By Wang Daning

王大宁

Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks that sending Western troops to Ukraine is not "ruled out" have made the divergent positions between the country and Germany known to the public. The ability of these two backbone nations of the EU to effectively manage their differences has profound impacts on the international status of the EU and even the European security situation.

近日，法国总统马克龙关于西方“不排除向乌克兰派兵可能”的言论，使得法德两国之间的立场分歧公开化。被视为欧盟“主心骨”的法德两国,能否有效管控分歧，对欧盟的国际地位乃至欧洲安全局势都有深远影响。

Apparently conflicting stances between France and Germany

法德立场龃龉浮现

On February 26, Macron said at an international conference in support of Ukraine in Paris that the West should not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented that this only represented Macron's personal attitude, saying that "there would be no ground troops on Ukrainian soil, no soldiers sent there from European states or NATO states". Macron then satirically jabbed at Germany for its indecisiveness on the military aid to Ukraine. Obviously, the frictions between the French and German leaders over this issue are evolving into open discord.

2月26日，马克龙在巴黎召开的“支持乌克兰国际会议”上表示，西方不应排除向乌克兰派遣军队的可能性。德国总理朔尔茨表示“这只是马克龙的个人态度”“德国联邦国防军永远不应当出现在乌克兰土地上”。马克龙随即讽刺德国在援乌问题上犹豫不决。显然，法德两国首脑围绕对乌军事援助的摩擦，正在演变成公开的不和。

However, Macron's radical remarks about sending troops have significant deviation from the role he has consistently played as a mediator since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Known for softness towards Russia, Macron's genuine intent is not centered on assisting Ukraine, but rather directed towards other aspects. First, he intends to rebuke Germany and other countries for blindly following the US to fuel the Ukraine issue, leading to a backfire and self-inflicted consequences, yet come to a sticky end and face difficulties to escape the predicament. Second, he hints that European countries should resolve the regional crises autonomously rather than slavishly following the US, and France has the willingness and capability to take the lead in promoting European independence and autonomy.

然而，马克龙显得激进的“派兵论”，与其俄乌冲突爆发以来一直扮演的“居间调停者”角色大相径庭。背着“对俄软弱”名头的马克龙，其真意并不在援乌，而是另有着力点。一是抨击德国等国盲从美国在乌克兰问题上“拱火添油”，以致引火烧身、自食其果，却又难脱窘境、难以收场。二是暗示欧洲各国应当自主解决欧洲的危机，不应对美国亦步亦趋，法国有意愿和能力做推动欧洲独立自主的“领头羊”。

The political rhetoric in Germany reflects that the country and other European allies are more inclined to follow the US than France on the Ukrainian issue. Furthermore, Germany still adheres to the bottom line of not directly sending troops to Ukraine and avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.

德国政界的表态则反映出，在乌克兰问题上，德国及欧洲盟友更愿追随美国而非法国。另外，德国依然坚持“不直接出兵乌克兰”“避免与俄罗斯直接对抗”的底线。

Reasons for intensified contradictions

矛盾激化有因可溯

From reconciliation to cooperation and to the backbone of the EU, the Franco-German Axis had been a model of coordination among major European countries and the main driving force of regional integration. Nevertheless, amidst the intricate shifts in the European dynamics in recent years, especially the impacts of the situation in Ukraine, the strained relationship between the two countries is readily observable. In this regard, there are comments that the fissures between the two nations are becoming increasingly evident, and their vying for EU dominance has been brought to the forefront.

从和解走向合作进而成为欧盟“主心骨”，“法德轴心”曾是欧洲大国协调的典范和区域一体化的主要驱动力。然而，近年来，面对欧洲格局的纷繁变化尤其是乌克兰局势的冲击，两国关系不睦已是有目共睹。对此，有评论称，法德之间的裂痕正暴露无遗，两国争夺欧盟主导地位的矛盾已公开化。

The contest for supremacy between France and Germany is concentrated in many aspects, one of which is the difference in their defense paths. France has long desired to guide European countries to establish defense autonomy and thereby reinforce strategic autonomy, instead of solely depending on NATO. Germany argues that Europe's promotion of common defense is only a complement rather than a replacement to the role of NATO. Mutual bickering has taken precedence over mutual accommodation as the prevailing trend of the Franco-German Axis. This is undoubtedly rooted in the differences in their thinking logic and national interest demands, but there are also deeper internal and external factors at play.

