By Wang Fudong

王付东

Not long ago, the US, Japan and the ROK militaries officially initiated a real-time early warning information sharing system on DPRK missiles, and confirmed that the system is available for full and normal operation. The triplex also prepares to develop a multi-year trilateral exercise plan within 2023 and to start implementing more efficient and systematic cross-domain trilateral military exercises from January 2024.

日前，美日韩三国军方正式启动朝鲜导弹预警信息实时共享系统，并确认该系统具备全面作战能力并能够正常运转。三国还计划年内制定“多年三边演练计划”——从2024年1月开始实施更高效、更具系统性、涉及多领域的三边军演。

The triplex claimed that activating this system is to mobilize all reconnaissance resources to collect military intelligence on the DPRK missile launches and reduce the errors in the detection results of the trilateral missile detection system. However, the main purpose and significance of this system implementation extend well beyond this. The implications on the regional strategic framework and security dynamics cannot be underestimated.

美日韩启动该系统的公开理由，是调动所有侦察资源收集朝鲜发射导弹情报的军事信息，减少三国导弹探测系统的探测结果误差，实现协同应对。然而，启动该系统的主要目的和意义却远非如此。此举对地区战略格局和安全形势的冲击不容小觑。

To contain China, the US had been dedicated to promoting the establishment of a trilateral security cooperation system with Japan and the ROK on the basis of its alliance with these two countries in the past decade, but has been mired in long-lasting stagnation due to contradictions between the latter two. The ROK Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye conservative administrations tried to remove the critical bottlenecks hindering the trilateral security cooperation through means including negotiating an intelligence exchange agreement with Japan, but made limited progress as a result of domestic opposition and government change. During the Moon Jae-in administration, the ROK made a commitment of "Three No's" on the THAAD issue to China, which refers to no participation in the US' missile defense network, no establishment of a trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan, and no additional THAAD deployment. The previous ROK government realized that the US-Japan-ROK alliance would do great harm to the Korean Peninsula and their national strategic interests, thereby adopting a more cautious position.

为了牵制中国，近十年来，美国在强化美日、美韩双边军事同盟合作基础上，一直致力于推动构建美日韩三边“安全合作”体系，但受日韩关系不和影响而长期停滞。韩国的李明博、朴槿惠两届保守政府曾采取构建韩日情报交换协定等方式，试图打通美日韩安全合作的关键堵点，但因韩国国内反对和政府更迭而进展有限。文在寅政府期间，韩国在萨德问题上对中国作出“三不”承诺，即不加入美国反导体系、韩美日安全合作不会发展为三方军事同盟、不考虑追加部署“萨德”系统。显然，此前的韩国政府意识到美日韩同盟化对朝鲜半岛和韩国战略利益的极大损害，因而采取了较为谨慎的立场。

With the intensification of strategic competition with China, the US has made the containment of China a key focus of its foreign strategies in recent years and taken every means to build a military encirclement against China in Northeast Asia. After coming into power in 2022, the Yoon Suk-yeol government significantly promoted security cooperation with the US and Japan. The ROK had been frequently visited by the US nuclear submarines and seen repeated anti-submarine exercises with the maritime forces of the US and Japan. In November 2022, the US-Japan-ROK Phnom Penh Summit first endorsed the establishment of a real-time shared intelligence system for missile early warnings and initiated relevant technological tests. In August 2023, the heads of the three countries reaffirmed in the joint statement at the Camp David Summit that they planned to achieve real-time early warning data sharing on DPRK missiles by the end of the year and regularly hold trilateral joint exercises for multiple domains. In November, the national security advisers of the triplex agreed to start the program from December. The US-ROK joint military exercises in 2024 will also incorporate nuclear combat scenarios.

