By Guan Ruohe and Duan Ting

管若荷、段挺

The Freezing Winds 24 naval exercise led by Finland under the NATO framework ended on November 29. Analysts said that as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, NATO's military preparations in the Nordic region not only fail to ease tensions but also exacerbate regional security concerns.

11月29日，在北约框架下由芬兰主导的“冰冻之风2024”海军演习结束。分析人士表示，随着俄乌冲突持续升级，北约在北欧地区加紧整军备战，不仅无益于冲突的缓和，还加剧了该地区安全紧张局势。

NATO has been steadily strengthening its military presence in Northern Europe since Finland and Sweden joined NATO. In 2024, to further deepen defense cooperation within the NATO framework, five Nordic countries including Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Iceland, signed the Nordic Defence Concept. They also conducted multiple military exercises in the region, such as Nordic Response and Northern Viking, alongside other NATO member states. These military actions reflect the evolution of NATO's internal relations and imply considerations of engaging in geopolitical games with Russia.

自芬兰和瑞典加入北约以来，北约不断加强在北欧地区的军事存在。2024年，为进一步深化北约框架内的防务合作，挪威、瑞典、芬兰、丹麦、冰岛五个北欧国家签署了《北欧防务合作概念》，并与北约其他成员国在北欧地区举行“北欧反应”“北部维京”等多场军事演习。北约在军事层面的诸多行动，反映了北约内部关系的演进，也暗含了与俄开展地缘政治博弈的考量。

First, NATO aims to share and balance US-Europe defense responsibilities. With the arrival of a Trump 2.0 era, NATO member states in Europe have been working to bolster NATO's European pillar since last year to prevent potential US challenges and ease US-Europe defense burden-sharing conflicts. They have increased defense spending and military development and played leading roles in military drills in regions including Northern Europe.

分担与平衡美欧防务责任。随着特朗普2.0时代的来临，为预防美国再度发难、缓和双方在防务责任方面的矛盾，北约欧洲成员国去年起就开始推进北约“欧洲支柱”建设，持续加强在军费投入、军力发展等方面的力度，并在北欧等地区的军演中积极充当主力军。

Second, NATO intends to improve the military integration and interoperability of new and old member states. Today, the Nordic region has become the front line of potential conflict between Russia and NATO. As a result, the collective defense pressure of the Nordic countries has risen sharply. In this context, Finland and Sweden, which have just joined NATO, urgently need to further integrate into NATO's combat system and strengthen combat readiness response and front-line combat capabilities. Some analysts believe that NATO's high frequency of military exercises in the Nordic region is intended to improve its coordinated combat capabilities in the region.

提升新老成员国军事一体化互操作能力。如今，北欧地区已成为俄罗斯与北约爆发潜在冲突的前沿，北欧国家集体防御压力急剧攀升。在这种背景下，刚加入北约不久的芬兰和瑞典，急需进一步融入北约联盟作战体系，强化战备反应和前沿作战能力。有分析认为，北约在北欧区域高频次举行军演，背后就有提升在该地区协同作战能力的意图。

Third, NATO attempts to strengthen its military deterrence against Russia. At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows a clear trend of Russia advancing and Ukraine retreating. Russia successfully tested the intermediate-range ballistic missile Oreshnik when NATO relaxed restrictions on the use of long-range weapons in aid of Ukraine. The situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield is developing in a direction that is unfavorable to Europe. Therefore, NATO hopes to deter Russia by building up its military in Northern Europe.

加强北约对俄罗斯的军事威慑。当前，俄乌冲突呈现出明显的俄进乌退态势，特别是俄罗斯在北约放松援乌远程武器使用限制情况下，成功试射了中程弹道导弹“榛树”，俄乌战场形势正朝不利于欧洲的方向发展。因此，北约希望通过在北欧方向厉兵秣马来对俄进行军事威慑。

NATO's strengthening of its military presence in the Nordic region will not only have a negative impact on the regional security situation but will also exacerbate divisions within NATO. On the one hand, NATO's tough stance and offensive military deployment in the Nordic region will inevitably provoke a reciprocal response from Russia. The confrontation between Russia and NATO will extend to the Nordic region and even spread to the Arctic region, which could further undermine international cooperation in the Arctic.

北约加强在北欧地区的军事存在，不仅给地区安全形势带来负面影响，也会加剧北约内部的分歧。一方面，北约在北欧地区的强硬姿态和进攻性军事部署必将引发俄罗斯的对等回应，俄罗斯与北约的对峙将延伸到北欧地区，甚至向北极地区蔓延，北极国际合作也将遭到进一步破坏。

On the other hand, the continued strengthening of defense and security cooperation by the Nordic countries will gradually increase their voice and influence within NATO. The Nordic countries have always been tougher on Russia compared to France, Germany and other countries. It is foreseeable that with Trump's return to power, the differences between NATO member states may further increase.

另一方面，北欧国家不断加强防务安全合作，将使其在北约内部的话语权和影响力逐渐上升。一直以来，在对俄态度上，北欧国家相较于法德等国更加强硬。可以预见，随着特朗普重新执政，北约成员国之间的分歧可能会进一步加大。