By Nie Shuyi

聂舒翼

February 24 marks the second anniversary of the escalating Ukraine crisis. The two-year crisis has not only caused heavy casualties on both sides of the conflict but has also had a profound impact on the geopolitical, economic, and security situations in Europe and even the world. Currently, Russia and Ukraine are caught in a stalemate on the battlefield and at daggers drawn in politics. What's worse, the US-led Western countries continue to fan the flames, and there is still no sign of hope for peace.

2月24日是乌克兰危机升级两周年。延宕两年的危机不但令冲突双方死伤惨重，也对欧洲乃至国际地缘政治、经济、安全局势造成冲击。目前，俄乌双方在战场上陷入僵局，政治上尖锐对立，加上美西方仍在持续拱火加油，和平曙光仍未显现。

Two years of conflict have caused devastating losses in the region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on February 25 that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the outbreak of the conflict. According to UNHCR, more than four million people are currently displaced within Ukraine, with an additional six million becoming refugees outside of the country. Ukraine's infrastructure, cities and villages have been severely damaged. Basic utilities such as energy, water supply, and transportation, as well as essential services like healthcare and education, have been largely unavailable in many regions. The general public has been deprived of the fundamental services they rely on for survival. The right to health and even the right to life are under threat. Additionally, the conflict has extended its negative impact to areas such as food, energy security, and the environment.

两年冲突给地区造成惨重损失。乌克兰总统泽连斯基2月25日表示，冲突爆发以来，乌军已有3.1万士兵阵亡。据联合国难民署的统计，乌克兰目前有超过400万人在境内流离失所，另有600万人在他国沦为难民；乌克兰的基础设施、城镇和乡村都造成了严重破坏，许多地区的能源、供水、交通等基础设施以及医疗、教育等服务也基本丧失，普通民众失去了赖以生存的基本服务，健康权乃至生命权都受到威胁。同时，冲突还在粮食、能源安全以及生态等领域带来外溢效应。

Two years of conflict have dealt a heavy blow to the European economy. Last year, Europe's economy was trapped in slow growth due to soaring energy prices, high inflation, substantial losses to businesses, shrinking real wages, and declining purchasing power under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a global economic downturn. Germany, the "engine" of Europe's economy, has been severely affected and experienced negative growth in 2023, making it the only European power with a contracting economy. On February 21, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck revised his economic growth forecast for 2024 from 1.3% to 0.2%. According to a report by the German Institute for Economic Research, Germany's economy has lost about EUR 240 billion in the past two years, and German citizens have collectively reduced consumption by EUR 400 billion in 2022 and 2023.

两年冲突给欧洲经济造成不小影响。在俄乌冲突的阴影笼罩下，能源价格飙升，通胀高企，企业遭受巨大损失，民众实际工资缩水，购买力下降，加之全球经济低迷，欧洲经济去年陷入低增长泥潭。欧洲经济的“发动机”德国受损尤为严重，2023年德国经济遭遇了负增长，成为唯一一个经济萎缩的欧洲大国。德国经济部长哈贝克2月21日宣布将2024年经济增长预测从1.3%调低至0.2%。德国经济研究所的报告称，德国经济在过去两年约失去了2400亿欧元，德国民众在2022年和2023年累计减少消费4000亿欧元。

The conflict has far-reaching implications for the already unequal transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe. The objective of European integration is to achieve strategic autonomy. However, European strategic autonomy has faced unprecedented challenges since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Taking advantage of the Ukraine crisis, the US has strengthened its political, military, and economic control over Europe, further binding Europe to its agenda and throttling European strategic autonomy. In the view of US politicians, it is in its best interests to weaken Europe and make it dependent on the US. The US sees its "allies" and "partners" as mere pawns to serve its hegemonic strategy. As stated by Sevim Dagdelen, a member of the German Bundestag, "What the US wants is not an alliance but a loyal servant."

这场冲突给本就不平等的美欧跨大西洋伙伴关系带来深远影响。战略自主一直是欧洲一体化事业的目标。然而，自乌克兰危机升级以来，欧洲战略自主遭受空前挑战。利用乌克兰危机升级，美国加强了对欧洲政治、军事和经济上的控制，进一步把欧洲绑定在自己的战车上，紧扼欧洲战略自主的咽喉。在美国政客们看来，弱化欧洲、使之不得不依附于美国，最符合美国的利益。美国口中的“盟友”“伙伴”只不过是服务其霸权战略的“棋子”。正如德国联邦议院议员塞维姆•达代伦所说：“美国想要的不是盟友，而是忠诚的仆从。”

In its third year, the Ukraine crisis has become increasingly prolonged, complicated, and extensive. It is regrettable that this avoidable tragedy has reached its current state, which deserves deep reflection. History has proven that the final solution of any conflict lies in returning to the negotiation table. The ins and outs, rights and wrongs of this crisis will be judged by history, and the most pressing matter now is to restore peace. Unfortunately, as the current situation stands, the US-led Western countries still appear unwilling to cease adding fuel to the fire.

乌克兰危机进入第三年，已经呈现长出期化、复杂化、扩大化态势。这场本可以避免的悲剧发展到今天的地步，令人痛惜，也值得深刻反思。历史经验证明，任何冲突的终点都是回到谈判桌。这场危机的来龙去脉、是非曲直历史自会有公论，当前最紧迫的是恢复和平。令人遗憾的是，从现在的情况来看，美西方似乎仍不愿意停止对局势拱火浇油。

The prolonged, complex, and escalating Ukraine crisis contradicts the common interests of the international community. As long as there is a glimpse of hope for peace, there should be continuous efforts to promote it. If peace talks had commenced a day earlier, losses would have been reduced. Lose-lose dynamics became a keyword during the recent Munich Security Conference, reflecting the apprehension and unease of the international community. The US and Europe should genuinely push for a resolution to the crisis, putting an end to a conflict that should never have occurred.

乌克兰危机长期化、复杂化、扩大化不符合国际社会共同利益。只要和平还有一线希望，就应不放弃促和努力；如果早一天开启和谈，损失就会减少一分。“双输”在日前举行的慕尼黑安全会议期间成为关键词，折射出国际社会的焦虑和不安。美欧应真心实意地推动危机解决，让这场本就不该爆发的冲突真正画上句号。