随着中美战略竞争加剧，美国近年来将遏制中国作为主要对外战略目标，千方百计构筑针对中国的东北亚军事包围圈。2022年，韩国尹锡悦政府上台后，与美、日的安全合作大幅推进。美国核潜艇频繁造访韩国，美韩海军和日本海上自卫队多次进行反潜演习。2022年11月，美日韩金边峰会首次同意建立导弹预警实时共享情报系统，并开始进行相关技术测试。今年8月，三国元首在戴维营峰会的联合声明中重申，年底将实现对朝鲜导弹预警数据的实时共享、定期举行多领域三边联演。11月，美日韩三方国家安全顾问同意从12月开始启动该计划。明年的美韩联合军演还将包含核作战情景。

The US, Japan, and the ROK have integrated the detection, identification, and tracking operations by establishing the real-time shared missile early warning intelligence system, and will form a complete missile defense system after combining with the missile interception capability. The strategic implications of the system are more pronounced than the tactical significance. Consequently, the ROK is virtually integrated into the US-dominated missile defense system, and the quasi-military alliance among the three countries is progressively emerging as a significant factor in their efforts to restrain China. Such a move will greatly undermine the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, aggravate regional bloc tendency and tensions, and inevitably arouse the vigilance and countermeasures of the neighboring countries.

美日韩构建实时共享导弹预警情报系统，在探测、识别、追踪阶段实现了整合，后续再加上导弹拦截，将形成完整的导弹防御体系。相比于战术意义，更重要的是战略意涵。韩国由此在事实上被编入由美国主导的导弹防御体系，美日韩迈向三边准军事同盟，日益成为对华遏制的重要一环。此举将极大破坏东北亚的战略平衡，加剧地区阵营化和紧张对立，势必引起周边国家的警惕和反制。

However, the trilateral military alliance is no gospel for the development and security of Japan and the ROK. Since 2023, Russia and the DPRK have moved much closer to cope with the above triplex's continuously strengthened security cooperation in the region. Some media in the ROK also commented that their accelerated efforts on the trilateral alliance with the US and Japan for the sake of the strategic needs of the latter two will heighten the formation of a Cold War pattern in Northeast Asia, escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and greatly worsen the living environment and strategic interests of the ROK. Some ROK scholars are concerned that if the three countries increasingly drift towards a trilateral military alliance, the Korean Peninsula may evolve into the third high-risky geopolitical conflict area following the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict regions.

不过，三边军事同盟对日、韩本身的发展和安全绝非福音。2023年以来，俄罗斯与朝鲜大幅走近，重要原因之一就是应对美日韩在该地区不断加强安全合作的态势。一些韩国媒体也认为，韩国配合美、日的战略需要而加速走向美日韩三边同盟，将加剧东北亚形成冷战格局和朝鲜半岛紧张局势，极大恶化韩国的生存环境和战略利益。有的韩国学者担忧，如果美日韩在三边军事同盟的道路上越走越远，朝鲜半岛或将成为继乌克兰危机、巴以冲突之后，第三大高风险地缘冲突地区。

In the post-Cold War era, the prevailing trend in Northeast Asia is towards de-alignment and regional economic integration. China and major regional countries including Japan and the ROK have witnessed closer economic and cultural exchanges and increasingly deepened interdependence, which have enhanced the common well-being of all parties. At present, the US, Japan, and the ROK are hyping up the so-called China's "provocations", "threats" and "infringements on the international order" on the one hand, while increasing military pressure on China by constantly forming cliques, clamoring "decoupling and breaking chains", and actively creating geopolitical tensions on the other hand. In the face of repression and provocations from the US and its allies, China preserves strategic steadfastness and restraint in the regional and international arena, pursues regional peace and stability, and emphasizes cooperation, openness, and mutually beneficial outcomes. In the midst of the significant upheavals in global and regional conditions, the contrasting approaches pursued by China and the triplex can be easily distinguished.

后冷战时代，东北亚地区的主流是去阵营化、区域经济一体化，中国与日、韩等主要国家间的经济、人文交流密切，相互依赖日益加深，提升了各国的共同福祉。现在，美日韩一方面大肆炒作所谓的中国“挑衅”“威胁”“破坏国际秩序”，另一方面却不断拉帮结派，加大对华军事打压，鼓吹“脱钩断链”，主动制造地缘紧张。面对美国及其盟友的打压挑衅，中国在地区和国际舞台上仍然保持战略定力和战略克制，追求地区和平稳定，强调合作开放共赢。面对全球和地区形势的大变局，中国与美日韩所采取的截然不同的应对思路，可谓高下立判。

(The author is executive director of Institute of International Economics and Politics, Shandong Academy of Social Sciences.)

（作者是山东社科院国际问题研究中心执行主任）

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.