By Niu Xinchun
牛新春
As new conflicts and longstanding animosities intertwine, the Middle East region again teeters on the edge of large-scale wars. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock had successively paid a transit visit to the region in a bid to de-escalate the tensions.
新仇旧恨交织叠加，中东再次处于爆发大规模战争的边缘。美国国务卿布林肯、欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表博雷利和德国外长贝尔伯克如今相继穿梭访问中东，试图为紧张局势灭火降温。
In the past three months, the international community had generally assumed that the Gaza conflict would not trigger major regional wars as this was undesirable for all sides. However, stimulated by the conflict, the Middle East witnessed a concentrated eruption of both new and old conflicts. The adoption of brinkmanship by involved parties has greatly increased the conflict risks, which is somewhat similar to the situation in Europe before World War I.
过去3个月国际社会曾普遍认为，加沙冲突不会引爆大规模地区战争，因为这是各方都不想要的。然而，在加沙冲突的刺激下，中东新旧矛盾集中爆发。由于相关方追求“战争边缘政策”，战争风险大大上升，这在某种程度上有些类似于第一次世界大战前的欧洲局势。
The Iran-backed "axis of resistance" and the US-led "Western Center" originally represented the biggest and most fundamental contradiction in the Middle East. The former involves Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah, Yemen armed forces Houthi, Iraqi Jundallah, and Hamas in Gaza, while the latter consists of the US, Israel, and Gulf Arab countries. The US had imposed extreme sanctions on Iran, engineered regime changes in Syria, and listed Hizballah, Houthi, Jundallah, and Hamas as terrorist organizations. Some forces of the "axis of resistance" desired to evict the US military from the Middle East and "wipe Israel off the map", with opposition to Israel and the US constituting one of their foundational ideological pillars. Since 2023, relations between the Gulf Arab countries and Iran have eased but the US and Israel's contradictions with the "axis of resistance" forces have intensified, and the Gaza conflict took place under this background.
原本，以伊朗为首的“抵抗轴心”与以美国为首的“西方中心”就是中东最大、最根本的一对矛盾。“抵抗轴心”包括伊朗、叙利亚、黎巴嫩真主党、也门胡塞武装、伊拉克“真主旅”、加沙哈马斯，“西方中心”则由美国、以色列和海湾阿拉伯国家组成。美国对伊朗实施“极限制裁”，对叙利亚搞“政权更迭”，曾经把黎巴嫩真主党、胡塞武装、伊拉克“真主旅”、哈马斯都列为恐怖组织。“抵抗轴心”的一些力量则要把美军赶出中东，把以色列“从地图上抹掉”，反以反美是其意识形态支柱之一。但去年以来，海湾阿拉伯国家与伊朗关系有所缓和，美以同“抵抗轴心”的矛盾则在不断恶化，加沙冲突就是在这样的背景之下发生的。
Unlike previous Gaza conflicts, Israel has claimed to utterly annihilate rather than merely weaken Hamas this time. All forces of the "axis of resistance" have been actively working to distract and raise the war costs of the US and Israel, striving to avoid the eradication of Hamas. However, these forces are a loose coalition that hasn't regarded cooperation and support for Hamas as their overall purpose or even a prioritized goal. All the parties involved have their own long-standing goals and just intend to capitalize on the new grievances to resurrect the old resentments. The Houthis desire to boost their legitimacy within and outside Yemen, Jundallah wants to expel the US military from Iraq, and Iran hopes to expand its regional influence. Meanwhile, Israel, which has been dragging its feet in halting the fighting, is intent on maximizing the utility of every crisis by seeking to resolve the Hizballah issue in one fell swoop.