法德“主导权”之争集中表现在很多领域，防务问题的“路线差异”就是其中之一。长期以来，法国希望带领欧盟各国实现防务自主进而支撑“战略自主”，而非一味依赖北约。德国则主张，欧洲推进共同防务只是对北约作用的“补充”、而非“平替”。相互争吵取代彼此磨合，成为当前“法德轴心”的“主轴”，固然源自思维逻辑和国家利益诉求之别，但更有深层次的内外原因。

Internally, the political and economic quagmires have led to a decidedly inward-looking and conservative turn in policies of the two countries, undermining both sides' willingness to collaborate on foreign policy. The leaders of both countries have to strengthen the emphasis on "national interest first" in foreign policy and place their individual national interests above their shared interests.

在内部，政治与经济困境导致法德政策明显内向化和保守化，削弱了双方对外政策协作的意愿。两国领导人不得不强化“本国利益优先”的对外政策基调，将本国利益更多凌驾于两国共同利益之上。

Externally, the assignment of roles between both parties needs to be modified. The traditional basic model for the effective operation of the EU is that France directs the course of high-level politics such as diplomatic and military spheres, while Germany dominates the economic and trade foundations. However, Germany is increasingly seeking to translate its economic power into political and even military influences. Against the backdrop of regional turmoil, Germany has embarked on a security policy shift marked by accelerated militarization, having set up a special fund of 100 billion euros (USD 109 billion) for the German military (Bundeswehr) and seeking to build the strongest conventional armed forces in Europe. In the context of divergent strategic cultures and security concerns between France and Germany, the security issue is emerging as the precipitating factor for fracturing dynamics between the two countries.

在外部，双方的分工模式有待调适。欧盟有效运转的传统基本模式是：法国引领外交和军事等“高位政治”方向，德国则执经济与贸易基础之“牛耳”。然而，德国正日趋争取将经济实力转化为政治乃至军事影响力。在地区冲突刺激下，德国开启以加速军事化为标志的安全政策转向，为联邦国防军设立1000亿欧元专项基金，并试图打造欧洲最强常规武装。在法德战略文化和安全关切并不一致的情况下，安全议题正在成为两国“离心”的导火索。

Restoration imperative for faltering EU engine

欧盟“引擎”亟待修复

Driven by the interaction of internal and external factors, France and Germany's willingness and ability to seek reciprocal concessions are declining, and there are growing concerns about the potential breakdown of their relationship. However, the historical trajectory of EU integration demonstrates that this process can only progress continuously if both France and Germany truly serve as two engines. Given the multitude of internal and external challenges facing Europe at present, the significance of deepening cooperation between the two countries becomes even more pronounced.

在内外因素共同作用下，法德双方寻求相互妥协的意愿和能力都在下降，外界甚至担忧法德关系可能走向破裂。然而，欧洲联合的历史进程表明，只有法德切实充当“双引擎”，一体化进程才能不断推进。在欧洲面临一系列内外挑战的当下，法德深化合作意义重大。

France and Germany are in dire need of rectifying their strategic misalignment in Europe since the outburst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe almost completely endorses the US when dealing with this conflict and related issues, thus being bound by the latter and stuck in a dilemma. On the part of the US, it has frequently undermined the strength of its European allies by fragmentation approaches. While many European countries are formal member states of the NATO and are compelled to follow the US, there is still room for them to express their own preferences and positions.

法德急需纠正俄乌冲突以来欧洲的战略“迷航”。在对待俄乌冲突及与之相关的问题时，欧洲几乎全盘为美国“背书”，以致被美国绑定、进退维谷。美国则频频分化弱化其欧洲盟国。尽管欧洲国家多为北约正式成员、追随美国有不得已之处，但仍不乏体现自身偏好和立场的空间。

France and Germany still need to address their deviations in contrasted influences and stances on main issues in Europe. It is inconducive to building a more independent and secure Europe by directing the overall focus of the EU to remilitarization and plunging all regional countries into the vortex of great power competition. Only when both states decrease mutual contentions and increase mutual collaborations can the European integration process navigate constant twists and turns and move forward.

法德尚需纠正欧洲影响力对比及主要议题的“偏离”。将欧盟整体聚焦点拖向“再军事化”，令各国深陷“大国竞争”旋涡，不利于建设一个更独立、更安全的欧洲。法德之间少一些“互相计较”、多一些“互为犄角”，才有可能进一步推进波折不断的欧洲一体化进程。