By Li Hai

李海

The US Department of Defense announced on April 25 that the US will withdraw most of its troops from Niger. More than 1,000 US troops are deployed in Niger at present. According to the Associated Press, the US is seeking to reach an agreement with the Nigerian government in a view to maintain a certain military presence in the country.

美国国防部4月25日宣布，美国将从尼日尔撤出大部分驻军。目前，美国在尼日尔驻军逾千人。据美联社报道，美国正寻求与尼日尔政府达成协议，以期在当地保有一定规模驻军。

After the 9/11 attacks, the foremost concern of the US on military layout in Africa has been combating terrorist forces. In the wake of the turmoil in West Asia and North Africa in 2011, terrorists increasingly relocated and expanded to the Sahel region, which resulted in enlarged anti-terrorist inputs from the US and Europe in the region.

“9·11”事件后，美国在非洲军事布势的首要考量就是打击恐怖势力。2011年西亚北非局势动荡后，恐怖分子纷纷向萨赫勒地区转移扩散。美欧逐渐加大对该地区的反恐投入。

Niger has been a key security partner of the US in the Sahel region in recent years. In 2015, the US signed a military cooperation agreement with Niger, allocating over 100 million USD to build Agadez, a central city of Niger, into the US military's largest drone base in West Africa in the name of counter-terrorism. The number of the US military personnel in Niger accounts for about one-fifth of its total military presence in Africa.

近年来，尼日尔一直是美国在萨赫勒地区重要安全合作伙伴。2015年，美国与尼日尔签署军事合作协议，以反恐名义耗资1亿多美元，在尼中部城市阿加德兹修建美军在西非最大无人机基地。美国在尼军事人员数量约占其在整个非洲驻军的1/5。

In July 2023, a sudden coup occurred in Niger, and the newly established junta and the local population in the country believed that the regional counter-terrorist strategy led by the US and Europe was not effective, and had the potential risk to cherish a snake in their bosom. France, known as an African gendarmerie, first received a rigid order to depart and evacuated all its 1500 troops more or less in Niger in December 2023. To avoid being affected by this, the US intentionally distanced itself from France and even exploited the situation to seize control of France's traditional spheres of influence by repeatedly sending high-level delegations for lobbying in Niger.

2023年7月，尼日尔突发政变，新上台的军政府及该国民众认为，美欧主导的地区反恐战略收效不彰，而且有“养痈遗患”“养寇自重”之嫌。素有“非洲宪兵”之称的法国，首先收到硬性“逐客令”，于2023年12月撤离全部在尼驻军约1500人。为避免被殃及，美国有意与法国拉开距离，甚至“趁火打劫”，借机挤占法国传统势力范围，多次派高级代表团赴尼游说。

However, in mid-March, immediately after the departure of the US delegation that visited Niger to discuss the normalization of their bilateral relations, the Nigerian junta issued a statement strongly condemning the US delegation's arrogant and patronizing attitude, accusing the US of arbitrary interference in its internal affairs, and formally announcing cancellation of its military cooperation agreement with the US. Likewise, Chad in the same region has also demanded the withdrawal of US troops recently. The chief of staff of the Chadian Air Force has sent a letter to the US military attaché in Chad questioning the justification for the US military deployment and urging the expeditious evacuation of more than 100 US special forces stationed at the French military base in N'Djamena.

然而，3月中旬，赴尼商讨美尼关系正常化的美国代表团刚离开，尼军政府即发表声明，强烈谴责美国代表团“傲慢”和“居高临下”，肆意干涉尼内政，并正式宣布废除与美国签署的军事合作协议。无独有偶，该地区国家乍得也于近日要求美军撤出。乍得空军参谋长向美国驻乍得武官致信，质疑美驻军的合理性，要求美国尽快撤离其驻恩贾梅纳法国军事基地的100余名特种部队人员。

With the estrangement of former partners, the US may be compelled to remove all its forces from the Sahel region. Some critics have argued that the US may accelerate to shift the focus of its military layout in Africa towards the coastal areas of West Africa. The reason lies in that the US officials believe that the elevated influence of Russia and other countries in Africa poses greater threats to the US than terrorist organizations, and that the focus of the US military strategy in Africa should gradually transition from counter-terrorism to great power gaming. To expedite this strategic shift, the Biden administration has proposed the US Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability 10-Year Plan for Coastal West Africa.

随着昔日伙伴纷纷与美国分道扬镳，美军或将被迫全面撤出萨赫勒地区。有评论认为，美军在非洲的军事布局重点，可能加速向西非沿海地区转移。这是因为，美官方认为，俄罗斯等国在非影响力提升，对美国利益的威胁已超过恐怖组织，美对非洲军事战略的重心需逐步从反恐转向大国博弈。拜登政府为加快战略转向步伐，已提出面向西非沿海地区的“十年预防冲突和促进稳定战略”。

In January 2024, the US military started engagement with countries in West Africa including Cote d'Ivoire, Benin and Ghana to negotiate on undertaking the drone base projects. In March, following Niger's announcement to rescind its military cooperation agreement with the US, the US Department of State sent diplomatic notes to the governments of 15 countries in West Africa, pledging that its military assistance to the Sahel region will be shifted to the coastal areas of West Africa to help the regional countries enhance their counter-terrorism capabilities. It can be seen that despite the reluctance in making the decision, the US departure from Niger aligns with the general direction of its strategic adjustment in Africa to some extent, and the US still has a card up its sleeve.

今年1月，美军方开始与科特迪瓦、贝宁、加纳等西非国家就承接美无人机基地事宜进行接触和协商。3月，尼日尔刚宣布废除与美军事合作协议，美国务院就向西非地区15国政府发出外交照会，承诺将把对萨赫勒地区的军事援助转移至西非沿海，以帮助该地区国家提升反恐能力。可见，美军撤离尼日尔虽是无奈之举，在某种程度上也契合了美在非战略调整的大方向，尚有下“后手棋”的余地。

Nonetheless, this will also severely undermine the US’ capabilities to conduct military operations in the heartland of the African continent, particularly its intelligence monitoring activities in North and West Africa. Meanwhile, this also exposes that as the US is deeply distracted by the great power competition strategy and hot issues like Russia-Ukraine conflict, Palestinian-Israeli conflict and even divergences in the Indo-Pacific region, it can only allocate very limited military resources for Africa.

不过，这也将使美国在非洲大陆腹地开展军事行动的能力遭到重创，特别是其在北非和西非地区的情报监测活动将受到很大限制。这同时也暴露出美军深受“大国竞争”战略和俄乌、巴以乃至印太地区热点问题牵制，能留给非洲的机动军事资源已所剩不多。

More importantly, the US has adjusted its military deployment in Africa with great power competition as the focal point and continues to cloak its actions under the pretext of counter-terrorism, while practically using military assistance to coerce African countries into taking sides in the rivalry between major powers. Such an approach will only elicit a backlash, triggering new resentment in the stationed countries and inevitably repeating its mistakes in Niger in the end.

更重要的是，美国以“大国竞争”为纲调整在非军事部署，继续打着“反恐”旗号，实则以军事援助诱压非洲国家在大国之间“选边站队”。这种做法只会适得其反，引发新的“驻在国”反感，最终难免重蹈在尼日尔的覆辙。