同前几次加沙冲突不同，这次以方宣称要彻底消灭哈马斯，而不仅仅是削弱哈马斯。“抵抗轴心”的各支力量都积极行动起来，分散美以的注意力，增加美以的战争成本，尽最大可能避免哈马斯被消灭。但“抵抗轴心”是一个松散的联盟，策应和支持哈马斯并非“抵抗轴心”行动的全部目的，甚至不是首要目标。相关各方都有自己本地的、长期存在的斗争目标，只不过这次各方都想借“新仇”之机翻出“旧恨”。胡塞武装要提升自己在也门内外的合法性，伊拉克“真主旅”想把美军赶出伊拉克，伊朗则希望借此扩大在地区的影响力。同时，迟迟不停火的以色列也不想浪费任何一场危机，试图一举把真主党问题也解决了。
In the context of the current complex multi-party game, there is a considerable likelihood of the situation spinning out of control, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza is trending in that direction. While striving to maximize their own interests, they perceive a high probability of the opponent making compromises and concessions based on their certainty that the other party does not desire war. Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Herzi Halevi said on January 8 that their military is increasing pressure on Hizballah with the expectation of an outcome of success or another fight. This is the typical thinking and logic of the brinkmanship.
在这种多方复杂博弈的背景下，局面失控的可能性不低，目前的加沙冲突就在往这个方向发展。在追求自身利益最大化的同时，因为吃准对方不想要战争，所以认为对方妥协让步的可能性大。以色列国防军参谋长哈莱维8日称，以军正在不断增加对真主党的军事压力，要么这个策略成功，要么再打一场战争。这是典型的战争边缘政策的思维和逻辑。
Driven by the brinkmanship, all parties concerned are seeing continuously compressed compromising space, which increases the possibility of war escalation. Israel purposefully killed the senior adviser in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Sayyed Razi Mousavi, and the deputy chairman of Hamas's political bureau Saleh al-Arouri, and threatened to initiate a war if Hizballah would not retreat to a point 28 kilometers north of the Lebanon-Israel border. All these are what Israel has been contemplating for years but has lacked the courage to carry out. Similarly, knowing that Houthis do not want to engage in warfare, the US shot dead 10 personnel and sunk three speedboats of this force in the Red Sea, and issued an ultimatum to the party. Hizballah launched an air strike on an aerial traffic control base in northern Israel on January 6, which was considered as the worst attack since 2006 by Israel but described as only a "preliminary response" by the initiator.
在战争边缘政策的推动下，有关各方妥协退让的空间变得越来越小，战争升级的可能性越来越大。以色列接连定点清除了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队高级顾问穆萨维、哈马斯政治局副主席阿鲁里，还要求真主党退回到黎以边境以北28公里处，否则就发动战争，这都是以色列多年来想做而不敢做的事情。同样，美国知道胡塞武装不想要战争，就在红海开火打死胡塞武装10名人员、击沉3艘快艇，还发出了最后通牒。真主党则在6日空袭了以色列北部一个空中交通管制基地，以色列认为这是2006年以来最严重的袭击，真主党则说这只是“初步反应”。
Amid the increasingly intensified confrontation between various parties, some extremist groups have also taken the opportunity to create chaos, making the situation even more bewildering. Iran had been targeted by the most severe terrorist attack since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the Islamic State (IS) had asserted its responsibility for the incident.
在各方对峙日益加剧的时候，极端组织也趁机生乱，使局势更加扑朔迷离。伊朗日前遭受1979年伊斯兰革命以来最严重的恐怖袭击事件，之后“伊斯兰国”宣布对此负责。
For the international community, the brinkmanship indicates that all parties desire a resolution on the brink rather than warfare, so there is still room to avoid large-scale wars through diplomatic efforts. However, the proximity between the brink and warfare should serve as a strong warning signal for everyone.
对国际社会而言，战争边缘政策中有两个字是“边缘”，各方想要的是边缘而不是战争，说明避免大规模战争还是有外交努力的空间。但是，从“边缘”到战争只有一步之遥，这足以对每个人都敲响警钟。
(The author is a professor at the China-Arab Research Institute, Ningxia University.)
（作者是宁夏大学中国阿拉伯国家研究院教授）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
