By Xie Hao
谢浩
The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently called on NATO countries to "move to a wartime mentality and increase our defense production and defense spending." He stated that he would push member states to move towards the goal of "military spending exceeding 2% of GDP." During the NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting earlier this month, representatives of some European members of NATO proposed increasing defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2030. As the largest military organization in the world today, NATO's constant pushing for increased defense spending has drawn widespread attention.
新任北约秘书长吕特不久前呼吁北约国家转入“战时思维”，加大国防和安全开支，称将推动成员国向“军费开支高于国内生产总值2%”的目标迈进。本月初北约外长会期间，一些北约欧洲成员国代表提出，在2030年前将各国军费开支占国内生产总值比重的指标从2%提升至3%。作为当今世界最大的军事组织，北约持续推动军费增长引发国际社会广泛关注。
For a prolonged period after the Cold War, many European members of NATO believed that security threats had diminished and consequently reduced their defense budgets. After Crimea's annexation by Russia in 2014, NATO member countries committed to increasing their defense spending to 2% of GDP within10 years. However, European members of NATO have long shown insufficient willingness to fulfill this obligation, with only six members reaching the 2% target by 2018. European defense spending surged after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is expected that 23 European members of NATO will meet the target this year. Some European countries even hope to pass new targets at the NATO summit next June, with a short-term goal of 2.5% and reaching 3% by 2030.
冷战后较长一段时期，许多欧洲成员国认为安全威胁降低，纷纷削减国防开支。2014年克里米亚“入俄”后，北约各成员国承诺在10年内把本国防务开支占国内生产总值的比重提至2%。但欧洲成员国履行该义务的意愿长期不足，2018年只有6个成员国达到2%的目标。俄乌冲突爆发后，欧洲防务开支激增，预计今年将有23个欧洲成员国达标。一些欧洲国家甚至希望明年6月举行的北约峰会上通过新的指标，设想短期目标为2.5%，到2030年达到3%。
The increase in NATO's military expenditure reflects both internal anxieties and external concerns. On one hand, NATO has already invested significant military aid to Ukraine but has still failed to achieve its strategic objectives. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its fourth year, NATO is concerned that insufficient support to Ukraine may allow Russia to achieve its strategic goals, which could deliver a major blow to NATO's credibility and security. Data has shown that military spending by European members of NATO and Canada increased by nearly 20% in 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite this, NATO continues to vigorously promote anti-Russia sentiment and pressure its members to raise the proportion of defense spending in their GDP.
北约增加军费开支，既有内在焦虑，也有外在担忧。一方面，北约已经向乌克兰投入巨额军事援助，始终未能达成战略目标。俄乌冲突即将进入第4个年头，北约担心因援乌力度不够导致俄罗斯达成战略目标，对北约信誉和安全造成重大冲击。数据显示，北约欧洲成员国和加拿大2024年的军费开支较去年增长了近20%。在这样的基础上，北约仍在大力兜售恐俄情绪，诱压各成员国增加防务开支占国内生产总值的比重。
On the other hand, the push of NATO for increased defense spending also aims to cater to US President-elect Donald Trump. During his first term, Donald Trump frequently criticized NATO members for not meeting defense spending targets and even threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. In his campaign for a second term, he repeatedly promised that, if re-elected, he would quickly bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. European countries are hoping to demonstrate their support for the US by increasing their defense spending. Meanwhile, if Donald Trump were to insist on reducing the defense commitments of the US to NATO, European members of NATO could use this move as a precautionary measure to maintain their own defense capabilities.
另一方面，则是为了迎合美国当选总统特朗普。特朗普在第一个总统任期内曾多次批评北约成员国防务支出“不达标”，并以美国退出北约相要挟。在其赢得第二个总统任期的选战中，特朗普曾多次承诺再次入主白宫后要很快结束俄乌冲突。欧方希望通过此举向美方展现配合姿态。同时，若特朗普执意缩减对北约防务的投入，欧洲成员国也可通过此举维持自身防御水平，起到“未雨绸缪”的作用。
It should be noted that pushing for an increase in military spending will neither resolve NATO's difficulties nor satisfy Donald Trump's demands.
需要指出的是，强推军费增长既无法解决北约的困境，也满足不了特朗普的胃口。
Currently, many NATO countries are preparing for future Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but Mark Rutte continues to call for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine before negotiations, aiming to strengthen aid to Ukraine and increase NATO defense spending in order to gain leverage in the talks. This hardline stance is not conducive to advancing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. On the contrary, it will further escalate geopolitical confrontation. Moreover, in the context of weak economic growth in Europe, increasing defense spending will inevitably lead to cuts in social welfare and other public spending, which could trigger large-scale strikes, protests, and demonstrations, and even result in the rise of populism and extremism, potentially leading to political instability. In fact, both France and Germany have faced government failures to pass votes of confidence in their parliaments due to excessive fiscal pressure.
当前，北约多国已经在为未来的俄乌和谈进行准备，但吕特仍呼吁在俄乌和平谈判前向乌克兰提供更多武器，企图通过强化对乌援助、增加北约防务支出来为乌争取谈判筹码。这一强硬姿态并不利于推进俄乌和谈，相反还会进一步加剧地缘对抗。而且，在欧洲经济增长乏力的情况下，增加防务开支势必要削减社会保障资金等民生支出，极易引发大规模的罢工抗议、示威游行，导致民粹主义、极端主义不断抬头，甚至发生政局动荡。事实上，法国、德国已因财政压力过大导致政府未能通过议会的信任投票。
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's demands on European members of NATO have continued to increase. According to media reports, Donald Trump's team has informed European officials that NATO members are required to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP and continue providing military aid to Ukraine. On one hand, this demands that European members of NATO take on more defense responsibilities and create more orders for US arms manufacturers. On the other hand, it aims to help the US focus its resources on advancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Analysts believe that the 5% target signifies preparation for large-scale warfare. Amid sluggish economic growth in Europe and the prolonged regional conflicts, the insistence of NATO on increasing defense spending and strengthening geopolitical confrontation will not bring true peace to Europe. Instead, it will impose an even heavier burden on European people and generate more panic.
与此同时，特朗普对北约欧洲成员国的要求越来越高。据媒体报道，特朗普的团队已经告知欧洲官员，要求北约成员国将国防开支提高至国内生产总值的5%，并计划继续向乌克兰提供军事援助。这一方面是要求欧洲成员国承担更多的防务责任，为美国军火商寻找更多订单，另一方面也试图借此帮助美国集中精力推进“印太战略”。在分析人士看来，5%的指标，意味着在为大规模战争做准备。在欧洲经济增长乏力和地区冲突延宕的双重影响下，北约执意增加军费开支，强化地缘对抗，不仅不会给欧洲带来真正的和平，还将给欧洲人民带来更加沉重的负担和更多恐慌情绪。
(The author is from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.)
（作者单位：中国现代国际关系研究院）
