By Zou Zhiqiang

邹志强

It is reported that on February 2, the US military used warplanes and drones to carry out airstrikes on targets such as command centers, weapons depots and other facilities of Iranian-backed armed groups in Syria and Iraq, in retaliation for the deaths of three US soldiers in Jordan who were killed in a drone strike.

2月2日，据报道，美军出动战机和无人机，对叙利亚和伊拉克境内受伊朗支持的武装组织的指挥部、武器仓库和其他设施等目标进行空袭，这是对3名驻约旦美军士兵遭无人机袭击丧生的报复。

Prior to this, US military bases in Iraq and Syria had been subjected to several attacks, most of which were believed to have been carried out by militia groups from Syria and Iraq, such as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. These militant groups claimed that the attacks were in response to US support for Israel's attack on Hamas and to force the withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq and other places. According to the US military, US military bases in the Middle East have come under major attack since October 2023. This is the first time a US military base in Jordan has been attacked, and the first time a US soldier has died since the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel.

此前，美国在伊拉克、叙利亚的军事基地已经多次遭遇袭击，其中多数被认为是来自于伊拉克“伊斯兰抵抗组织”等叙伊两国的民兵武装组织。这些武装组织声称袭击是对美国支持以色列打击巴勒斯坦哈马斯的回应，以及为了促使所有美军撤离伊拉克等地。美国军方称，2023年10月以来，美国的中东军事基地曾遭遇较大规模的袭击。此次约旦美军基地不仅是首次遇袭，更是新一轮巴以冲突爆发以来首次有美军士兵死亡。

In response to the frequent attacks on military bases in the Middle East, the US has repeatedly conducted airstrikes against militia forces in Iraq and Syria. However, the deterrent effect has been very limited, and the US is unable to stop the swarming attacks and harassment by local militia groups. The US confirmed that the attack on its military base in Jordan was carried out by the Iraqi militia, Islamic Resistance. The US believes they are supported by Iran and has repeatedly accused Iran of being the hidden hand behind these incidents. There have even been voices within the US calling for a direct strike against Iran, raising widespread concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East. However, both the Pentagon and the White House have stated that they "do not want a war with Iran", with President Joe Biden reiterating his desire to avoid a wider conflict in the Middle East. This suggests that the US is trying to strike a balance between a strong response and avoiding conflict spillover.

为回应驻中东军事基地的频繁遇袭，美国多次对伊拉克和叙利亚的民兵武装进行空中打击，然而威慑效果十分有限，根本无法遏制当地民兵武装蜂群式的袭击和骚扰。此次约旦美军基地遇袭，美国确认是伊拉克民兵武装“伊斯兰抵抗组织”所为。美国认为其受到伊朗的支持，多次指责伊朗是这一切的“幕后黑手”，美国国内甚至有声音要求直接打击伊朗，这使外界普遍担忧可能出现更大范围的中东冲突。但美国国防部和白宫都表示“不希望与伊朗开战”；美国总统拜登重申不希望中东地区爆发“更广泛的冲突”。这表明美国试图在强力回应和避免冲突外溢之间实现某种平衡。

The frequent attacks on US military bases in the Middle East not only put military and political pressure on the Biden administration but also reflect the awkward position of the US in the Middle East.

美军中东基地频繁遇袭，不仅给拜登政府带来军事和政治压力，也反映出当前美国在中东地区顾此失彼、进退失据的尴尬处境。

The US is increasingly confronted with the challenges of asymmetric conflicts in the Middle East. Various non-state actors in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and militia groups in Iraq and Syria, have wielded increasing influence in the region and exhibited distinct anti-American and anti-Israeli characteristics. Traditional US military advantages and deterrence are difficult to apply against these non-state armed groups. They use rockets, drones, missiles, and other means to flexibly attack US military bases and facilities in the Middle East, keeping the US constantly on the defensive and trapped in the dilemma of asymmetric conflict.

美国在中东地区遭遇日益突出的非对称冲突挑战。中东地区广泛存在各种非国家行为体，黎巴嫩真主党、巴勒斯坦哈马斯、也门胡塞武装、伊拉克和叙利亚的民兵武装在中东局势中拥有日益增大的影响力，并表现出鲜明反美、反以特征。美国的传统军事优势和威慑能力，难以对这些非国家武装组织发挥作用，他们利用火箭炮、无人机、导弹等方式对美军中东基地和设施灵活发动袭击，使美防不胜防、疲于奔命，陷入非对称冲突的困境。

The fragmented approach of the US in dealing with the Middle East crisis makes it difficult to solve the problem fundamentally. The recent frequent attacks on US military bases are closely related to the core issue of the Palestine-Israel conflict. The uninvited presence of US forces in Syria and their reluctance to leave Iraq have already met with resistance from the respective governments and populations. The outbreak of the latest round of the Palestine-Israel conflict and the apparent US favoritism toward Israel have greatly stimulated anti-US sentiment in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, non-state armed groups have become more active in responding to the Gaza conflict with attacks, expanding their influence and, of course, targeting local US military bases. Meanwhile, the US treats the crises in Palestine, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria in a compartmentalized manner, avoiding its responsibility for the core issues in the Middle East and attempting to resolve the crises separately through force. The result will only add fuel to the fire and cause the conflict to spread further.

美国在应对中东危机中割裂式的应对之策，难以从根本上解决问题。近期美军基地频繁遇袭，与巴以冲突这一中东核心问题密切相关。美军在叙利亚不请自来和在伊拉克赖着不走，本就遭到所在国政府和民众的反对。新一轮巴以冲突的激烈爆发和美国对以色列的明显偏袒，又极大地刺激了中东地区的反美情绪。在此背景下，非国家武装组织更趋活跃，通过袭击行动回应加沙冲突，扩大自身影响力，当地的美军基地自然成为其袭击的靶子。与此同时，美国割裂式地看待在巴勒斯坦、也门、伊拉克和叙利亚等地的危机，回避在中东核心问题上的责任，企图通过武力分别解决危机，其结果只会是火上浇油，导致冲突不断扩散。

The US strategic disengagement from the Middle East and its established strategy of maintaining regional dominance has encountered new resistance. The US hopes to maintain regional dominance by coordinating a limited military presence and alliances in line with its strategic withdrawal from the Middle East, and to focus on great power competition. However, the regional turmoil since the outbreak of the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not only disrupted US plans to mediate between Israel and Arab countries, but has also forced the US to increase its military, political and diplomatic involvement in the Middle East and even to return to the region in the short term.

美国的中东战略收缩与维持地区主导权的既定战略遭遇新阻力。美国希望借助有限军事存在和盟友联合来配合其中东战略收缩，努力维持地区主导权，集中精力开展大国竞争。但新一轮巴以冲突爆发以来的地区乱局，不仅打乱了美国撮合以色列与阿拉伯国家改善关系的计划，还不得不加大对中东的军事、政治和外交投入，甚至短期内被迫重返中东。

In the future, the comprehensive game between the US-Israeli camp and the "resistance camp" led by Iran will continue on multiple fronts, with indirect conflicts and shadow wars on many fronts being inevitable. However, it must be noted that the current situation in the Middle East is highly complex and sensitive, and the vicious cycle of attacks and retaliation will only lead to further escalation of regional tensions.

未来，美以阵营与以伊朗为首“抵抗阵营”之间的全方位博弈仍将持续展开，多条战线上的间接冲突和“暗战”难以避免。但须知，当前中东地区局势高度复杂敏感，袭击与报复的恶性循环必将导致地区紧张局势的进一步升级。

（作者单位：复旦大学中东研究中心）

(The author is from the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Fudan University.)