By Shi Wen

石文

Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron publicly disclosed the construction trend of France's new generation of nuclear arsenal and flaunted the country's nuclear strength. This is another instance of the attention-grabbing move by the head of state of France that has been quite in the spotlight in recent times. As the only country possessing nuclear weapons in the EU, France is flexing its "nuclear muscles" in the context of rising global arms races and protracted warfare in Eastern Europe, which has provoked numerous speculations from the international community.

近日，法国总统马克龙向外界公开新一代核武库建设动向，并高调展示法国核武实力。这是近段时间颇为“抢镜”的法国元首进行的又一波“博眼球”操作。作为欧盟内唯一拥有核武器的国家，法国在全球军备态势上扬、东欧战火延宕的背景下秀“核肌肉”，引发外界诸多猜测。

Macron announced that France will complete the modernization and renewal of its nuclear arsenal and sustain a nuclear warhead stockpile that is quantitatively stable, operationally reliable, and technologically advanced by 2025. The country will also conclude the deployment of the new generation of strategic nuclear submarines and plans to build four new-type strategic nuclear submarines by 2035. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that the country reserves the right to prioritize the employment of nuclear weapons for limited strikes.

马克龙宣布，2025年前，法国将完成核武库现代化更新，保持核弹头“数量稳定、效果可靠、技术领先”。2035年前，法国将完成新一代战略核潜艇列装部署，计划建造4艘新型战略核潜艇。法国国防部长勒科尔尼表示，法国保留优先使用核武器进行有限打击的权利。

Data shows that France currently holds 290 nuclear warheads, all of which have designated carriers. Four active Le Triomphant class strategic nuclear submarines serve as the prime representation of its sea-based nuclear strike forces, and three of them are currently capable of carrying M51.2 ballistic missiles with upgraded launch systems. The M51.3 ballistic missiles will complete relevant tests this year and be installed on the Le Triomphant class submarines by 2028. New-type strike weapons will be put into service in tandem with the commissioning of the new generation of strategic nuclear submarines. The active aircraft carriers of France can be equipped with nuclear-capable carrier-based aircraft, and the new generation of carriers is set to join the fleet in 2037. According to the design scheme, the new carriers will also be outfitted with the same capability.

数据显示，目前法国拥有290枚核弹头，所有核弹头均有明确载具。现役4艘凯旋级战略核潜艇是海基核打击力量的“门面”，目前，有3艘已完成武器发射系统升级改造，具备搭载M51.2洲际弹道导弹的能力。今年，M51.3洲际弹道导弹将完成试验，并在2028年前搭载于凯旋级潜艇。新一代战略核潜艇列装后，将同步启用新型打击武器。法军现役航母可搭载能携带核弹的舰载机，新一代航母将于2037年入列。按照设计方案，新航母将同样具备该能力。

The French air nuclear strike forces are composed of two air force squadrons and a naval aviation fighter bomber unit fulfilling nuclear strike missions with Rafale jets. The fighters' related payloads are undergoing iterative upgrades, among which the ASMP-A air-launched cruise missiles have been upgraded, and the new generation of ASN4G hypersonic missiles has entered the test phase. The French Air Force plans to equip the above missiles in the sixth-generation aircraft project Future Combat Air System (FCAS) to accomplish the modernization and upgrade of the air-based nuclear platforms.

法国空中核打击力量包括空军两支飞行中队和海军航空兵战斗轰炸机部队，通过“阵风”战斗机遂行核打击任务。该战斗机的相关载荷正在进行迭代升级，其中，ASMP-A空射型巡航导弹已完成升级，新一代高超音速导弹ASN4G已进入测试阶段。法国空军计划在第六代机项目“未来空中作战系统”中搭载上述导弹，实现空基核平台现代化升级。

In terms of the capital chain, France invested EUR 5.6 billion (about USD 6.06 billion) for nuclear forces upgrade in 2023, while the budget for this field in 2024 is edging towards EUR 6 billion, and Macron has stated to continue to increase the investment in 2025.

