By Li Yingying
李莹莹
In early November, Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Based on statements from Donald Trump and key members of his early political team, it appears that the second Trump Administration would likely lean towards reducing aid to Ukraine and pushing for peace talks with Russia, aiming to "freeze" the conflict. Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also took the initiative to call Russian President Putin to explore the possibility of promoting peace talks. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would only engage in negotiations with Russia under the condition that it has strong support from third countries with a firm stance. President Putin stated that Russia remains open to resuming negotiations, but any potential agreements must account for Russia's interests and be based on the new territorial realities established by the ongoing conflict. The positions of both sides are sharply opposed. Whether peace talks can move forward will depend on Trump's actual policy actions and whether Russia and the US can find common ground on key conditions.
11月初，特朗普赢得美国总统大选，从特朗普及其初步组建的执政团队成员相关表态来看，“特朗普2.0”政权更倾向于减少对乌克兰援助，推动俄乌和谈，以“冻结”冲突。德国总理朔尔茨近期也主动与普京通话，试探推动和谈的可能性。对此，泽连斯基表示，乌克兰只有在第三国支持，拥有强力立场条件下才会与俄谈判。普京则表示，俄一直对恢复谈判持开放态度，但任何可能达成的协议都应考虑到俄的利益，且以新的领土现实为基础。双方立场针锋相对，能否走向和谈还要取决于特朗普的实际施政举措，以及俄美能否就关键条件达成共识。
After the US presidential election, there have been signs of intensifying and escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides are trying to maximize their gains in order to gain more bargaining chips for possible negotiations after Trump takes office. In recent weeks, Russian forces on the Eastern front have advanced at a pace of approximately 300 square kilometers per week, setting a new record since early 2023. As of mid-November, Russian forces controlled 18.8% of Ukraine's territory. In the Kursk region, Ukrainian-controlled areas are being surrounded by Russian forces on three sides. Russian officials claim to have recaptured around 50% of the territory in this area. Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russian forces have gathered around 50,000 soldiers and are planning a large-scale counteroffensive in the Kursk region. In addition, Russia has carried out a new round of concentrated strikes on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure and military-industrial enterprises using long-range precision-guided weapons.
美国总统大选之后，俄乌战事出现激化和升级迹象。双方都在尽可能地扩大战果，以便为特朗普上台后可能出现的谈判争取更多筹码。在乌东前线，俄军最近几周的推进速度达到每周300平方公里左右，创下2023年初以来的纪录。截至11月中旬，俄方控制了18.8％的乌克兰领土。在库尔斯克州，乌占领区正在被俄军三面包围，俄军声称已夺回50％左右的领土。最新情报显示，俄军集结了5万士兵，计划在库尔斯克发动大规模反攻。此外，俄方还利用远程精确制导武器对乌关键能源基础设施和军工企业进行新一轮集中打击。
In the face of the harsh battlefield conditions, Ukraine's actions have become more daring. On November 10, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Moscow, forcing the temporary closure of two major airports in the city. Meanwhile, to assist Ukraine in accelerating its counteroffensive and to prevent the next US administration from adopting an appeasement policy toward Russia, Biden, with only two months left in his term, authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian targets. Considering that over 200 military and paramilitary targets in Russia are within the range of ATACMS, this poses a significant threat to Russia's logistics hubs and command centers.
在严峻的战场形势下，乌克兰的冒险行为更加突出。11月10日，乌克兰对莫斯科发动最大规模的无人机袭击，迫使该市两个主要机场暂时关闭。与此同时，为帮助乌克兰加紧反攻，防止下一任政府对俄罗斯采取“绥靖”政策，拜登在任期仅剩两个月之际准许乌克兰使用美制陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS）攻击俄罗斯。据美国官员透露，拜登政府此举主要是为了回应朝鲜军队部署到库尔斯克州战场，以阻止朝鲜向俄罗斯部署更多部队。考虑到俄罗斯境内有200多个军事和准军事目标处于ATACMS射程内，这将对俄罗斯的后勤枢纽和指挥中心构成严重威胁。
Although Trump has not publicly disclosed a final solution to the Ukraine crisis, proposals from his close associates and advisers suggest that the new administration will shift away from Biden's policy towards Ukraine. This includes a reduced willingness to meet Ukraine's various aid demands. The proposal from the incoming administration is expected to include key points such as freezing the front lines and establishing an 800-mile demilitarized zone along them. Russia would retain control over certain Ukrainian territories, and Ukraine would commit to not seeking NATO membership for the next 20 years. Additionally, the US would continue to provide weapons and military equipment for Ukraine.
尽管特朗普没有对外透露关于乌克兰危机的最终解决方案，但从他身边政要和顾问的提议看，新一届政府将放弃拜登政府的对乌政策——不再对乌克兰的各种援助需求有求必应。新政府的提案要点拟包括冻结前线，沿前线设立800英里的非军事区；俄罗斯将保留对乌部分领土的控制权，乌承诺在未来20年内不会试图加入北约，美国将继续向乌提供武器和军事装备等。
Russia currently insists on its strategic demands, including the legalization of territories it occupies in Ukraine and Ukraine's neutrality. It can be expected that, once the Trump administration takes office, there will be increased contact and dialogue between Russia and the US. However, reaching an agreement on each other's conditions and demands will not be easy. Besides, the Trump administration will need to consider the demands of its European allies, as Europe is unwilling to accept a defeated Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine insists on reclaiming its lost territories and joining NATO and is unwilling to become a pawn in any Russia-US deal. Currently, Ukrainian forces have used ATACMS to launch a series of strikes on Russia's border areas. It is also possible that Ukraine will use long-range weapons to target other regions in Russia if the situation becomes unfavorable, potentially further escalating the conflict.
俄罗斯当前坚持自身战略诉求，包括在乌占领领土合法化、乌保持中立地位等。可以预见的是，特朗普政府上台后，俄美之间的接触和对话会增多，但要双方同意对方的条件和要价并不容易。而且，特朗普政府要考虑到欧洲盟友的诉求，因为欧洲不愿接受一个失败的乌克兰。而乌克兰坚持收复失地并加入北约，也不愿沦为俄美交易的牺牲品。当前，乌军已使用ATACMS对俄边境地区进行了一轮袭击，不排除乌会在不利情况下使用远程武器对俄罗斯境内其他地区进行纵深打击，以进一步扩大战事。
In the future, the direction of the Ukrainian crisis will mainly depend on whether Russia and the US can reach a compromise on key conditions. If Russia does not accept the US proposal, Trump may increase aid to Ukraine and the conflict will continue. Even if both parties agree to sit down and negotiate, it will be a long process before reaching an agreement. The unchanging trend in the future is that the West will continue to increase its investment in Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises. Even if Ukraine cannot join NATO, the West is likely to accelerate the process of political and military integration with Ukraine.
未来，乌克兰危机走向主要取决于俄美之间能否就关键条件达成妥协。如果俄罗斯不接受美国提议，特朗普可能会加码援乌，冲突将持续下去。即使双方同意坐下来谈判，要达成协议也需要经过一个漫长的过程。未来不变的趋势是，西方将持续增加对乌克兰军工企业的投资。即使乌克兰无法加入北约，西方也会加快与乌的政治军事一体化进程。
(The author is an assistant researcher at the Department for European-Central Asian Studies, China Institute of International Studies)
（作者是中国国际问题研究院欧亚所助理研究员）
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
