By Chen Yue and Zhang Wenwen
陈岳、张文文
The past year 2023 has seen frequent regional hotspots, with ongoing conflicts in Europe and renewed tensions in the Middle East. In the new year, issues such as national security, territorial sovereignty, and ethnic and religious matters are intertwined, contributing to increased instability, uncertainty, and unpredictable factors. However, the historical trend of peace, development, cooperation, and win-win situations remain unstoppable.
刚刚过去的2023年，地区热点频发，欧洲战事未熄、中东冲突又起。新的一年，国家安全、领土主权、民族宗教等问题复合交织，不稳定、不确定、难预料因素增多，但和平、发展、合作、共赢的历史潮流不可阻挡。
Military conflicts continue to escalate
军事冲突持续蔓延
Among various hotspots, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict remain the most globally concerned.
在诸多热点中，俄乌冲突和巴以冲突仍是全球最为关注的。
"Russia and Ukraine alternate attacks and defenses, with continuous casualties setting new records. It has turned into a protracted war of attrition, but the frontlines are generally stable, and both sides lack the capability to achieve significant breakthroughs on the battlefield," said Fang Ming, Deputy Researcher at the War Research Institute of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences. Both Russia and Ukraine have reiterated ceasefire conditions, but they cannot find a negotiation base and that will lead to a potential prolongation of the crisis.
“俄乌双方攻守交替，人员伤亡不断刷新纪录，进入持久消耗战，但战线基本稳定，双方均无力在战场取得重大突破。”军事科学院战争研究院副研究员方明说。俄乌双方均重申停火条件，但难以找到谈判基点，乌克兰危机可能长期化。
As the conflict situation continues to stagnate, "Ukraine fatigue" is spreading in Western countries. "After the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US military aid to Israel has diverted aid to Ukraine. Despite the recent agreement on security cooperation between the UK and Ukraine, aid plans from the EU and the US face significant uncertainties," according to Fang.
随着战场形势持续胶着，“乌克兰疲劳症”正在西方国家蔓延。“新一轮巴以冲突爆发后，美国对以色列的军援分流了对乌援助。尽管近日英国与乌克兰签署了安全合作协议，但欧盟和美国的对乌援助计划都面临着很大的不确定性。”方明表示。
As of January 14, 2024, the new round of conflict between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel has lasted for a full 100 days. On the day before, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would continue its military operations in the Gaza Strip until Hamas is eliminated, Israeli hostages are released, and the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel.
截至1月14日，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）和以色列的新一轮冲突已经持续整整100天。此前一天，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列将继续在加沙地带的军事行动，直至消灭哈马斯、被扣押以色列人获释、加沙地带不再对以色列构成威胁。
Xie Hao, Assistant Researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), expressed that Israel's words and actions imply that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue for a longer time, and an immediate ceasefire remains challenging for both sides.
中国现代国际关系研究院助理研究员谢浩表示，以方的言行意味着巴以冲突将持续更长时间，双方短时间仍难实现停火止战。
Spillover effects continue to emerge
外溢效应不断显现
Since the outbreak of the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, tensions have spread to Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and other countries. Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have engaged in continuous border skirmishes, while the US military bases in Iraq and Syria face frequent attacks. As the situation escalates following the assassination of Hamas's deputy chief, Saleh al-Arouri, on January 2 in the southern suburbs of Beirut, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah intensify.
本轮巴以冲突爆发以来，局势持续发酵，已经波及也门、黎巴嫩、伊拉克等国。以色列与黎巴嫩真主党在边境地区交火不断，美国在伊拉克和叙利亚的军事基地频频遇袭。进入新的一年，哈马斯政治局副主席萨利赫·阿鲁里1月2日在黎首都贝鲁特南郊遇袭身亡后，以色列与真主党的交火强度明显升级。
After Houthi forces in Yemen frequently used drones and missiles to attack ships "associated with Israel" in the southern Red Sea waters, the US and the UK jointly carried out airstrikes on multiple Houthi targets. "The development of the situation once again proves the intricate nature of security issues in the Middle East. Simple military means are not helpful in alleviating regional tensions and may even exacerbate conflicts," said Xie.
