The UN Security Council holds an emergency open meeting on the Red Sea situation at the UN headquarters on January 3, 2024.这是1月3日在位于纽约的联合国总部拍摄的安理会关于红海局势紧急公开会现场。

By Shu Meng

舒梦

The Red Sea has witnessed persistent tensions and increasingly volatile crises recently. Since mid-November last year, Yemen Houthi armed forces have launched more than 20 attacks on the passing ships off the waters, significantly impacting regional stability, navigation traffic, and global supply chains. In the wake of the Gaza conflict, the Red Sea situation has become a focus of regional geopolitical disputes.

近日，红海局势持续紧张，危机不断发酵。自11月中旬以来，也门胡塞武装已在红海区域对过往船只发动了20余次袭击，给地区稳定、航运物流和全球供应链带来严重影响。继加沙冲突之后，红海局势成为地区地缘政治争端的焦点所在。

In recent years, the Red Sea region has garnered growing attention from the Gulf countries as they strive to create strategic anchor points in Djibouti, Eritrea, and other nations along the coastal line. Given its geographically sensitive and vital location, the situation of the Red Sea is closely related to the stability of the international economic and global trade. Consequently, this has led to increased interest from extraterritorial major powers, whose involvement and intervention have further complicated the regional situation.

近年来，海湾国家对红海地区的关注度不断增加，争相在吉布提、厄立特里亚等沿线国家打造战略立足点。因该地区地理位置具有高度敏感性与重要性，红海地区局势与国际经济和全球贸易稳定息息相关，这也引发了域外大国对该地区的关注。而域外大国的参与和介入，又让红海局势进一步复杂化。

Amid the stressful situation in the Red Sea, the regional crises have escalated into global security threats that have caused significant disruptions to international shipping and global supply chain security. To mitigate the risks in the region, some shipping companies have to hire armed guards at high prices, resulting in a nearly twofold surge in war risk premiums for shipping in the Red Sea. Certain shipping companies choose to bypass the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, further increasing the shipping costs and triggering global supply chain risks. Under these circumstances, it is imperative to cool down the regional situation.

自红海地区出现紧张局势以来，危机已上升为全球性安全威胁，对国际航运、全球供应链安全均带来严重冲击。一些航运公司为了防范红海地区的风险，高价聘请武装保安，红海海域的航运战争险保费已上涨近一倍。部分航运公司选择绕道非洲南端的好望角，进一步提高了航运成本，引发全球供应链风险。在这种情况下，红海地区局势亟需降温。

But judging from the developments of the current situation, it is particularly challenging to resolve the Red Sea crisis.

但从目前形势发展来看，红海危机的解决殊为不易。

First, the Red Sea security issue has become a crucial leverage for the Houthi armed forces to achieve outsized results. As the Yemen issue has been dragging on, the Houthis have taken various actions to enhance their legitimacy and influence within and outside the country and put pressure on Israel by relying on their geographical advantage in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Until the political settlement of the Yemen issue, the Houthis are not likely to significantly change this strategy. Second, countries surrounding the Red Sea face constant non-traditional security threats. The repeated and never-ending smuggling and human trafficking as well as the resurgence of terrorism and piracy in the Red Sea have exacerbated the complexity of the regional security situation.

首先，红海安全问题已成为胡塞武装以小博大的重要筹码。也门问题久拖不决，胡塞武装凭借在曼德海峡的地理优势，采取各种行动来增强其在国内外的合法性与影响力、并给以色列施压。在也门问题得以政治解决前，胡塞武装的这一策略难以出现大幅度转变。其次，红海周边国家非传统安全威胁不断。红海区域走私与人口贩卖活动屡禁不绝，恐怖主义活动和海盗活动又呈卷土重来之势，让该海域的安全形势更加复杂。

More importantly, the Red Sea region has become the most prominent spillover area of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As the conflict progresses, the confrontation between Israel and Hamas is transforming into conflicts between the two blocs, and the Red Sea region has become an important battlefield between the US and Israel camp and the resistance camp led by Iran. In the recent series of international incidents, the region has seen contradictions between the two sides further deepening and tensions and militarization tendency aggravating. In the coming period of time, the haze of the standoff between the two major factions will primarily loom over the Red Sea region, while the linkage between regional security and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will become more pronounced, and the Israeli-Palestinian contradictions will continue to be key factor for additional conflicts and disputes in the region.