资金链方面，2023年，法国投入56亿欧元（约合60.6亿美元）用于核力量升级，2024年该领域预算接近60亿欧元，马克龙已表态2025年将继续加大投入。

In the past two years, due to influences of local conflicts in Europe, European countries have shown an inclination to align with NATO, while the latter has also demonstrated its so-called strength to protect Europe through actions such as the "Steadfast Noon" nuclear exercise. The recent construction of NATO's largest military base in Europe by Romania and the embrace of NATO military deployment by Poland and the Baltic coastal countries have dampened the European defense autonomy concept to some extent.

近两年，受欧洲局部冲突影响，欧洲国家出现贴近北约的倾向，北约也通过“坚定正午”核演习等举动展现所谓“护欧”实力。近期，罗马尼亚筹建北约驻欧洲最大军事基地、波兰与波罗的海沿岸国“欢迎”北约军队进驻等，都在一定程度上弱化了欧洲防务自主理念。

Being the only country in the EU possessing nuclear weapons and also the advocate of European defense autonomy, France's overt demonstration of nuclear strength targets conveys the notion of nuclear-extended deterrence to other European countries and denotes its nuclear protection major power status. In addition, since the Olaf Scholz administration came to power, Germany has slavishly followed the US and seen consistent record-breaking weaponry construction and a tendency to surpass France in the military budget allocation and evolving military strength. Macron's unveiling of the nuclear trump card this time aims at proclaiming the country's leadership in Europe.

法国是欧盟内唯一拥有核武器的国家，也是欧洲防务自主的倡导者，其向外界展示核实力，意在向欧洲其他国家传递“核延伸威慑”信号，体现法国“核保护伞”的大国地位。另外，德国朔尔茨政府执政后，随美起舞亦步亦趋，武器装备建设连创纪录，军费投入规模和军力动向有“碾压”法国之势。此次马克龙抛出“核底牌”，意在彰显本国在欧洲的领导地位。

Some foreign media remarked that Macron's direct endorsement of the nuclear arsenal is also relevant to economic factors. Previously, a submarine order contract worth tens of billions of US dollars between France and Australia was spoiled by the US and the UK with huge economic losses as a consequence. The UK and Australia recently re-collaborated to sign a contract worth up to GBP 2.4 billion (about USD 3.03 billion) for the construction of nuclear reactor facilities, and France hopes to retake its standing through the nuclear arsenal upgrade. Moreover, as France is bidding for a carrier aircraft project of India with its Rafale jets, it emphasizes the tactical nuclear attack performance of the fighters in a bid to promote their export.

有外媒称，马克龙亲自为核武“背书”，也有经济方面的因素。此前，法国和澳大利亚签订的数百亿美元潜艇订单，被美英两国搅黄，经济损失较大。近期英澳再度联手，签署高达24亿英镑（约合30.3亿美元）的核反应堆设施建设合同，法国希望通过核武升级找回面子。另外，法国“阵风”舰载机正在竞标印度舰载机项目，法国强调其战术核攻击性能，意在推动战斗机出口。

Besides, for some time, in the game with major powers outside the region, France is witnessing a waning of its influence over Africa, one of its traditional spheres of influence, and has been utterly humiliated by being consistently excluded in the enterprise investment and compelled to withdraw troops in the region. France frequently demonstrates its determination for overseas military deployment and its strategic strike capabilities in the superpower games in Europe, a manifestation of the overflow of its dissatisfactions in the diplomatic field into the defense realm. It should be pointed out that should France expand the nuclear weapon deployment scale or deploy nuclear strike platforms in sensitive maritime and airspace domains, it could potentially lead to an escalation of the global nuclear posture.

此外，一段时期以来，在与域外大国博弈中，法国正在失去对其传统势力范围非洲的影响力，投资企业屡遭排挤、军队被迫撤离，可谓颜面尽失。法国在欧洲域内大国博弈中，频频展示海外用兵决心和战略打击能力，是将外交领域不满情绪向防务领域外溢的体现。需要指出的是，法国如若扩大核武部署规模，或派遣核打击平台出没在敏感海空域，可能导致全球核态势升级。