By Song Junting and Li Shurui

宋俊廷、李姝睿

The situation in Syria has undergone dramatic changes since late November. Opposition forces rapidly seized several strategic strongholds and entered the capital, Damascus, on December 8, and claimed to have "liberated Damascus and overthrown the al-Assad regime." According to Syrian media, the Syrian transitional government, led by caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, officially assumed power on Tuesday and the interim governance will last until March 1, 2025.

11月底以来，叙利亚局势发生突变，反对派武装快速占领多个战略要地，并于12月8日进入首都大马士革，宣称已“解放大马士革并推翻阿萨德政权”。据叙利亚媒体报道，以穆罕默德·巴希尔为看守总理的叙利亚过渡政府10日正式接管权力，期限暂定至2025年3月1日。

Syria has been in a state of continuous turmoil since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, which has led to the coexistence of armed forces supported by different forces. The recent large-scale armed conflict has escalated rapidly and sharply changed the  Syrian situation in just over 10 days, which has brought the once-cooled Syrian issue back under the international spotlight.

2011年随着内战爆发，叙利亚陷入持续动荡，并形成了不同势力支持的武装力量同时存在、犬牙交错的态势。此次大规模武装冲突发展迅速，叙局势在10余天内急转直下、发生突变，这将一度降温的叙利亚问题重新拉回国际社会的视野中。

It is reported that the Syrian opposition group leading this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria known as the "al-Nusra Front." In 2016, the al-Nusra Front severed ties with al-Qaeda and rebranded itself. It is defined as a terrorist organization by the UN and the US. Additionally, some media reported that the Türkiye-backed opposition group Syrian National Army also participated in the operation.

据报道，主导本轮攻势的叙反对派武装是“沙姆解放组织”，其前身是“基地”组织在叙的分支“努斯拉阵线”。2016年，“努斯拉阵线”断绝与“基地”组织的联系并以新身份登台，目前被联合国和美国等列为恐怖组织。此外有媒体称，土耳其支持的反对派武装“叙利亚国民军”也参与此次行动。

Why did the situation in Syria suddenly change? Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that this is the result of the continuous accumulation of the al-Assad regime's governance issues and the spillover of recent geopolitical conflicts. In the past few years, the Syrian opposition forces have been largely controlled by Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iran. Now, affected by the Lebanon-Israel and Iran-Israel conflicts, the al-Assad government has received significantly less support in terms of economy and weapons.

叙利亚局势缘何发生突变？中国国际问题研究院助理研究员李子昕表示，这是巴沙尔政府问题不断积累叠加近期地缘冲突外溢的结果。过去几年，叙反对派武装很大程度上被黎巴嫩真主党及伊朗所钳制。如今受黎以、伊以冲突影响，巴沙尔政府在经济和武器上得到的支持力度大不如前。

"The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict also provided an opportunity for Syrian opposition forces," said Gao Shangtao, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University. Externally, Russia has been too preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine to focus on Syria. Internally, the al-Assad government forces have shown increasing fatigue and low morale in recent years, enabling the opposition's surprise attacks to achieve unexpected results, said Gao.

“俄乌冲突的升级，也让叙反对派武装抓住了机会。”外交学院中东研究中心主任高尚涛表示，从外部因素来看，受俄乌冲突影响，俄无暇南顾；从内部因素来看，巴沙尔政府军近些年来疲态尽显、士气低落，这才让叙反对派武装的突袭取得了超预期的战绩。

"Syria may be caught in a continuous armed conflict," Li said. Recently, there have been reports that Israeli ground forces have occupied the buffer zone of the Golan Heights. This is the first time that Israeli ground forces have openly entered Syrian territory since 1974. Li said that external forces may increase their intervention in the situation in Syria, and geopolitical conflicts will further intensify.

“叙利亚或陷入持续武装冲突中。”李子昕说。近日有报道称，以色列地面部队已占领戈兰高地缓冲区。这是1974年以来以色列地面部队首次公开进入叙利亚领土。李子昕表示，未来，外部势力或加大对叙利亚局势的干预力度，地缘冲突将进一步加剧。

"The previous relative calm in Syria was merely a balance of power under certain conditions, and the underlying contradictions were never truly resolved. Now that the balance has been disrupted, it will be even harder to establish a stable framework," said Gao.

“此前叙局势的相对平静，只是由于各方势力在一定条件下达成平衡，矛盾并未得到真正解决。如今平衡打破，想要再形成稳定架构会更加困难。”高尚涛说。

Both experts said that the prolonged Palestine-Israel conflict has impacted the already fragile regional security architecture and balance of power. The sudden change in Syria has added new variables to the chaos in the Middle East. In the future, Syria's political landscape may become more fragmented, and regional security will face more severe challenges.

两位受访专家都表示，巴以冲突的长期延宕，让本就脆弱的地区安全架构和力量平衡遭受冲击。此次叙利亚局势突变更是给中东乱局增添新变数。未来，叙利亚政治版图可能会更加破碎，地区安全将面临更加严峻的挑战。

As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said, Syrians have endured the conflict for nearly 14 years. They deserve a political horizon that will deliver a peaceful future, not more bloodshed. The future and fate of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people. All relevant parties should act for the long-term and fundamental interests of the Syrian people and work towards finding a political solution to restore stability and order as soon as possible.

正如联合国秘书长古特雷斯所言，叙利亚人民已经忍受了近14年的冲突，他们应该拥有一个能够带来和平而不是更多流血的政治前景。叙利亚的前途和命运应当由叙利亚人民来决定。各相关方应本着对叙利亚人民长远和根本利益负责的原则，尽快找到恢复稳定秩序的政治解决方案。