By Wang Hengwen

王恒文

Recently, Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the LDP's policy research council, stated that Japan is willing to bear certain costs to continue using the military training grounds located on the US overseas territory of Tinian Island. This is the second time Japan has proposed the long-term deployment of forces on US soil, following a statement in September by Japan's current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, expressing a desire to establish a training base for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) in the US.

近期，日本自民党政策调查会长小野寺五典称，日本愿意承担一定费用以持续使用位于美国海外领地天宁岛上的军事训练场。这是继今年9月日本现任首相石破茂表示希望在美国建立自卫队训练基地后，日本又一次提出在美国土地上长期部署部队。

Analysts believe that, according to the provisions of the Japan-US Security Treaty and the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement, their alliance is not an equal relationship. Recently, Japan has deviated from its usual stance, attempting to break the constraints imposed by the two aforementioned documents. It aims to adjust the Japan-US alliance through a "small steps, fast pace" approach, seeking equality between the two sides. However, considering various factors, this goal is difficult to achieve.

分析人士认为，根据《日美安保条约》和《日美地位协定》相关规定，日美同盟关系并不对等。日本最近一反常态，试图突破上述两个文件限制，意在通过“小步快跑”的方式，调整日美同盟关系，寻求双方对等。然而，综合多方面因素来看，这一目标难以实现。

This June, the US military proposed a plan to relocate nearly half of the US forces currently stationed in Okinawa to Guam, Hawaii, and the US mainland. The US military's adjustment of its force deployment appears, on the surface, to be aimed at reducing the burden on the local population in Okinawa. In reality, it shifts more of the defense burden of the risk-prone first island chain onto Japan. In response, Japan is fully aware of the situation. The recent calls from Japanese politicians for the deployment of JSDF troops in the US are, in fact, expressions of dissatisfaction with the US military's relocation plan.

今年6月，美国军方拟定了一项计划，将把目前驻扎冲绳美军的近一半兵力转移至关岛、夏威夷和美国本土。美军的此番兵力部署调整，表面上是为“减轻冲绳当地民众负担”，实则是将风险较大的第一岛链防务压力更多甩给日本。对此，日方心知肚明，日本政客近期接连要求在美国部署部队的背后，就是在表达对美军“大搬迁”的不满。

On November 11, the National Diet of Japan held a special parliamentary session to elect the prime minister. Shigeru Ishiba, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, narrowly secured re-election as Prime Minister after two rounds of voting in the House of Representatives, avoiding the fate of becoming Japan's shortest-serving Prime Minister after WWII. However, Shigeru Ishiba faces numerous challenges in his future governance. In addition to having to address Japan's long-standing domestic economic and livelihood issues, his cabinet will inevitably encounter obstruction from opposition parties when making policy decisions and implementing measures. Against this backdrop, Shigeru Ishiba's emphasis on striving for an equal status with the US also reflects a desire to project a strong image, with the aim of boosting domestic support.

11月11日，日本国会举行首相指名选举，自民党总裁石破茂在众议院投票中历经两轮角逐涉险过关保住首相之位，避免了沦为二战后日本最“短命”首相的命运。然而，石破茂未来的执政道路面临重重困难，除了不得不面对日本国内长期积累的经济民生问题，其内阁在决策施政时也必然遭到来自在野党的阻挠。在此背景下，石破茂强调要对美争取平等地位，也有展现强硬形象，从而提升国内支持率的考量。

Shigeru Ishiba has declared that he will push for the revision of the Japan-US Security Treaty, aiming to elevate the Japan-US relationship to a more equal alliance, similar to the one between the UK and the US. In recent years, the US has become fixated on the so-called great power competition and has actively eased military restrictions on Japan, granting it more autonomy within the alliance framework. From allowing Japan to produce the Patriot missiles, to announcing the restructuring of the US military command in Japan, and even permitting the maintenance of large US vessels in Japan, the US government's various tacit approvals and concessions have led Japan to develop an illusion of Japan-US equality.

石破茂宣称，将推动修改《日美安保条约》，把日美关系升级为与英美关系类似的对等同盟。近年来，美国执迷所谓“大国竞争”，主动对日进行军事松绑，在同盟架构中赋予其更多自主权。从同意日本生产“爱国者”导弹，到宣布重组驻日美军司令部，再到允许美国大型舰艇在日本进行维修……美国政府的种种默许和纵容，让日本产生了“日美平等”的幻觉。

However, an illusion is ultimately just an illusion. There are essential differences between the defense relations between the US and the UK and between the US and Japan. The US and the UK are culturally similar, with their "special relationship" rooted in the anti-Fascist alliance of WWII. The level of mutual trust between the two far exceeds that of the US-Japan relationship. In contrast, Japan, as the culprit of the Pacific War and a defeated nation in WWII, has long been under the surveillance of the US. Although the US views Japan as a vanguard in implementing the so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy, it has never let down its guard. Ironically, the location Shigeru Ishiba proposed for the long-term deployment of the JSDF, Tinian Island, was the very site from which US B-29 bombers took off to drop atomic bombs on Japan at the end of WWII. Japan's focus on this island is likely to make the US more wary of its intentions.

不过，幻觉终究是幻觉。美英与美日防务关系有着本质区别。美英在文化上相近，双方的“特殊关系”建立在二战时期的反法西斯同盟基础上，二者的互信程度远远高于日美关系。反观日本，作为太平洋战争“元凶”和二战战败国，长期以来都是美国的“监管对象”。美国虽然将日本视为推行所谓“印太战略”的马前卒，但从未放下戒心。颇为讽刺的是，小野寺五典提出希望长期派驻自卫队的天宁岛，正是二战末期美军B-29轰炸机对日本投放原子弹时的起飞地点。日本围绕该岛做文章，极可能让美方对其更加警惕。

In addition, with Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, he will likely continue the approach from his first term, adopting a more assertive stance toward allies. Taking all these factors into consideration, Japan's pursuit of an equal alliance with the US is unlikely to succeed. Its proposal to permanently deploy the JSDF on US soil is merely a rhetorical gesture and its so-called demand for equality is destined to remain a fleeting illusion.

此外，特朗普在美国总统大选中获胜，他上任后大概率会延续其第一任期的做法，对盟友采取更加强势的姿态。综合种种因素，日本谋求日美对等同盟关系难以如愿，提出在美国土地上长期部署自卫队不过是逞口舌之快，其所谓“平等”的要求也注定是镜花水月。