更重要的是，红海地区已成为巴以冲突外溢的最显著地区。随着形势的发展，巴以冲突中以色列与哈马斯的对抗，正转变为两大阵营的对抗，而红海地区已成为美以阵营与伊朗为首的抵抗阵营之间对峙的重要战场。在最近的一系列国际事件中，双方在红海地区的矛盾进一步激化，紧张态势和军事化趋势加剧。在未来的一段时间内，两大阵营对峙的硝烟将主要弥漫在红海区域，而巴以问题与红海安全之间的联动性将更加明显，巴以矛盾将持续成为红海区域更多冲突和争端的重要因素。

Repressing violence with force will only prove counterproductive for the permanent settlement of the Red Sea crisis. In response to Houthi's attacks in the Red Sea region, the US formed a multinational maritime coalition to carry out the "Operation Prosperity Guardian" escorts. However, this operation failed to effectively deter Houthi, and the forces can still attack passing ships by breaching the escort security measures of the US. This has led to concerns about the safety of the shipping routes of the sea among vessel owners unrelated to Israel, further uplifting shipping costs, aggravating the contradictions and exacerbating the already tense atmosphere in the region. Furthermore, the convoy coalition formed by the US faces legitimacy deficits due to the absence of engagement from Middle Eastern countries. The political process in Yemen will become increasingly difficult to advance once accidental conflicts are sparked in the region.

要长效解决红海危机，以暴制暴只会适得其反。为应对胡塞武装在红海地区的袭击行动，美国组建多国海上联军，开展“繁荣卫士”护航行动。然而，该护航行动并未有效震慑胡塞武装，胡塞武装依然可以突破美国的护航安保措施袭击过往船只。这导致一些与以色列无关的船只也担忧红海航线的安全，引发航运成本的进一步上升，且激化了矛盾，加剧了地区的剑拔弩张之势。同时，美国组建的护航联盟缺乏中东大国的参与，面临合法性不足的问题，一旦局势擦枪走火，也门政治进程将更加难以推进。

Therefore, dialogue and negotiation offer an enduring solution to the Red Sea crisis, which should be implemented based on two principles. For one thing, the international community should work together to promote the political settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The current Red Sea situation is one of the manifestations of the spillover effect of the Gaza conflict. Should the appeals of Palestine continue to be ignored and marginalized, these spillover events will proliferate in various other locations. For another, in respect of other regional issues including the Iranian nuclear issue and the Yemen issue, seeking political solutions should be the foremost priority for the whole society.

因此，对话协商是解决红海危机的长效方案。坚持对话协商的原则应在两方面加以推行：一方面，国际社会应共同推进巴以问题的政治解决，当前红海局势是加沙冲突外溢影响的表现之一，如果巴勒斯坦的诉求继续被忽视和边缘化，未来，还会在其他地区出现更多的外溢事件；另一方面，在伊朗核问题、也门问题等地区问题上，国际社会也需优先寻求政治解决路径。

The long-standing existence of some hotspot issues in the Middle East and their spillover effects have demonstrated that repressing violence with force and overlooking the demands of parties concerned hinder the resolution of these problems. Merely easing the crises does not address the root cause, whereas upholding dialogue and negotiation and advancing political resolution are the fundamental and correct paths.

中东地区部分热点问题的长期存在及其不断涌现的外溢影响已经证明，以暴制暴、忽略当事方诉求的处理方式无益于问题的解决。仅仅缓和红海危机治标不治本，坚持对话协商，推进政治解决才是端本正源之道。

(The author is from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.)

（作者单位：上海外国语大学中东研究所）

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.