在也门胡塞武装频繁使用无人机和导弹袭击途经红海南部水域“与以色列有关联”的船只后，美国和英国联手空袭了多处胡塞武装目标。“事态的发展再次证明中东地区安全问题的错综复杂。简单的武力手段无助于缓解地区紧张局势，反而可能火上浇油，带来冲突升级的危险。”谢浩表示。
Frequent conflicts not only lead to sustained security turbulence but also have far-reaching effects in political, security, economic, and social domains. "Russia is a major producer of oil and natural gas globally, and Western sanctions disrupting market mechanisms have led to historically high natural gas prices in Europe," said Yuan Zhao, Deputy Researcher at the War Research Institute of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences. Under the impact of the war, Ukraine's grain production has sharply decreased, and exports are hindered, which has exacerbated food crises in Africa.
频发的冲突不仅导致安全形势持续动荡，其影响也从政治、安全外溢到经济、社会等领域。“俄罗斯是世界主要石油和天然气生产国，西方对俄多轮制裁干扰破坏市场机制，导致欧洲天然气价格一度创下历史新高。”军事科学院战争研究院副研究员原钊指出，在战火冲击之下，乌克兰粮食产量锐减、出口受阻，加剧了非洲国家的粮食危机。
In the past year, political upheavals occurred successively in countries including Sudan, Niger, and Gabon. "The unstable regional security situation has provided space for the resurgence and development of terrorist organizations," said Yuan, noting that as extremist groups like the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda gradually focus on the Sahel region of Africa as a primary survival and operational area, the counter-terrorism situation in multiple African countries may become more severe.
过去一年，苏丹、尼日尔、加蓬等国接连发生政治动荡。“地区安全局势不稳，也给恐怖组织的复苏和发展提供了空间。”原钊说，随着极端组织“伊斯兰国”和“基地”组织逐渐把非洲萨赫勒地区作为主要生存和活动区域，非洲多国反恐形势或将更加严峻。
Calls for ceasefire and peace continue to rise
停火止战呼声高涨
The prolonged conflicts have resulted in significant casualties and displaced populations. The international community continues to call for a ceasefire and the alleviation of humanitarian crisis.
冲突的持续延宕，导致大量人员伤亡和民众流离失所。国际社会要求停火止战、缓解人道主义危机的呼声持续高涨。
All parties involved should persist in resolving differences and disputes through dialogue and negotiation for a peaceful solution. At the same time, the international community should urge the parties involved to achieve more humanitarian ceasefires and enhance humanitarian assistance. This can avoid larger humanitarian crisis and supply essential living materials to civilians. It can also accumulate conditions for a comprehensive ceasefire and conflict resolution, said Xie.
谢浩表示，有关各方应坚持通过对话协商以和平方式解决分歧和争端。同时，国际社会应敦促冲突各方实现更多的人道主义停火，加强人道主义援助，一方面避免更大的人道主义危机，为平民补充必需的生活物资；另一方面以点带面，为全面停火、妥善解决冲突积累条件。
Fang said that in the past year, China has facilitated the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, an effort leading to a wave of reconciliation in the Middle East and constituting an important practice in the promotion of global security initiatives. In 2024, under China's mediation and promotion, representatives of the Myanmar military and three northern ethnic armed groups including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA),Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army held peace talks in Kunming, Yunnan, China, and reached a formal ceasefire agreement.
方明表示，过去一年，中方促成沙特和伊朗和解，带动了中东地区的和解潮，是推进全球安全倡议的重要实践。进入2024年，在中方斡旋和促推下，缅军同果敢、德昂、若开等三家缅北民地武组织代表在中国云南昆明举行和谈，并达成正式停火协议。
In his first overseas visit in the new year, Chinese Foreign Minister held discussions with relevant parties and issued a joint statement on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Palestine issue, actively promoted an early ceasefire, and prevented the conflict from further spilling over. These efforts highlight China's responsibility as a major country in maintaining global peace.
中国外交部长新年度首次出访，就巴勒斯坦问题和巴以冲突同有关方面交换意见，发表关于巴以冲突、巴勒斯坦问题的联合声明，积极推动尽快停火止暴，防止冲突进一步外溢。这些都彰显了中国在维护世界和平方面的大国担当。
Experts believe that all parties should uphold a common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security perspective. They should adhere to the overall direction of political resolution, adapt to the profound adjustments in the international landscape with the spirit of unity, address complex intertwined security challenges with a mindset of mutual benefit, eliminate the root causes of international conflicts, improve global security governance, inject more stability and certainty into an era of turbulence and change, and achieve lasting peace and development in the world.
受访专家普遍认为，各方应秉持共同、综合、合作、可持续的安全观，坚持政治解决的大方向，以团结精神适应深刻调整的国际格局，以共赢思维应对复杂交织的安全挑战，消弭国际冲突根源、完善全球安全治理，为动荡变化的时代注入更多稳定性和确定性，实现世界持久和平与发展。
