By Xiang Haoyu

项昊宇

Recently, several European countries have taken turns sending vessels and aircraft to carry out joint training with the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF), and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will attend the NATO Summit this month for the third consecutive year. Clearly, Japan, agitated by the US, is colluding with NATO even more deeply and actively trying to expand the organization's clout to the Asia Pacific, which will bring profound negative impacts on the region's strategic security.

近来，欧洲多国相继向日本周边派出舰机，与日本海上自卫队开展联合训练。此外，日本首相岸田文雄本月将连续第三年出席北约峰会。这些事实表明，在美国的鼓动下，日本不断加深与北约的勾连，积极扮演“北约亚太化”的推手，将给亚太战略安全环境带来深刻负面影响。

Upgraded security cooperation

安全合作不断升级

Japan became one of NATO's nine global partners as early as 2008. In 2013, the two sides signed their first joint political declaration, vowing to collaborate in such areas as anti-piracy, disaster relief, and anti-terrorism. The next year, they issued the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme (IPCP), which listed nine priority areas for cooperation, including cyber defense, maritime security, arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament, and defense science and technology. Cooperation projects were launched afterwards based on this document.

早在2008年，日本便成为北约9个“全球伙伴”之一。2013年，日本首次与北约签署共同政治宣言，双方同意围绕打击海盗、救灾、反恐等方面开展合作。次年，双方共同发表《个别伙伴合作计划》（IPCP），提出包括网络防御、海洋安全、军备军控、防卫技术等9大优先合作领域，并基于该文件在后续开展了一系列具体合作。

Since the Ukraine crisis broke out, Japan has taken the opportunity to strengthen its strategic bond with the Western bloc through ever more frequent interactions with NATO. After Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended the NATO Summit for the first time in June 2022, he was present at the meeting again last July, at which the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) between NATO and Japan for 2023-2026 was signed. The document listed 16 areas of cooperation including cyber defense and space security guarantee, and made clear that the JMSDF will deeply engage in NATO's exercises and joint actions, marking a leap forward in their security cooperation.

乌克兰危机爆发以来，日本借机强化与西方阵营的战略捆绑，同北约的互动更加频密。2022年6月，岸田文雄作为日本首相首次参加北约峰会。去年7月，再度出席北约峰会的岸田文雄，与北约签署《个别针对性伙伴关系计划：2023-2026》（ITPP），该合作文件提及网络防卫应对、太空安全保障等16个领域的合作，还明确自卫队将深度参加北约演习和联合行动，标志着日本与北约的安全合作大幅升级。

Alignment between the two sides' strategic ambitions

战略野心相互契合

The closer interactions between Japan and NATO are driven by their respective strategic ambitions. NATO wishes to reach out to the Asia Pacific while Japan dreams of becoming a major country. NATO, which is in great tension with Russia, urgently needs external forces to form a stronger front against Moscow. To serve its strategic needs for "global transformation", it even attempts to set up its first Asia-Pacific liaison office in Tokyo in hopes of engaging deeper in the Indo-Pacific affairs with Japan as a springboard.

在日本和北约走近的过程中，北约“亚太化”与日本“大国化”互为驱动，双方的战略野心相互契合。就北约而言，同俄罗斯矛盾激化后，亟需拉拢外部势力壮大与俄对抗的声势。为了服务“全球转型”战略需要，北约还试图在东京建立首个亚太地区联络处，谋求以日本为跳板，深度介入“印太”事务。

Japan, on the other hand, sees the Ukraine crisis as a rare opportunity to break free from the restrictions imposed by the post-WWII order and expand its clout as a "major country" worldwide. Taking advantage of the Ukraine crisis, Japan's right-wing conservative forces are strongly hyping external threats and calling for revising the pacifist constitution and strengthening military buildup. Japanese politicians have also come up with the fallacy that "Ukraine today maybe East Asia tomorrow", advocating that "security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region is inseparable". Leveraging its coordinated actions with NATO on the Ukraine issue, the Japanese government has kept breaking restrictions on its export of weapons and equipment. The further relaxation of the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology announced by the Kishida administration last December opened the gate for exporting advanced destructive weapons and equipment.

