By Tian Wenlin
田文林
Smoke rises from a port of Gaza City after an Israeli assault during the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
新一轮巴以冲突中，加沙城港口遭以色列袭击后升起浓烟
The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has persisted for more than 100 days since its outburst on October 7, 2023, which has witnessed rarely lengthy duration, large scale and high intensity, numerous casualties and extensive spillover effect. In light of past occurrences, the current round of conflict reflects a series of significant changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, which deserves high attention from the international community.
新一轮巴以冲突自去年10月7日爆发以来，至今已持续超过100天。本轮冲突持续时间之长、规模强度之大、伤亡人数之多、外溢效应之广十分罕见。与以往相比，本轮巴以冲突折射出中东地缘政治格局正在发生一系列重要变化，值得国际社会高度关注。
The rightward drift of the Israeli government has become increasingly apparent.
以色列政府右倾化愈发明显
At the end of 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu, who had reestablished a presence in politics, completed the formation of the new Israeli government. This government is made up of six parties, including the far-right Religious Zionist Party. Due to the involvement of far-right forces, the government has been described by the media as the most right-wing government in Israel's history, featuring a foreign policy of seeking both land and peace. To put it bluntly, Israel under this leadership desires to gobble up more lands while ensuring its absolute security. After the outbreak of the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the government has shown its far-right posture to the fullest. At the beginning of the conflict, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant openly threw out the extreme statement that they were "fighting against human animals." On January 2, 2024, Israel executed the targeted elimination of the deputy head of the Hamas politburo Saleh al-Arouri, making the hopeful second ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel vanish like soap bubbles. According to a UN report released on January 19, more than 24,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip over the past 100 days since the conflict erupted, and 70% of them are women and children. Besides, 85% of the whole population in Gaza has been displaced, including one million women and girls. Multiple indications suggest that the Israeli government remains steadfast in its policies despite the mounting international pleas and pressure for a halt to the fighting, and exhibits an increasingly evident inclination towards right-leaning policies. In this context, the prospect of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue through the two-state solution has become increasingly bleak.
2022年底，在政坛上东山再起的内塔尼亚胡完成组建新一届以色列政府。这届政府由6个政党组成,其中包括极右翼政党宗教犹太复国主义者党。由于极右翼势力的加入，该政府被媒体称为以色列“有史以来最右政府”，其对外政策主要表现为“既要土地，也要和平”。直白地说，在这届政府领导下，以色列既想吞并更多土地，也要确保自身绝对安全。本轮巴以冲突爆发后，以政府更是将其“极右姿态”展现得淋漓尽致。冲突爆发之初，以色列国防部长加兰特公然抛出以军正同“人形动物”作战的极端言论。今年1月2日，以色列“定点清除”了哈马斯政治局副主席阿鲁里，让原本有望达成的巴以第二轮停火协议化为泡影。根据联合国1月19日发布的报告，新一轮巴以冲突爆发100多天来，超过2.4万巴勒斯坦人在加沙地带被打死，其中70%为妇女和儿童。加沙地带总人口的85%失去家园，包括100万妇女和女童。种种迹象表明，以色列政府并没有因为国际社会日益强烈的停火止战呼声和压力而改变政策，其政策右倾化趋势反而愈加明显。在这样的背景下，通过“两国方案”解决巴以问题的希望更加渺茫。
New anti-Israel alliance is emerging in the Middle East.
中东新的反以联盟逐渐形成
During the Cold War, the entire Arab world was the main force resisting Israel. After the Fourth Middle East War, the anti-Israel coalition among Arab countries began to collapse for various reasons, so the Palestinian people had to rely more on themselves to solve the issue. For a long time later, the focus of resolving the conflict had moved from primarily resorting to war to emphasizing peace talks. After winning the general election in 2006, Hamas became the main force in the Palestinian resistance against Israel. Last October, Hamas fired thousands of rockets into Israel during the Jewish holidays, and even crossed into Israel and captured a number of military officers and soldiers there, which directly initiated the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
冷战时期，反抗以色列的主体力量是整个阿拉伯世界。第四次中东战争后，由于多种原因，阿拉伯国家反以联盟开始瓦解，巴勒斯坦人民只能更多地依靠自己解决问题，。此后很长一段时间，巴以问题的解决方式从战争为主转为和谈为主。在2006年举行的大选中获胜后，哈马斯成为巴勒斯坦反抗以色列的主力军。去年10月，哈马斯在犹太假日期间不但向以色列发射数千枚火箭弹，还越境进入以色列境内俘获多名以军官和士兵，这也直接开启了本轮巴以冲突。
Armed groups in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have stepped in after the reignition of the war between Israel and Palestine. Among them, the Yemen Houthi armed forces frequently attacked ships related to Israel and the US in the Red Sea to show their support for Palestine. The Lebanese Hizballah constantly engaged in fighting with Israel in the border area between them, repeatedly fired rockets at Israel, and launched a drone attack on the headquarters of the Israeli army's northern headquarters. Iraqi armed groups also commenced successive assaults on Israel, and even claimed to have stricken Haifa, a key port city of Israel, by using cruise missiles. The armed groups of Syria also assaulted the US military bases in the country. According to statistics, the US forces in Syria had suffered 83 attacks from October 17, 2023 to January 17, 2024.
