By Liu Kaiand Li Dongxu
刘恺、李东旭
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently put forward a new ceasefire proposal during an interview with British media. He stated that he is willing to halt the active combat between Russia and Ukraine, provided that the territories controlled by Ukraine are placed under NATO protection. Once the territories controlled by Ukraine are placed under NATO protection, Ukraine will seek the return of occupied territories through diplomatic channels.
乌克兰总统泽连斯基日前接受英国媒体采访时就俄乌冲突抛出新的停火提议，表示在乌方控制的领土被纳入北约保护的前提下，他愿意停止俄乌间热战。在乌控领土被纳入北约后，乌克兰将通过外交渠道解决被占领土归还问题。
This is the first time since Ukraine's unsuccessful counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 that Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly supported the proposal to include Ukrainian-controlled territories in NATO. In response, Bloomberg reported that President Zelensky has sent the clearest signal yet to the West, indicating his readiness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict without demanding the return of occupied territories. Russian military experts, however, believe that Zelensky's ceasefire proposal is aimed at halting the advance of Russian forces. The desire for Ukraine to join NATO suggests that Ukraine seeks to continue rather than end the war, which is unacceptable to Russia. Russia will no longer allow Western countries to arm Kyiv under the cover of an agreement.
这是自乌军2023年夏季反攻不利以来，泽连斯基首次公开支持先让乌控区纳入北约的提议。对此，美国彭博社发文称，泽连斯基向西方发出“迄今最明确信号”，表明他准备在不要求归还被占领土情况下结束俄乌冲突。而俄罗斯军事专家则认为泽连斯基停火提议目的是试图阻止俄军前进，乌克兰加入北约的愿望说明乌方想要继续而非结束战争，这种想法不可接受。俄罗斯不会再允许西方国家“在协议的掩护下”武装基辅。
Why did Zelensky change his position? Will this ceasefire proposal come true?
泽连斯基为何改变立场？这份停火提议能否实现？
Analysts pointed out that the main reason for Zelensky's change of mind was the unfavorable war situation. Since the summer of 2023, despite the continuous increase of Western aid, the Ukrainian troops have not gained advantage. On the contrary, it has faced increasing pressure on all fronts. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defense cited by TASS on December 1, the Russian army has taken control of 74 more settlements in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, Kharkov and other regions, and recaptured 14 settlements in Kursk Oblast in the fall of 2024.
分析人士指出，泽连斯基立场发生变化的主要原因在于战事不利。2023年夏季以来，虽然西方援助不断增加，但乌军没有占据优势，相反在各条战线面临的压力越来越大。塔斯社12月1日援引俄国防部数据报道称，今年秋天俄军在顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热、哈尔科夫等地区控制的居民点增加74个，重新夺回库尔斯克州的14个居民点。
Ukrainian military expert Alexander Musiyenko believes that while Zelensky's proposal may not be the best option for the Ukrainian people, it is a plan based on reality and the relevant suggestions from Western countries.
乌克兰军事专家亚历山大•穆西延科认为，泽连斯基的主张虽然并非乌民众能接受的最好方案，却是基于现实和西方国家相关提议做出的方案。
Recently, public opinion in Ukraine has changed. According to a recent survey from polling agency Gallup, 52% of Ukrainians support ending the war as soon as possible through negotiations, a significant increase from 27% a year ago. Meanwhile, the proportion of Ukrainians determined to fight until victory has dropped from 63% to 38%. Ukrainian analysts believe that, given the current situation where Russian forces are gaining the upper hand on various fronts, an increasing number of Ukrainians may support a ceasefire and the pursuit of peace.
近期，乌克兰民意出现变化。据民调机构盖洛普前不久发布的民意调查，52%的乌克兰人支持通过谈判尽快结束战争，比一年前的27%大幅上升；决心战斗到胜利的乌克兰人比例则从63%下降到38%。乌克兰分析人士认为，由于目前俄军在各个战线占据主动，可能会有越来越多乌民众支持停火与实现和平。
On November 27, President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg to be the special assistant to the President and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. According to Reuters, Kellogg had proposed a plan aimed at quickly ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which included using the increase or reduction of US military aid to Ukraine as leverage to force both Russia and Ukraine to engage in peace negotiations. The possible shift in US policy on the Ukraine issue after Donald Trump takes office is also one of the reasons for Zelensky to change his policy stance.
美国候任总统特朗普11月27日宣布，将提名基思•凯洛格出任总统助理及乌克兰和俄罗斯问题特使。据路透社报道，凯洛格曾提出一项旨在迅速结束俄乌冲突的计划，内容包括将美对乌军援的增减作为筹码，迫使俄乌双方进行和平谈判。特朗普就任后美国在乌克兰问题上的政策可能转向，也是泽连斯基改变政策口径的原因之一。
In early November this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated the two major conditions for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, namely the neutralization of Ukraine and the determination of the border between Russia and Ukraine based on current realities. Obviously, the proposal of Zelensky this time is far from these two conditions. The BBC reported that it was unrealistic for Vladimir Putin to allow any part of Ukraine to join NATO.
今年11月初，俄罗斯总统普京重申解决俄乌冲突的两大条件：乌克兰中立化、基于当前现实确定俄乌两国边界。很明显，泽连斯基此次提议内容与普京的两个条件相距甚远。英国广播公司报道认为，让普京允许乌克兰任何部分加入北约都不切实际。
There is widespread attention on how Donald Trump will intervene in the Ukraine crisis after taking office in January. Public opinion suggests that while President Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to discuss the Ukraine issue with Donald Trump, there are no signs indicating that he is prepared to make concessions to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some analysts point out that various signs suggest the Ukrainian troops are rebuilding their forces and plans to launch a new round of counteroffensive operations in order to consolidate its defenses in eastern Ukraine and the Kursk direction.
特朗普明年1月上任后将如何介入乌克兰危机，受到外界普遍关注。舆论认为，普京虽表示愿与特朗普讨论乌克兰问题，但没有迹象表明他准备通过让步来结束俄乌冲突。有分析指出，种种迹象表明乌军正在重建兵力并计划发动新一轮反攻，以稳固乌东部和库尔斯克方向的防线。
An article in Die Welt of Germany points out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated to a new level over the past two weeks, with both sides seeking to accumulate leverage before any potential future negotiations. Ukrainian military commentator Yevhen Zhyhii believes that if Ukraine can resolve its conscription issues this winter, and with comprehensive military aid from the West, the Ukrainian military may be in a position to launch a counteroffensive by early 2025. From this, it can be concluded that the prospects for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the short term remain unlikely.
德国《世界报》文章指出，俄乌冲突过去两周升级到新高度，俄乌双方都希望在未来可能举行的谈判前尽量积累筹码。乌克兰军事评论员叶夫根•季基认为，如果今冬乌方能解决征兵问题，在西方全面军援下，乌军在2025年初或具备发动反攻条件。由此判断，俄乌双方短期内达成停火协议的前景仍不乐观。
