孙文竹
By Sun Wenzhu
据报道，美国政府官员日前透露，美国正在与英国和澳大利亚磋商，寻求邀请日本在“奥库斯”框架下开展安全技术合作。此前，澳副总理兼国防部长马尔斯便表示，期待日本在该框架下参与人工智能、高超音速等技术的开发，并共同探索将其应用于军事领域。
According to reports, US government officials recently revealed that the country is currently negotiating with the UK and Australia, looking forward to extending an invitation to Japan for security technology cooperation under the AUKUS framework. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles had previously expressed his expectation for Japan's participation in developing artificial intelligence, hypersonic and other technologies under the framework, and joint exploration of their applications in the military field.
“奥库斯”谋求扩员的真实目的，是妄图打造覆盖印度洋及太平洋地区的军事安全集团。实际上，早在该框架建立之初，美英澳便曾分别在非公开场合询问日本是否有意参与。
The expansion of the AUKUS targets building a military security bloc covering the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean regions. In fact, as early as the establishment of the framework, the US, the UK and Australia had separately sought Japan's inclination to be part of the alliance in private settings.
日本对于“奥库斯”的“欲迎还拒”态度颇值得玩味：一方面，日本政府表态称从未收到“奥库斯”的正式邀请，强调日本坚持“非核国家”立场，与“奥库斯”的核潜艇计划保持距离；另一方面，以日本前首相麻生太郎为代表的右翼人士却反复要求“‘奥库斯’扩员吸纳日本”，以“共同遏制中国”。
Japan's ambivalent attitude towards the AUKUS is quite intriguing. On the one hand, the Japanese government stated that it has never received an official invitation to the AUKUS, emphasizing its commitment to non-nuclear status and distancing from the AUKUS nuclear submarine program. On the other hand, the domestic right-wingers represented by former Prime Minister Taro Aso have repeatedly requested to incorporate Japan into the AUKUS for joint containment toward China.
2023年，日本政府正式批准同英、澳分别缔结的《互惠准入协定》，已同两国搭建起仅次于美日同盟的“准同盟”关系。日官员亦表示，一旦未来澳核潜艇需停靠日本，将参照美国先例为之提供后勤支持。可以说，日本是否加入“奥库斯”只是一个名义问题。
In 2023, Tokyo officially ratified the conclusion of the Reciprocal Access Agreements with the UK and Australia, hence establishing a quasi-alliance relationship only inferior to the US-Japan alliance with these two countries. Japanese officials also indicated to provide logistical support in line with the US precedents for Australian nuclear submarines docking in Japan when required in the future. It can be said that whether Japan joins the AUKUS framework is only a matter of name.
“奥库斯”与日本渐行渐近，是新形势下二者战略上相互需要的结果。这一动向带有强烈的“新冷战”色彩，将给亚太地区带来更大的动荡分裂风险，应当引起国际社会的警惕与防范。
Japan's increasing proximity to the AUKUS is the result of their mutual strategic needs under the new situation. Such a move carries with distinct undertones of a “new Cold War”, posing greater risks of instability and disintegration to the Asia-Pacific region. This warrants the vigilance and precaution of the international community.
日本靠拢“奥库斯”，服务于其国家安全战略与防务政策的根本性调整，意图借此突破和平宪法与“专守防卫”原则，成为“能攻能守”的真正军事大国，这将给地区安全带来极大的不确定性。
Japan's tendency towards the AUKUS caters to its fundamental adjustment of its national security strategies and defense policies, to break the limit of the pacifist constitution "exclusively defense-oriented" principle and ascend into a true military power that excels in offense and defense, which will entail great uncertainty to regional security.
2022年12月，日本政府通过修订的“安保三文件”，提出“从根本上强化防卫能力”，既要构建能够“先发制人”的进攻性军事能力，也要在巩固美日同盟的同时，强化与美国盟友间的横向联系，借此提升自身影响力。
In December 2023, Tokyo adopted the revised three security documents saying to fundamentally strengthen the defense capability of the country, in a bid to not only build preemptive offensive military capabilities but also reinforce ties with the US allies horizontally while solidifying its alliance with the US, thereby further elevating its influence.
“奥库斯”与日本相互接近，也有分摊研发成本、更加高效地将关键技术转化为军事能力的考虑。军事科技创新成本高、周期长、风险大，且单一国家的军备市场往往较为有限，难以形成“利润积累—研发创新”的正循环。近年来，日本防务开支连续大幅增长，大力实施“军费倍增计划”，扩员对“奥库斯”的潜在好处显而易见，日方亦可从合作中取得收益。 “奥库斯”寻求扩员的举动，暴露出美国借助盟友“小圈子”推动所谓“印太战略”、维系自身霸权的一贯伎俩。
The reciprocal proximity between the AUKUS and Japan also stems from the considerations of sharing research and development costs and converting key technologies into military capabilities more effectively. Due to the high costs, long cycles and high risks of military science, technology and innovations, and the capability restraints in the armaments market of a single country, it is difficult to form a positive cycle of "profit accumulation - research and development". Japan has seen successive substantial growth in defense expenditure and vigorous promotion of the plan to double its defense budget. The potential benefits of expansion are evident for the AUKUS, and Japan can also reap gains from the collaboration. The expansion pursuit of the AUKUS exposes the consistent tactic of the US to promote its so-called “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and maintain its hegemony by relying on the small cliques formed by its allies.
近年来，美国在“印太”地区倚靠“奥库斯”、美日印澳“四方安全对话”、“五眼联盟”等“小多边”机制，将盟友伙伴作为“力量倍增器”，通过在不同领域“灵活合作”实现“整队拉齐”，从而弥补自身实力相对衰落带来的不足。“奥库斯”发轫于澳大利亚的核潜艇采购项目，但近期该项目因澳自身国防资金不足及国内反对意见而遇阻，美英澳三国因而寻求向外突破，期望借机将日本、韩国、新西兰乃至加拿大、印度拉入“朋友圈”，以壮“声势”。这种明显带有阵营化倾向与零和博弈思维的做法，将会进一步加剧地缘政治对抗，破坏地区和平稳定。
In recent years, leaning on the AUKUS, the QUAD organization, the Five Eyes Alliance and other small-multilateral mechanisms in the “Indo-Pacific” region, the US has perceived its allies and partners as "amplifiers of power", achieving overall alignment through flexible collaboration in various domains, thus offsetting the deficiencies resulting from its relative decline in strength. Originated from a nuclear submarine procurement project from Australia, the AUKUS has recently met resistance due to the defense underfunding and domestic opposition in the country, the US, the UK and Australia thus have sought to break through externally, hoping to draw Japan, the ROK, New Zealand and even Canada and India in to magnify their presence. This approach, which clearly exhibits a bloc tendency and zero-sum game mindset, will further exacerbate geopolitical confrontation and undermine regional peace and stability.
（作者单位：中国国际问题研究院）
(The author is from China Institute of International Studies)