日本则将乌克兰危机视为其彻底挣脱战后束缚、向全球拓展“大国影响”的难得机会。日本国内右翼保守势力借乌克兰危机大肆渲染外部威胁，鼓噪修宪加强军备。日本政客还炮制出“今天的乌克兰可能成为明天的东亚”谬论，大肆宣扬“欧洲安全与印太安全不可分割”。借助同北约在乌克兰问题上的协调行动，日本政府不断推动武器装备输出方面的突破。去年12月，岸田政府进一步放宽《防卫装备转移三原则》，为出口杀伤性先进武器装备打开了方便之门。

Overspill effects not to be underestimated

外溢影响不容小觑

Although there are objective factors that keep Japan from becoming an official NATO member in the short term, it is strengthening its cooperation with NATO in both traditional and non-traditional security domains against the background of the US intensifying its alliance system and pushing the so-called "major-country competition". The two sides are trying to form a new type of security relationship different from the traditional military alliance, whose overspill effects must not be underestimated.

受到一些客观条件的制约，短期内日本尚难成为北约正式成员，但在美国强化同盟体系、推动所谓“大国竞争”的背景下，日本与北约在传统安全以及非传统安全领域的合作日益密切，双方正尝试构建一种不同于传统军事同盟关系的新型安全关系，其产生的外溢影响不容小觑。

For one thing, NATO's outreach to the Asia Pacific will aggravate international polarization. After the end of the Cold War, NATO has to justify its existence by constantly stirring up disputes and creating security risks. Likewise, its current outreach efforts towards the Asia Pacific, with the US being the master hand behind and Japan as an accomplice, must be backed up by hyping "external threats" and concocting such narratives as "democracy vs. authoritarianism" and other bloc confrontation theories. Such a trend is sure to intensify the turmoil and fragmentation of the international community.

首先，“北约亚太化”将加剧国际社会阵营化趋势。冷战后北约要维系存在，就必须通过不断挑起争端、制造安全风险，来为其存续制造正当合理性。当前“美主日从”推动“北约亚太化”的发展，同样必须通过渲染“外部威胁”，炮制“民主对抗威权”等阵营对抗的叙事来实现这一目标，这势必加剧国际社会的震荡及割裂程度。

For another, introducing NATO to the Asia Pacific will worsen regional security situation and hinder its integration. The US and Japan's introduction of NATO to the Asia Pacific and instigation of geopolitical conflicts have heated up the tension on the Korean Peninsula, at the Taiwan Strait, and in the South China Sea, casting the pall of a "new Cold War" over East Asia. Medium-sized and small countries in the region, represented by ASEAN members, are forced to pick sides in the whirlwind of major-country competition. Lately, the US and Japan are actively roping in out-of-region forces to meddle in the South China Sea issue, even egging on the Philippines to make provocations, seriously threatening regional peace and stability.

其次，“亚太北约化”将恶化亚太安全局势，阻滞区域一体化进程。美日将北约引入亚太，挑动地缘矛盾对立，导致朝鲜半岛及台海、南海等矛盾升温，使“新冷战”阴云笼罩东亚上空。以东盟为代表的地区中小国家被大国对抗的风险所裹挟，面临选边站队的困境。最近，美日积极拉拢域外势力介入南海，怂恿支持菲律宾采取挑衅行动，严重威胁地区的和平稳定。

Moreover, the deepening collusion with NATO may activate Japan's destructive potential. Historically, Japan's foreign strategies have always been fraught with adventurism and opportunism, showing an obvious tendency to go to extremes. At present, right-wing conservative forces are dominating Japan's political circle, and a populist trend for military expansion and war-preparedness is on the rise. Given that Japan has never truly and deeply reflected on its history of aggressions, its development today is getting increasingly dangerous as the pacifist constitution is being all but shelved and its step towards a military power is picking up speed. This calls for high alert in the international community.

此外，与北约深度勾连恐将激活日本的破坏性能量。从历史上看，日本对外战略中充满冒险主义和机会主义色彩，容易走极端。当前日本国内右翼保守势力主导政坛，谋求扩军备武的民粹主义风潮抬头。鉴于日本始终缺乏对侵略历史的深刻反省，随着和平宪法的制约被逐步架空，“军事大国”进程提速，日本国家发展走向中包含的危险倾向不断凸显，应当引起国际社会高度警惕。

(The author is from China Institute of International Studies.)

（作者单位：中国国际问题研究院）