By Xu Yizhen

许怡真

The US and ROK recently reached their 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) after nearly half a year's negotiations. The new deal, which will officially come into force after being signed by both sides and ratified by the ROK National Assembly, will increase ROK's contribution to the US Forces Korea (USFK) to 1.5192 trillion won (US$ 1.13 billion) in 2026, an 8.3% increase from 2025, and will raise the share annually within the deal's duration from 2026 to 2023 based on the increase in Consumer Price Index.

经过近半年的谈判，美国和韩国日前就第12份《防卫费分担特别协定》达成一致。新协定将在双方签署后，经韩国国会批准正式生效。根据协定，2026年韩方承担的驻韩美军防卫费为1.5192万亿韩元（约合11.34亿美元），较2025年增加8.3%；在2026年至2030年协定有效期内，双方将参考居民消费价格指数涨幅，每年上调韩方分担额。

The 11th SMA currently being implemented will expire at the end of 2025. Usually, the two countries would start negotiations for the next deal one year before the current one expires, but this time they started two years in advance – in April this year, and rushed to an agreement before November when the US presidential election will take place. It's worth noting that this new SMA reached in Biden's term will stay in force across the next four-year presidential term.

目前正在执行的第11份协定有效期至2025年年底。按照惯例，美韩一般会在协定结束前一年开展下一轮谈判。然而，此次双方却罕见地提前近两年，于今年4月就启动了下一份协定的谈判，并赶在11月美国大选前达成一致。值得注意的是，此次拜登政府达成的协定有效期将覆盖下一任美国总统的4年任期。

Analysts said the early conclusion of the deal is an attempt to avoid potential challenges if Trump returns to office next year. The splitting of the defense cost has been a point of divergence chronically troubling the US-ROK alliance. Trump pressured the ROK on this matter when he was in the Oval Office. He demanded that ROK bear more of USFK's expenses, repeatedly complaining that Seoul was "free-riding" America's security protection. During the negotiations for the 11th SMA in 2019, he demanded that ROK increase its annual contribution to US$ 5 billion, a roughly 400% increase, which threw the negotiations to a standstill and no deal had been reached until Biden swore in. If Trump wins the presidential election, he is sure to demand a higher contribution from ROK and put more fiscal pressure on the country.

分析人士认为，提前达成协定是为消减“特朗普可能再次入主白宫”带来的不确定性。防卫费分担一直是困扰美韩联盟的难题，特朗普执政期间双方分歧尤为尖锐。特朗普多次公开“敲打”韩国，认为其长期搭乘美国安全便车，为此强势要求韩国承担更多驻韩美军费用。2019年美韩就第11份协定进行相关谈判时，特朗普政府要求韩方每年负担约50亿美元的驻韩美军费用，是先前的5倍，导致磋商陷入停滞，直到拜登政府上台后才达成协定。一旦特朗普赢得大选对韩国“狮子大开口”，将大大加重韩国的负担。

For a long time, the ROK has been highly reliant on the US for security on the Korean Peninsula and therefore has little say regarding the USFK cost sharing. Although the 12th SMA is a major diplomatic accomplishment achieved with ROK's active efforts, its share has nevertheless increased considerably, again, and will continue to increase annually ever after. The US has agreed that the increase in ROK's contribution won't have to be in step with its greater increase in national defense spending, and could be linked with the Consumer Price Index, a specious response to ROK's appeal to share the cost within a reasonable scope, but Seoul still has to pay a great deal more money. This once again exposed the asymmetry of the US-ROK alliance.

长期以来，韩国受半岛问题掣肘，在安全上对美国高度依赖，因而在驻韩美军防卫费分担上的自主权有限。第12份《防卫费分担特别协定》的达成虽是韩国积极推动取得的外交成果，但韩国要承担的防卫费分担额仍再次大幅上涨，且此后需每年上调。美国看似一定程度上回应了韩国“在合理范围内分担费用”的诉求，即每年上调的韩方分担额不再与增幅更大的韩国国防支出保持同步增长，而是恢复与居民消费价格指数关联。但总体来看，韩国政府还是实打实地承担了更多防卫费，再次将美韩同盟的不对等性暴露无遗。

Washington and Seoul have different axes to grind with their military alliance. While Seoul depends on the US for its defense security, Washington just wants to keep the alliance alive at the lowest cost possible to sustain its own hegemony. At the moment, the US is strengthening its alliance with ROK and pushing NATO's expansion to the Asia Pacific by, for instance, holding multiple highly combat-oriented exercises this year, including the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, in which the USFK bases act as the so-called "strategic anchor" for the US. As Washington proceeds with the major-country competition, the two countries are sure to hold more military exercises on security cooperation, and ROK would have to pay an increasingly higher price for America's military presence in the region.

美韩两国发展军事同盟关系的目标不一致，韩国欲拉住美国确保自身国防安全，美国的目的则是以更低成本维持联盟关系，为维护自身霸权服务。当前，美国正在持续强化美韩同盟，推动北约“亚太化”，仅今年就举办“乙支自由之盾”等多场实战化程度较高的演习。其中，扮演美所谓“战略之锚”的便是驻韩美军基地。未来，随着美国进一步推进大国竞争，双方将围绕安全合作开展更多军事演习，韩国将不得不付出越来越多的代价服务于美国的地区军事存在。

Foreseeably, the US and ROK's divergences and arguments over their cost-sharing will continue. If ROK keeps passively strengthening its military connection with the US, it will find itself losing even the few bargaining chips it has left now.

可以预见，美韩围绕防卫费分担的分歧和争吵将持续存在。面对强势的美国，韩国如果一味被动加强与美国的军事绑定，今后讨价还价的空间只会越来越小。