。
The escalating battlefield situation seems to be quietly changing the geopolitical environment in the Middle East and even the global security order, profoundly impacting the regional and international security pattern.
持续升级的战场态势似乎也在悄然改变着中东地缘政治环境乃至全球安全秩序，对地区和国际安全格局产生深刻影响。
First, the most immediate influence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the reintegration of the Arab world. The previously divided Arab world has nearly all shifted towards the Palestinian side without exception under the current conflict. Mediated by the US, Saudi Arabia even considered establishing diplomatic relations with Israel some time ago, but now has to abandon the plan and firmly stand with Palestine with the outbreak of this conflict. At the recent Joint Arab Islamic Extraordinary Summit, the Middle East countries adopted a common position on the Palestinian issue with rare unity, which has played a positive role in promoting the settlement of the issue. Naturally, the extent to which the Arab world will integrate depends on the outcome of the current round of conflict in Gaza to a large degree.
第一，巴以冲突现在导致的最直接的影响，就是阿拉伯世界的重新整合。阿拉伯世界原来是四分五裂的，但本轮巴以冲突让几乎所有的阿拉伯世界，无一例外地站在了巴勒斯坦一边。前一段时间，沙特在美国的撮合下，还考虑与以色列建交，但随着巴以冲突的爆发，现在不得不放弃与以色列建交的计划，坚决地与巴勒斯坦站在一起。在近期举行的阿盟-伊斯兰合作组织峰会上，中东各国就巴勒斯坦问题采取了共同立场，显示出“罕见”的团结，这也对推动巴勒斯坦问题的解决产生了积极作用。当然，阿拉伯世界能整合到一个什么样的程度，很大程度上还将要由加沙地带本轮冲突的最终结果来决定。
Second, the sway of the US in the Middle East is deteriorating sharply. As a source of energy to the whole world, the Middle East has consistently been of paramount importance to the strategic interests of the US. However, the US' favoring Israel has again sparked resentful and antagonistic emotions toward itself from the people in the Middle East, intensified the contradictions between regional countries and Israel, and resulted in its previous efforts of easing relations between Israel and the Arab world coming to naught. The impacts of the US in the Arab world are diminishing rapidly as a result of this Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Although ultimately relying on Israel to constrain the entire Middle East, the US has to appropriately admonish Israel and create a suitable distance with it in case of excessive behaviors from the latter to maximize its own interests in the Middle East.
第二，美国在中东地区的影响力正在急剧下降。美国历来很看重中东地区的战略利益，因为这个地方能够给全世界提供能源。但当前美国对以色列的偏袒再次激起了中东民众的愤怒和反美情绪，激化了地区国家与以色列的矛盾，使得美国此前缓和以色列与阿拉伯世界关系的努力付诸东流。美国在阿拉伯世界的影响力，正因这轮巴以冲突急剧下降。虽然美国最终还要依托以色列制约整个中东，但如果以色列行事过分，也不得不适当地对他敲打一下，适当地拉开与以色列的距离，以保持美国在中东利益的最大化。
Third, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict is generating significant impacts on the global political pattern and economic development. The repercussions of this conflict on international energy prices and transportation routes will become gradually visible for the time to come. Amidst the current global era, its influences go well beyond politics and will rapidly permeate the realm of economics, playing a crucial role in determining the magnitude of the global economic recovery in the future.
第三，这一轮巴以冲突正在对世界政治格局、经济发展产生重大影响。后续我们将逐步看到，这轮巴以冲突对国际能源价格的影响、对国际运输通道的影响。现在是一个全球化的时代，它的影响绝不仅仅存在于政治层面，很快就会蔓延到经济领域，未来对全世界的经济复苏将会产生重大的影响。
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
