By Wang Hengwen
王恒文
About 2,000 soldiers and 60 warplanes from 13 NATO members participated in the recent Steadfast Noon large-scale nuclear exercise, which has been held for three consecutive years after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. Although this year's exercise is of the same scale as before, it has still captured international attention for several reasons.
近日，来自13个北约成员国的约2000名军人和60架战机，参加了代号为“坚定正午”的大规模核演习。这是2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，北约连续第三年举行“坚定正午”核演习。虽然在规模上基本与往年持平，但今年的演习仍有多个看点引发外界关注。
In terms of background, this exercise is held amid the lingering Russia-Ukraine conflict and America and Russia's lowering of the threshold for using nuclear weapons. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review issued by the Biden administration largely lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons by abandoning the No First Use and Sole Purpose policies. The US is also quickening steps to develop low-equivalent tactical nuclear weapons and deploy them in Europe, aggravating nuclear confrontation on the continent.
从演习背景看，此次演习是在俄乌冲突持续延宕、美俄不断降低核门槛的背景下举行的。2022年美国拜登政府通过的《核态势评估》报告，放弃了“不首先使用核武器”以及“只用以反击核攻击”原则，大幅降低了核武器的使用门槛。美国还加速研制低当量的战术核武器，并将之部署在欧洲，加剧了欧洲的核对峙。
In terms of duration and location, this year's Steadfast Noon exercise showed new changes. For one thing, its duration lengthened from one week to two weeks, and Finland, which only joined NATO last year, participated as an official member for the first time. For another, the exercise mainly took place in the airspace over the UK and the North Sea, obviously more forward than before and only about 900km from the Russian border at the nearest point. This, combined with the fact that eight military bases were used during the exercise, indicated stronger deterrence against Russia.
从演习时空看，此次“坚定正午”演习有了新的变化。一方面，演习时间从此前的一周延长到两周。去年加入北约的芬兰，也首次作为北约成员国参加核演习。另一方面，演习主要地域位于英国和北海上空，较以往明显前推。演习期间共使用了8个军事基地，演习区域距俄罗斯边境最近只有约900公里，对俄威慑意味更加浓厚。
In terms of subjects, the exercise was more real-combat-oriented by simulating how to take US-provided nuclear weapons out of the vault safely and load them on warplanes. Although NATO officials stressed that no real ammunition would be used, the type of participating aircraft was full proof that Washington is strongly promoting the operational method of loading F-35 with nuclear weapons to launch nuclear attacks. It is highly likely that the US, in the name of providing "nuclear protection", will deploy nuclear weapon carriers, even new types of nuclear bombs, to East Europe.
从演习课目看，本次演习主要模拟如何将美国提供的核武器从地下仓库安全取出并挂载到战机上，实战倾向更加凸显。尽管北约官员强调此次演习“不涉及任何实弹”，但参演战机机型预示美国正大力推广使用F-35战机挂载核武器实施核打击的战法。美国未来很可能以提供“核保护伞”的名义，将核载具乃至新型核弹向东欧国家扩散。
NATO's enhanced nuclear exercise on the excuse of growing external threats will exert serious impacts on the regional situation and global strategic stability.
北约以外部威胁加剧为由，不断提升核演习强度，对地区形势和全球战略稳定都将产生严重冲击。
It will escalate regional tension. With NATO's consistent assistance to Ukraine and containment of Russia, the large-scale, high-intensity military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has a high possibility of dragging on. Not long ago, both NATO and Russia announced their military expansion plans, the former planning to have 49 new combat ready brigades, increasing its ground forces by 245,000 troops in total, and the latter planning to increase its number of troops by another 180,000 troops to drive the total number to 1.5 million. Analysts said the highly charged exercise reflects a rising possibility of head-on confrontation between NATO and Russia, which will further exacerbate the already tense regional security situation.
升级地区紧张局势。在北约持续援乌遏俄的背景下，俄乌之间大规模高强度的军事对抗很可能走向长期化。不久前，北约和俄罗斯都宣布了自己的扩军计划，北约计划新增49个作战旅，使地面部队总兵力增加24.5万人；俄则计划再次扩军18万人，使军队总人数达到150万人。分析人士认为，本次演习具有浓郁的火药味，反映出北约与俄罗斯正面对抗的可能性在提升，将进一步恶化本就紧张的地区安全形势。
It will increase the risks of a nuclear arms race. Recent years have seen the US back out of the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM Treaty), the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty, which has seriously undermined global strategic stability and mutual trust between Washington and Moscow. Russia, on its part, has temporarily withdrawn its facilities from inspections under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).
增加核军备竞赛风险。近年来，美国相继退出《反导条约》《中导条约》《开放天空条约》，严重破坏全球战略稳定和美俄相互信任。俄方则宣布暂时退出《新削减战略武器条约》的设施核查机制。
The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pointed out that nuclear deterrence serves as the cornerstone of the allies' security, and the exercise was aimed to send a clear message to any adversary that NATO will protect and defend all Allies. Angus Lapsley, NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning, made it clear that the organization seeks to deter any adversaries, and principally Russia, in several different ways. Remarks like this may prompt Moscow to join the nuclear arms race and defend its interests by developing nuclear forces, which will eventually cast a shadow of nuclear war over Europe.
北约新任秘书长吕特指出，核威慑是盟国安全的基石，这次演习旨在“向任何对手表明，北约已做好应对任何威胁的准备”。北约助理秘书长拉普斯利更明确地表示，北约“寻求通过几种不同的方式威慑任何对手，主要是俄罗斯”。这样的言论，可能刺激俄罗斯被迫加入核军备竞赛，通过发展核力量来维护自身利益，最终导致欧洲上空再度笼罩核战争阴云。
The US is the biggest beneficiary of the Steadfast Noon exercise. While it is urging NATO to intensify the containment of Russia through nuclear exercises and other means, it is actually trying to maintain its own hegemony. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict lingers, Europe becomes more reliant on NATO for protection than before and has no choice but to accept America's reinforced nuclear deterrence on the continent, and its deployment of nuclear weapons to more European countries in the name of providing nuclear protection.
美国是最大的获利者。美国主导北约通过核演习等方式强化对俄遏制示强，背后暗藏其谋求霸权的私利。在俄乌冲突延宕难决的背景下，欧洲对北约的依赖空前强化，不得不认同美国在欧洲加强核威慑的做法，接受美以提供“核保护伞”的名义把核武器部署到更多的欧洲国家。
By wrapping Europe around its little finger on the grounds of "security", the US can intensify its political control over and military penetration into European allies in the name of "protection" while also driving international capital back to America. There are numerous signs that Europe, which is eager but unable to achieve "strategic independence", may once again find itself deeply mired in a vortex of "balance of nuclear terror".
而美国用安全议题套牢欧洲，既可以“保护”之名行控制之实，强化对欧洲盟国的政治控制和军事渗透，也可驱赶国际资本回流美国。种种迹象表明，在实现“战略自主”上有心无力的欧洲，很可能再次深陷“核恐怖平衡”的旋涡中，难以自拔。
