By Guo Xiaobing
郭晓兵
Recently, the Biden administration significantly adjusted its policy on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine, permitting Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russian territory. With less than two months left for the Biden administration's term, why did it make such a major decision suddenly? What impact will it have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
日前，拜登政府大幅调整援乌武器的使用政策，准许乌克兰使用美国提供的陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS）攻击俄纵深。拜登政府任期已不足两个月，为何突然作出这一重大决定？又将对俄乌局势产生怎样的影响？
The so-called ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile manufactured by the US company Lockheed Martin. It can carry 170 kilograms of explosives and has a range of up to 305 kilometers.
所谓的陆军战术导弹系统，是由美国洛马公司制造的一种短程弹道导弹，可携带170千克的炸药，射程达305公里。
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, the provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine and related usage policies have been a focus of controversy in the US. The Biden administration had misgivings about providing such weapons to Ukraine. On the one hand, it worried about depleting its own weapons stockpiles, as supplying Ukraine with a large quantity of such weapons could affect its military readiness in other regions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, Washinton fretted that the use of these weapons by Ukraine to strike Russia could escalate the conflict.
自2022年2月乌克兰危机爆发以来，对乌提供远程武器及相关使用政策一直是美国内争议焦点。拜登政府对于向乌提供此类武器不无顾虑：一是担心自身武器库存不足，向乌大量提供此类武器将影响其他地区尤其是“印太”地区战备；二是担心乌使用此类武器攻击俄罗斯或引发冲突升级。
The Biden administration's adjustment of its policy on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine is made on the excuse of countering the DPRK's involvement in Russia's military operations. Firstly, from a tactical perspective, it can help Ukraine resist Russia's counteroffensive in the Kursk region, thereby preserving its negotiating leverage with Russia. The US claims that Russia is mobilizing 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, to launch a large-scale attack on Ukrainian forces occupying Kursk. Ukraine could use the ATACMS to target the assembly areas of Russian and North Korean troops, key military equipment, logistical hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines within Russian territory. Secondly, in terms of diplomacy, the US aims to send a deterrent signal to North Korea and prevent it from sending additional troops to support Russia.
拜登政府此番调整援乌远程武器使用政策，借口是反制朝入俄作战。一是在战术上，帮助乌抵御俄在库尔斯克地区的反攻，从而尽量保住与俄谈判的筹码。美宣称俄正调动包括朝鲜援军在内的5万名士兵对占领库尔斯克的乌军发动大规模攻击。乌克兰可使用陆军战术导弹系统攻击俄朝军队集结地、关键军事装备、后勤节点、弹药库和俄境内补给线。二是在外交上，向朝鲜发出威慑信号，阻止其向俄增派援军。
In addition, the Biden administration's move is clearly influenced by the consideration of offsetting potential adjustments to Ukraine policy by Trump during his second term. Trump and Biden have diametrically opposite views on the Ukraine crisis. Trump has strongly criticized the Biden administration for providing large amounts of aid to Ukraine, advocating for an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There are two main reasons behind his stance. One is from the perspective of the economy. He believes that war fuels inflation and that ending the conflict would lower commodity prices. The other is about strategy. He argues that ending the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East would allow the US to focus its efforts on countering China.
此外，拜登政府此举明显有对冲特朗普第二任期对乌政策调整的考虑。特朗普与拜登对于乌克兰危机的看法迥异。特朗普猛烈抨击拜登政府向乌提供大量援助，力主尽快终结俄乌战事。其出发点有两个：一是在经济上，他认为，战争滋生通胀，结束冲突可以降低大宗商品价格；二是在战略上，结束欧洲和中东的冲突，才能集中精力对付中国。
After the US announced it would permit Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied ATACMS to strike Russia, the UK and France quickly followed suit, allowing Ukraine to use their long-range weapons to target Russian territory. In response, Russia has repeatedly issued warnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated as early as September that lifting the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons would significantly change the nature of the conflict, implying that NATO would be directly involved in the war. In this context, Russia is considering revising the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, emphasizing that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported or participated in by a nuclear-armed state, will be regarded as a joint attack on Russia. This means that Ukraine's use of long-range missiles provided by the West to strike deep into Russian territory could increase the risk of a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO.
在美宣布准许乌克兰使用美国提供的陆军战术导弹系统攻击俄之后，英、法迅速跟进，允许乌使用其提供的远程武器攻击俄领土。对此，俄方反复发出警告。俄总统普京早在9月就已表示，取消对乌使用西方武器的限制将大大改变冲突性质，意味着北约直接参与了冲突。为此，俄还酝酿修订《核威慑国家政策基本原则》，强调“任何无核武器国家对俄罗斯的侵略，若有核武器国家参与或支持，即视为对俄罗斯的联合攻击”。这意味着乌利用援助的远程导弹攻击俄纵深目标，引发俄罗斯与北约核冲突风险可能增加。
However, Ukraine's potential to leverage long-range missiles for local advantages and the window of opportunity for doing so are both limited. Firstly, the US supply of the ATACMS to Ukraine is limited. A portion has already been used and the remaining stock is not substantial. Secondly, the Trump administration will take office on January 20 next year. While the Trump administration may not have a magic solution to end the Ukraine crisis within 24 hours, it could certainly revoke the Biden administration's orders, reimpose restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, and thereby force Zelensky to comply more closely with the directives of the Trump administration.
不过，乌克兰运用远程导弹谋求局部优势的潜力和时间窗口均有限。其一，美国向乌克兰提供的陆军战术导弹系统有限，此前已消耗一部分，剩余的并不太多。其二，特朗普政府明年1月20日将上台。其未必有“灵丹妙药”能让乌克兰危机在24小时内停止，但完全可以撤回拜登政府的命令，重新限制乌对美制远程导弹的使用范围，从而让泽连斯基更加顺从地按照特朗普政府的指挥棒走。
(The author is a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
（作者是中国现代国际关系研究院研究员）
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
