By Wang Jin

王晋

It has been over a month since the Syrian transitional government  assumed power on December 10, 2024. Currently, the new Syrian regime is advancing its domestic and foreign agendas in parallel. Domestically, it has announced a series of plans and initiatives focusing on political transition and economic reform. Internationally, it has been engaging frequently with regional countries to seek support. Analysts believe that the future evolution of the Syrian situation will be influenced by numerous factors and the reconstruction process will face multiple challenges.

自2024年12月10日叙利亚过渡政府接管权力已过去一月有余。目前，叙新政权内政外交同步推进，对内围绕政治过渡和经济改革公布了一系列方案和计划，对外与地区国家频繁接触、寻求支持。分析人士认为，未来叙利亚局势演变受诸多因素影响，重建进程面临多重挑战。

The prospects for political integration remain uncertain. Whether the transitional government can unite the fragmented political forces and balance the interests of various factions, ethnic groups, and sects in Syria will directly affect the prospects of the political transition. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has repeatedly emphasized opposition to sectarianism and advocated for peaceful coexistence among all factions. However, integrating the numerous anti-government armed groups in Syria remains a significant challenge for the transitional government. Locally, political forces in southern Syria, backed by Jordan, wield significant influence in the area. In the northeast, the Kurds hold a dominant position and are seeking a high-level autonomy. Meanwhile, on the western coast, some policies and measures introduced by the transitional government have sparked dissatisfaction among the elites of the Alawites . Although Syria's new leadership claims to establish an inclusive government, the differing interests of various factions and ethnic tensions will pose significant challenges to the reconstruction of the country.

政治整合前景不明朗。能否团结叙利亚派系林立的政治力量，平衡不同阵营、族群和教派的关系，直接关系叙政治过渡前景。“叙利亚沙姆解放武装”领导人艾哈迈德•沙拉多次强调，反对宗派主义，主张各派别和平共处。但如何整合叙利亚派系林立的反政府武装，是过渡政府面临的一个考验。在地方层面，叙南部受约旦支持的政治力量在当地具有较强的影响力；在叙东北部地区，库尔德人占据主导地位，并希望获得高度自治权；在叙西部沿海地区，过渡政府一些政策措施引起当地阿拉维派精英的不满。尽管叙新领导层称要建立一个包容性政府，但各派别的利益诉求差异及民族矛盾将给国家重建带来重重困难。

Restoring economic development remains a daunting task. The prolonged civil war and external sanctions have severely impacted Syria's economic and social development. Statistics show that Syria's GDP has shrunk by more than half over the past decade. In 2024, the Syrian currency has accelerated its depreciation and the country's foreign exchange reserves are almost depleted. In response, the transitional government has recently introduced a series of measures, including launching a new round of financial and economic sector reforms, reopening the Naseeb border crossing between Syria and Jordan , and pushing for the restoration of production in Syria's oil sector. Analysts believe that the key to Syria's economic development lies in whether energy production can be restored and whether external sanctions can be lifted. Currently, there are still doubts within the international community regarding the nature of the HTS, especially as the group continues to harbor extremists from Europe, Central Asia, and North Africa. Therefore, it will probably take a long and arduous progress before the external sanctions disappear.

恢复经济发展步履维艰。长期内战以及外部制裁，对叙利亚经济社会发展造成严重冲击。统计数据显示，叙利亚近10余年间国内生产总值缩水一半以上。叙利亚货币2024年加速贬值，外汇储备所剩无几。叙过渡政府近期出台一系列措施，包括开启新一轮金融和经济部门改革、开放叙利亚和约旦边境的纳西卜口岸、推动叙利亚石油部门恢复生产等。分析人士认为，叙利亚经济发展的关键，在于能源生产能否恢复和外部制裁能否解除。当前，国际社会对“叙利亚沙姆解放武装”的性质仍然存在疑虑，尤其是该组织内部仍然存在来自欧洲、中亚和北非的极端分子，外部制裁的解除恐非一日之功。

External power dynamics are significantly influencing the direction of Syria's reconstruction process. Recently, Syria's transitional government has actively engaged in diplomatic activities, holding mutual visits with some regional countries. Western countries and the EU have also sent delegations to establish contact with the new Syrian regime. The interests of these countries in Syria vary. The US is not only concerned with the safety of its military personnel stationed in Syria but also seeks to support the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. Turkey aims to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey as soon as possible, while also seeking to curb the activities of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)  and its affiliated groups in Syria. On January 8, intense clashes erupted on the outskirts of Manbij in Aleppo province between Syrian Kurdish forces supported by the US and Syrian armed groups backed by Turkey. This highlights how internal factional divisions, compounded by external interventions, can easily escalate tensions and lead to new conflicts and instability.

外部力量博弈影响叙利亚重建进程的走向。近期，叙利亚过渡政府积极展开外交活动，与部分地区国家实现互访，西方国家和欧盟也派团与叙新政权展开接触。各国在叙利亚利益诉求各有不同。美国不仅关注本国驻叙军事人员安全，同时有意袒护叙东北部库尔德武装。土耳其希望尽早遣返数百万在土滞留的叙利亚难民，同时遏制叙库尔德工人党及其附属组织的发展。1月8日，美国支持的叙利亚库尔德武装与土耳其支持的叙利亚武装在阿勒颇省曼比季市郊爆发激烈交火。这表明，内部各派不和叠加外部势力干预，极易激化矛盾，引发新的冲突和动荡。

It is clear that Syria's reconstruction involves multiple areas, including politics, economy, and diplomacy, with each domain influencing the others. With internal factional conflicts and external foreign interventions at play, the process of domestic reconciliation and national reconstruction in Syria will not be a smooth path.

外部力量博弈影响叙利亚重建进程的走向。近期，叙利亚过渡政府积极展开外交活动，与部分地区国家实现互访，西方国家和欧盟也派团与叙新政权展开接触。各国在叙利亚利益诉求各有不同。美国不仅关注本国驻叙军事人员安全，同时有意袒护叙东北部库尔德武装。土耳其希望尽早遣返数百万在土滞留的叙利亚难民，同时遏制叙库尔德工人党及其附属组织的发展。1月8日，美国支持的叙利亚库尔德武装与土耳其支持的叙利亚武装在阿勒颇省曼比季市郊爆发激烈交火。这表明，内部各派不和叠加外部势力干预，极易激化矛盾，引发新的冲突和动荡。