By Niu Hao and Cheng Baihua

牛昊、程柏华

Recently, regardless of the strong opposition of the international community, the Israeli forces have escalated military operations against Rafah, a city in southern Gaza Strip. This act has further exacerbated the already dire situation, disrupted the distribution of humanitarian aid, and caused more people to be displaced and trapped in misery. Although all sides have urged Israel to immediately cease its military operations in Rafah, it ignores these voices and recklessly expands related military operations.

日前，以色列军队不顾国际社会的强烈反对，不断升级针对加沙地带南部城市拉法的军事行动，进一步恶化了业已严峻的形势，扰乱了人道主义援助的分配，导致更多人流离失所、陷入苦难。虽然各方纷纷敦促以色列立即停止在拉法的军事行动，但是其却依然选择一意孤行，肆意扩大有关军事行动。

According to Israel, its attacks on Rafah are intended to eliminate Hamas. The Rafah crossing, located on the border between Gaza and Egypt, is Palestine's only border crossing that leads directly to the outside world without passing through Israel. It also serves as the main passage for humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip. From Israel's perspective, the attacks on Rafah help seize Hamas' last key stronghold to achieve all of the three primary objectives of the military operations: rescuing Israeli detainees, eliminating Hamas, and ensuring that the Gaza Strip is no longer a threat to Israel. The Israeli government seeks to respond to domestic doubts and avoid political risks through the attacks on Rafah. A member of Israel's far-right political parties warned that his party would possibly overthrow the current government if Benjamin Netanyahu was bold enough to call off the attacks on Rafah. At the same time, Israeli people repeatedly held protests in Tel Aviv and other cities, demanding an agreement being reached between Israel and Hamas on the release of detainees, and calling for the resignation of the current government. Facing all these doubts, the Israeli government is in urgent need of a military victory to prove its determination and ability to achieve all the three objectives, thereby consolidating its ruling foundation.

以色列表示，进攻拉法是为了“彻底消灭”哈马斯。拉法口岸位于加沙与埃及交界处，是巴勒斯坦唯一不用经过以色列而直接通往外部的口岸，也是人道主义援助物资进入加沙地带的主要通道。在以色列看来，进攻拉法有助于拿下哈马斯的最后一个关键据点，以实现其军事行动三大目标，即解救被扣押以方人员、消灭哈马斯、确保加沙地带不再对以色列构成威胁。进攻拉法，以色列政府有回应国内质疑、规避政治风险的意图。以色列极右翼政党人士日前警告，如果内塔尼亚胡敢取消对拉法的进攻，该党将推翻政府。同时，以色列民众多次在特拉维夫等城市举行抗议活动，要求以色列立即与哈马斯就释放被扣押人员达成协议，并呼吁现任政府下台。面对各种各样的质疑，以色列政府急需一场军事上的胜利，证明其仍然拥有实现三大目标的决心与能力，进而稳固执政基础。

Israel's image as a military power is under continuous pressure which drives the aggressive attacks on Rafah. Since the establishment of the State of Israel, it has set up the image of an invincible power through consecutive victories in five Middle East wars. However, at the beginning of the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian- conflict, Hamas launched all-round attacks on Israel by sea, land and air, which imposed huge losses on Israel. Accordingly, the Israeli forces are eager to attack Rafah to restore its external image as a military power and rebuild its military advantage.

以色列军事强国形象持续承压，促使其强势进攻拉法。建国后，以色列凭借五次中东战争的胜利，塑造起“战无不胜”的强国形象。然而，本轮巴以冲突爆发之初，哈马斯对以色列境内进行海陆空全方位攻击，令以色列遭受巨大损失。因此，以军急于进攻拉法，也有补救外在强国形象、重塑军事优势的考量。

Despite the outside opposition, Israel intransigently clings to its large-scale Rafah attack plan. In implementing the plan, however, it is still constrained by multiple factors, not least the strength of support provided by the US – Israel's main backer.

面对外界的反对之声，尽管以色列态度强硬，坚持不改变大规模进攻拉法的计划，但要拿下拉法仍受制于多重因素，特别是其主要后盾美国的支持力度。

For Israel, winning the attacks on Rafah is impeded by insurmountable military and economic difficulties. Affected by the war on the front line, Israel's economic growth continues to slow down, and its fiscal deficit keeps rising. According to data released by Israel's Ministry of Finance, its fiscal deficit has expanded to 7% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in April 2024, far higher than in previous years. In addition, Israel's military production capacity is unable to meet the increasing demand for firepower on the front line effectively.

以色列要取得进攻拉法的胜利，在军事、经济上面临极大困难。受前线战事影响，以色列经济增速持续放缓，财政赤字不断增大。据以色列财政部公布的数据，2024年4月以色列财政赤字膨胀至国内生产总值的7%，远超历年水平。此外，以色列的军工生产能力，难以有效满足愈加庞大的前线火力需求。

The US is hesitant to support Israel due to their divergence on the Rafah issue. At present, the US government is under enormous public pressure, as evidenced by the protests held in many US universities in support of Palestine and against the US government's support for Israel. When the flames of war spreading to Rafah in early May further intensified the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, Joe Biden announced the suspension of the delivery of a batch of heavy bombs to Israel for the purpose of alleviating the pressure of public opinion at home and abroad. Nevertheless, the administration informed US Congress through an informal channel on May 14 that it would deliver additional arms totaling more than one billion US dollars to Israel. Mixed messages from the US have blurred the prospect of Israel's attacks on Rafah.

美国在拉法问题上与以色列存在分歧，对其支持犹疑不决。目前，美国政府承受着巨大的民意压力，美国多所大学举行支持巴勒斯坦、反对美国政府支持以色列的抗议活动。当5月初战火“烧”至拉法，加沙地带人道主义危机进一步加剧后，拜登为缓解国内外舆论压力，宣布将暂缓向以色列输送一批重型炸弹。不过，美国政府又于5月14日以非正式方式告知国会，将向以色列再输送总额超过10亿美元的武器。美国传递出的混乱信息，令以色列进攻拉法的前景更不明朗。

Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have been incurring more and more criticism for the country. On May 16, the United Nations (UN) International Court of Justice held a two-day hearing in The Hague, Netherlands, on South Africa's request to stop Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip. On the 33rd Ordinary Session of the Council of the League of Arab States at the Summit Level just concluded, calls were issued for a just and comprehensive peace in the region based on the two-state solution. The European Union (EU) has also continuously urged Israel to immediately cease military operations in Rafah. Amid the strong opposition of the international community, there is a big question mark about Israel's achievements through its obstinate attacks on Rafah.

以色列在加沙地带的军事行动，正遭受越来越多的批评。5月16日，就南非请求制止以色列在加沙地带军事行动的请求，联合国国际法院在荷兰海牙举行了为期两天的听证会。刚闭幕的第33届阿拉伯国家联盟首脑理事会会议，呼吁在“两国方案”基础上实现地区公正、全面的和平。欧盟也不断敦促以色列立即停止在拉法的军事行动。在国际社会的强烈反对声中，以色列执意进攻拉法到底能取得多大成效，还要打一个大大的问号。