By Shao Jie

邵杰

US troops stationed in northeastern Jordan near the border with Syria were attacked by drones on the evening of January 27 EST, which killed three US soldiers and wounded dozens more. The attack marks the most devastating incidents suffered by US troops in the Middle East since the outbreak of a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, sending a dangerous signal of the ongoing spillover of the conflict, which may bring a  significant impact on the regional situation.

驻扎在约旦东北部靠近叙利亚边境的美军在美东时间27日晚遭无人机袭击，造成3名美军士兵死亡、多人受伤。这是自去年10月7日新一轮巴以冲突爆发以来，驻中东地区美军遭受的最惨重袭击，也是巴以冲突不断外溢的危险信号，恐对地区局势产生重大影响。

Regarding the perpetrators or participants of this attack, the US stated in the first instance that it was linked to Iran. In a statement, Biden mentioned that the US is still collecting information related to the attack but believed it was carried out by Iran-backed militants in Syria and Iraq. The US will hold accountable those who carry out the attack at a time and place of their choosing.

对于此次袭击的实施方或参与者，美方在第一时间表示，他们与伊朗有关。拜登在声明中说，美方仍在搜集与这起袭击相关的信息，但认为这是由叙利亚和伊拉克境内受伊朗支持的武装组织发动的一次袭击。美方将“择机以自己的方式”追究发动袭击者的责任。

The US is still investigating the attack, but it has eagerly accused Iran with certainty even before the completion of the investigation. Analysts pointed out that based on the timing and location of the attack, it is not completely ruled out that other militants unrelated to Iran may have been responsible.

美方当下仍在对此次袭击进行调查，在调查尚未完成的情况下就急切地“言之凿凿”指控伊朗。分析人士注意到，从袭击的时间和地点来看，还不能完全排除与伊朗无关的其他武装组织发动袭击的可能性。

The UK has also accused Iran of being responsible for the attack. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani stated that UK's accusation is "entirely groundless" and emphasized that Iran does not have any local proxy organizations, as reported by IRNA on January 29.

英国也指责伊朗应对此次袭击负责。伊通社29日报道，伊朗外交部发言人纳赛尔·卡纳尼表示，英方这一指责“毫无根据”，并强调伊朗在当地没有任何代理组织。

Previously, the US attributed almost all attacks occurring outside the scope of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict against US and other Western countries, and Israel-related targets to Iran-backed militants. This practice appears to have become customary for the US.

此前，美国把巴以冲突范围之外发生的、针对美国和其他西方国家以及与以色列相关目标的袭击，几乎全都算在与伊朗有关武装组织的头上。如此做法似乎已成为美国惯例。

The US has long considered Iran as one of its biggest challenges in the Middle East, and escalating sanctions, assassinations of Iranian military or other personnel, and accusations against Iran have become commonplace. Additionally, the US aims to reassure its regional allies through actions such as pledging retaliation, thereby alleviating their concerns that the US may not be able to control the situation in the region.

长期以来，美国一直把伊朗视为其在中东地区的最大麻烦之一，针对伊朗层层加码的制裁、对伊朗军方人士或其他人员的暗杀以及对伊朗的各种指责，已成为家常便饭。此外，美国还希望通过誓言报复等行动安抚地区盟友，以减轻盟友对美国可能无法控制地区局势的担忧。

After the attack, Jordan's response was ambiguous. Muhannad Mubaidin, Jordan's Minister of Government Communications and spokesperson, initially stated on January 28 that the attack did not occur in Jordan. However, he later clarified that the attack took place at an outpost near the Syrian border.

袭击发生后，约旦方面的反应比较低调。约旦政府通信大臣兼发言人穆罕纳德·穆拜丁28日先是表示此次袭击没有发生在约旦境内，后来又说袭击发生在约旦与叙利亚边境上的“前沿地带”。

The US military bases and troops in the Middle East are located in many countries. With the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, these bases and troops could become targets. The most devastating attack against US troops since the outbreak of the recent round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has involved Jordan, which may be attributed to Jordan's unique circumstances.

美国在中东地区的军事基地和驻军，遍及当地多个国家。随着巴以冲突外溢，这些基地和驻军都有可能成为袭击目标。而这次巴以新一轮冲突爆发以来美军所遭受的最惨重袭击涉及约旦，这或与约旦的特殊性有关。

First, Jordan shares a border with Israel and the West Bank occupied by Israel to the west, Syria to the north, and Iraq and Saudi Arabia to the east. Arguably, Jordan is a perfect geographic pathway for the spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

首先，约旦西接以色列和被以色列占领的约旦河西岸巴勒斯坦地区，北连叙利亚，东部与伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯接壤。可以说，如果巴以冲突外溢需要一条地理路径的话，约旦恐怕是不二之选。

Second, Palestinians constitute more than half of Jordan's population. The number of Palestinians living in Jordan even exceeds that of Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

其次，约旦人口中，巴勒斯坦人占一半以上。生活在约旦境内的巴勒斯坦人数，甚至超过约旦河西岸和加沙地区的巴勒斯坦人数。

Third, Jordan has consistently maintained a delicate balance between different parties. It established diplomatic relations with Israel and maintained close ties with the US, which invited strong criticism from radical forces both domestically and internationally. Extremists have been operating covertly within Jordan, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who is a Jordanian.

再次，约旦一直在各方之间保持微妙平衡，既同以色列建立外交关系，也与美国关系密切，因此受到国内外激进势力的强烈指责。极端势力一直在约旦暗中活动，“基地”组织伊拉克分支头目扎卡维就是约旦人。

Due to the reasons mentioned above, the purpose of the attack on US troops stationed in Jordan is to incite anti-American and anti-Israel sentiments within Jordan, escalate conflicts, and further exacerbate regional tensions. It is evident that if the relevant parties do not make immediate efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but instead allow it to escalate, the regional situation will become worse and the interests of more countries are likely to be significantly impacted.

由于上述原因，本次武装分子对驻约美军发动袭击，其目的就是想挑起约旦国内反美、反以情绪，激化矛盾，进一步加剧地区紧张。可见，如果相关各方不努力尽快平息巴以冲突，而是任由冲突外溢，地区局势甚至更多国家的利益恐将受到更严重影响。