By Zhao Guojun

赵国军

Israel's security cabinet approved a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon with a vote of 10 to 1, according to a statement issued by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office on the evening of November 26, local time. According to Israeli media reports, the agreement came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on November 27. Many analysts pointed out that although the agreement can bring temporary peace to both Israel and Lebanon, there are many uncertainties in its implementation. The dilemma in the Middle East remains difficult to resolve.

当地时间11月26日晚，以色列总理办公室发表声明说，以安全内阁当晚以10比1的投票结果批准了以色列与黎巴嫩真主党的停火协议。据以色列媒体报道，这一协议于当地时间27日凌晨4时生效。很多分析指出，虽然该协议能为黎以双方带来暂时和平，但如何落实面临许多不确定性，中东困局依旧难解。

According to media reports, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah stipulates that Hezbollah and all Lebanese armed groups promise not to launch any attacks on Israel, and the Israeli armed forces cease strikes on targets in Lebanon. Both Lebanon and Israel retain the right to self-defense. Lebanon's Internal Security Forces (ISF) and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will be the only armed entities authorized to carry weapons or deploy forces in south Lebanon.

据媒体披露，黎以停火协议规定，黎巴嫩真主党及所有黎巴嫩武装团体承诺不对以色列发动任何攻击，以军停止对黎境内目标的军事打击，黎以两国均保有自卫权。黎安全部队和军队将是被授权在黎南部携带武器或进行部署的实体。

The current conflict between the Israel and Hezbollah is the result of a new round of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since October 7 last year, Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with the Israeli army across the Lebanon-Israel border, providing support to the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which is fighting the Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip. In response, Israel has carried out airstrikes and shelling on Hezbollah. Since September this year, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated sharply with intensified exchanges of fire. This has caused significant casualties, particularly Lebanese personnel.

此次黎以冲突是新一轮巴以冲突外溢所致。去年10月7日以来，黎巴嫩真主党隔着黎以边界与以军交火，策应在加沙地带与以军作战的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯），以色列则还以空袭和炮击。今年9月以来，黎以冲突骤然升级，双方交火愈演愈烈，造成大量人员、尤其是黎方人员伤亡。

The ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hezbollah is the result of the consideration of the interests of all parties. For Israel, there are three main considerations for accepting the ceasefire agreement. First, it aims to deal with the threat from Iran. Second, it intends to allow the troops to rest and replenish weapons reserves. Third, it attempts to cut off the connection between the enemy's north and south fronts and isolate Hamas. Once Hezbollah withdraws from the battlefield, Hamas will fall into a more isolated situation. For Hezbollah, the ceasefire can better preserve its strength. In addition, the Lebanese general election is coming soon. The longer Hezbollah engages in conflict with Israel, the greater the pressure it faces from Lebanese voters at home. For the US, Biden is eager to leave a so-called "political legacy" before leaving office in January next year. Securing a ceasefire at this time is a "diplomatic victory" for Biden and his administration.

黎以达成停火协议，是各方出于自身利益考量的结果。从以色列方面来看，接受停火协议主要有三方面考虑：一是应对伊朗的威胁；二是让部队休整并补充武器储备；三是切断敌方南北战线间的联系和孤立哈马斯。一旦真主党退出战场，哈马斯将陷入更加孤立的境地。从黎巴嫩真主党方面来看，停火能够更好保存其自身实力。另外，黎巴嫩大选即将到来，真主党与以色列作战持续时间越长，其面临的来自黎巴嫩国内选民的压力越大。对于美国而言，拜登急于在明年1月离任前留下所谓“政治遗产”，此时达成停火协议对于拜登及其团队来说是“一次外交胜利”。

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah can help ease tensions between the two sides to some extent. However, the core issue of the Middle East dilemma remains the Palestinian question. As long as the conflict in Gaza continues, achieving stability in the region will be very challenging. Only by promoting a comprehensive, just, and lasting resolution of the Palestinian question can peace be achieved in the Middle East.

黎以达成停火协议，对缓解双方紧张局势能起到一定作用，不过中东困局的核心依旧是巴勒斯坦问题。只要加沙战火未能平息，中东地区的稳定就面临重重困难。只有推动巴勒斯坦问题早日得到全面、公正、持久的解决，才能真正实现中东地区的和平。