By Wang Jinyan

王金岩

The Libya's eastern-based House of Representatives, the parliament, approved a national reconciliation law by a majority vote on January 7. The drafting of the law began in April 2021, with a draft completed in November 2024. It took an additional two months to pass, reflecting the arduous process of national reconciliation in Libya.

1月7日，利比亚国民代表大会以多数票赞成通过“民族和解法”。该法2021年4月着手起草，2024年11月草案拟定，此后经过2个月才得以通过，过程之漫长体现了利比亚民族和解之艰难。

Analysts believe that the passage of the national reconciliation law is a positive domestic political development following the Libyan civil war. However, it does not indicate genuine reconciliation among Libya's factions. It remains to be seen whether this war-torn North African country can successfully achieve political unification.

分析人士认为，“民族和解法”的通过是利比亚战争后国内政治取得的积极进展，但并不代表利比亚各派别间迎来真正的和解，这个饱经战乱的北非国家能否顺利实现政权统一仍有待观察。

Led by the US and France, NATO intervened in the Libyan civil war in 2011 and overthrew the Gaddafi regime. Post-war Libya failed to achieve the expected political stability and economic prosperity but instead fell into long-term turmoil.

在美法主导下，北约于2011年发动利比亚战争，推翻卡扎菲政权。战后的利比亚并没有达到预期的政治稳定和经济繁荣，反而陷入长期动荡。

Since 2014, Libya has been in a state of political standoff between two rival forces. The UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and its allied armed forces control parts of western Libya, while the parliament has aligned with the Libyan National Army (LNA), controlling most of the eastern and southern regions. After years of conflict, the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement in October 2020 under UN mediation and agreed to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in December 2021. However, these elections have been repeatedly postponed due to various factors.

自2014年以来，利比亚一直处于两派政治力量并立的对峙状态。得到联合国承认的民族团结政府与支持它的武装力量控制西部部分地区，国民代表大会则与“国民军”结盟，控制东部和南部大部分地区。缠斗数年后，冲突双方直至2020年10月才在联合国斡旋下签署停火协议，并商定于2021年12月举行总统和议会选举。此后由于种种因素，相关选举一再被推迟。

The main reason why the Libyan reconciliation process is so difficult is that there is a lack of internal motivation but substantial external resistance.

利比亚和解进程之所以如此艰难，主要原因在于内部动力不足、外部阻力重重。

Analysts point out that Libya's independence is the result of international arrangements rather than the natural outcome of national development. Libyan citizens' sense of national identity is far weaker than their loyalty to tribes and regions. While a strong regime can maintain nominal unity, the collapse of such a regime will inevitably lead to division and confrontation. The public is not very concerned about national reunification. The two parallel regimes are afraid of losing their existing power and interests and often choose to maintain the status quo rather than fully promote reunification.

分析人士指出，利比亚的独立本就是大国安排的结果，而不是民族国家发展到一定阶段的产物。利比亚民众对国家的认同感，远不及对部落和地区的归属感。在强力政权治下尚能维持形式上的统一，一旦原政权崩塌，很容易形成分裂对峙局面。民众对国家统一的关注度不高，两个并立政权都怕失去既有的权力和利益，往往选择维持现状也不愿全力推动实现政权统一。

Libya has an important strategic location and rich oil and gas resources and therefore has attracted the attention of countries in and outside the region. Since the end of the Libyan civil war, Türkiye and Qatar have long supported the western government, while Russia, Egypt, and the UAE have backed the eastern and southern factions. External intervention has further made it more difficult to achieve national reconciliation in Libya.

利比亚战略位置重要、油气资源丰富，也因此受到域内外国家的关注。利比亚战争结束后，土耳其、卡塔尔长期支持西部政权，俄罗斯、埃及、阿联酋则支持东南部力量。外部干预进一步加大了利比亚实现民族和解的难度。

Recently, new dynamics have emerged in the influence of external forces on Libya's situation. Russia has transferred some military personnel and equipment from Syria to eastern Libya and upgraded local infrastructure, signaling an intention to establish a new strategic foothold in the Mediterranean region. At the same time, Russia is also seeking support from the GNA. Türkiye is similarly "hedging its bets" by enhancing economic cooperation with the eastern and southern factions. These policy shifts by Russia and Türkiye may facilitate compromises between Libya's rival forces to some extent.

近期，外部势力对利比亚局势的影响出现一些新动向。俄罗斯把部分在叙利亚军事人员、武器装备转移至利比亚东部，并对当地一些基础设施进行改扩建，有在地中海区域打造新战略支点的意图；与此同时，俄方也在争取民族团结政府的支持。土耳其同样在“两边下注”，加强与东南部政权经济合作。俄、土两国政策的调整，在一定程度上有利于利比亚两派力量的相互妥协。

The two Libyan governments have generally coexisted peacefully since the signing of the ceasefire agreement. However, tensions resurface whenever core issues such as presidential and parliamentary elections arise. Achieving genuine national reconciliation in Libya will require sustained efforts from all parties involved.

自停火协议签署以来，利比亚国内两个政权基本上能和平共处，但每当涉及总统和议会选举等核心议题，矛盾冲突就会凸显。未来利比亚想实现真正的民族和解，仍需各方付出不懈努力。

(The author is from the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.)

（作者单位：中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所）