巴以重燃战火后，也门、黎巴嫩、叙利亚和伊拉克的武装组织纷纷介入。其中，也门胡塞武装频频在红海袭击与以色列和美国相关联的船只，以此表示对巴勒斯坦的支持。黎巴嫩真主党在黎以边境地区与以色列交火不断，多次向以色列发射火箭弹，还出动无人机袭击以军北方司令部。伊拉克武装组织也对以色列境内多次发动袭击，甚至宣称使用巡航导弹打击了以色列的重要港口城市海法。在叙利亚，武装组织还对美军基地发起袭击。据统计，自去年10月17日至今年1月17日，驻叙美军遭受了83次袭击。
As a regional power in the Middle East, Iran has repeatedly expressed support for Hamas in public, while calling on the Islamic world to impose collective economic sanctions on Israel, and providing support to militia armed groups in countries like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In the Middle East and even the entire Islamic world, Iran can be considered as the vanguard of resistance against Israel.
作为中东地区强国，伊朗多次公开表态支持哈马斯，同时呼吁伊斯兰世界对以色列进行集体经济制裁，还向伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩等国的民兵武装组织提供支持。如今放眼中东乃至整个伊斯兰世界，伊朗可谓是站在反以最前沿的国家。
Facts show that a new anti-Israel coalition mainly composed of non-state actors is taking shape in the Middle East. Compared with the former anti-Israel alliance among Arab countries, the new coalition is characterized by flexibility and high decentralization. For the time to come, Israel is probably to be ensnared in the whirlpool of protracted low-intensity conflict, and it remains to be seen whether the country can cope with this asymmetric war as effectively as before.
事实表明，在中东地区，以多个“非国家行为体”为重要组成部分的新反以联盟正在形成。与曾经的阿拉伯国家反以联盟相比，这个新联盟具有灵活机动、高度分散等特点。未来，以色列很可能长期陷入低烈度冲突的漩涡，能否像以往那样有力应对这场“非对称战争”有待观察。
The US is losing its hold on Israel.
美国对以的掌控力正在下降
During the US-Soviet rivalry, Israeli-Palestinian conflicts occasionally arose but tended to be of short duration, which was closely relevant to the roles played by the superpowers.
美苏争霸时期，巴以冲突也时有发生，但持续时间普遍不长，这与超级大国在其中发挥的作用密切相关。
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US held the dominant position in the Middle East. With the support of the US, Israel is aggressive and reckless on the issue with Palestine. The US has long favored and supported Israel mainly because it regards Israel as a pawn to promote its Middle East policies. Historically, Israel had done much for the US over issues such as opposing communism, Arab nationalism and Iranian Khomeinism. However, as the US has gradually shifted its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific in recent years, the divergences between the US and Israel have become increasingly apparent. Israel, for its own sake, does not want the US to leave the Middle East. In the wake of the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel insisted on protracting and expanding the conflict despite persuasion from the US, mainly in a bid to pull the US back to the Middle East and help it suppress Iran and other regional opponents. The recent fighting between the US and the Houthis signals that Israel's goals are being achieved. This also proves that the US is losing its hold over Israel and even begins to be swayed by Israel.
苏联解体后，美国在中东地区一家独大。以色列凭借美国的撑腰，在巴以问题上咄咄逼人、肆意妄为。美国之所以长期偏袒和力挺以色列，主要是因为美国把以色列看作推行其中东政策的“马前卒”。历史上，以色列曾在反对共产主义、阿拉伯民族主义、伊朗霍梅尼主义等问题上，为美国出了很多力。然而，随着美国近年来逐渐将战略重心从中东转向亚太，美国与以色列的分歧日趋明显。以色列出于对自身利益的考量，并不希望美国离开中东。这次巴以冲突爆发后，以色列不顾美国的劝说，执意将冲突持久化、扩大化，主要目的就是将美国重新拉回中东，帮其打压伊朗等地区对手。近期美国与胡塞武装开战，意味着以色列的目标正在实现。这也从一个侧面证明，美国对以色列的掌控力正在下降，甚至开始被以色列牵着走。
This year marks a significant election year in the US. Out of this consideration, the Biden administration is highly probable to impose certain pressure on Israel, but Netanyahu will not simply be a passive follower. This will undoubtedly increase the risks of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict spiraling out of control and make the Middle East situation increasingly unpredictable.
今年，美国迎来大选之年。出于对选情的考虑，拜登政府大概率会在一定程度上向以色列施压，但内塔尼亚胡不会言听计从，这种局面无疑会让巴以冲突失控的风险大增，同时使中东地区局势走向变得更加难以预测。
(The author is a professor of the School of International Studies and a senior researcher of the School of Global and Area Studies at Renmin University of China.)
（作者系中国人民大学国际关系学院教授、中国人民大学区域国别研究院高级研究员）
