By Wang Min

王敏

Recently, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to initiate the development of the "Iron Dome for America" missile defense system. It requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to submit an architecture design and detailed implementation plan for the system within 60 days.

不久前，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，宣布启动建造美国“铁穹”导弹防御体系，并要求美国防部在60天内提交该系统的参考架构和具体落实计划。

The primary purpose of the "Iron Dome for America" missile defense system is to counter threats from ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other similar threats. Donald Trump's announcement of the program at the start of his second term reflects multiple strategic considerations.

美国“铁穹”导弹防御体系的主要用途是要应对弹道导弹、高超音速导弹、先进巡航导弹等威胁。特朗普在其第二个总统任期刚刚开始之际就宣布此项计划，背后存在多重考量。

The first is to strengthen missile defense capabilities. Currently, the US still considers such weapons as ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles as primary security threats. The Trump administration aims to develop a next-generation missile defense shield with the latest technologies, accelerate the deployment of space-based sensors capable of tracking hypersonic and ballistic missiles, and develop new space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept.

强化自身反导能力。目前，美国仍将弹道导弹、高超音速导弹等武器视为主要安全威胁。特朗普政府希望以最新技术打造新一代导弹防御系统，加速部署能够跟踪高超音速导弹与弹道导弹的太空传感器，开发具备助推段拦截能力的新型天基拦截器。

Some analysts suggest that if the US deploys such weapon systems in space, other countries may be forced to take countermeasures, leading to an intensified arms race in space. Given that the US Space Force was established during the first term of Donald Trump, there is speculation that the US will significantly increase its military presence in space in the coming years.

有分析指出，一旦美国在太空部署相关武器系统，其他国家可能会被迫采取反制措施，从而导致太空军备竞赛加剧。考虑到美国太空军就是在特朗普的第一个总统任期内成立的，舆论认为，美国未来几年很可能大幅加强太空军事部署。

The second is to replicate the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The SDI program aimed to establish a multi-layered, multi-faceted comprehensive defense system. With the end of the Cold War, the program was ultimately abandoned after enormous expenditures. In the executive order signed by Donald Trump, he openly expressed regret over the cancellation of the SDI, revealing the Cold War mentality of the US and the competitive nature of major-country competition behind the launch of the "Iron Dome for America" plan.

复制“星球大战计划”。“星球大战计划”旨在建立一个多层次、多手段的综合防御系统。随着冷战结束，这一计划也在靡费巨资后最终被放弃。在特朗普签署的行政令中，他毫不掩饰对“星球大战计划”被废止的遗憾，暴露了美国推出“铁穹”计划背后的冷战思维和大国竞争底色。

The third is to enlist the support of military-industrial complexes. Donald Trump emphasized that the construction of the "Iron Dome for America" missile defense system will rely on domestic companies. Defense experts estimate that the project will require at least $2.5 trillion. Such a massive plan, once implemented, will benefit US military-industrial complexes significantly, both through the enormous upfront research and development costs and the recurring procurement orders, thus solidifying their support for the Trump administration. Currently, several US defense contractors have expressed support for the "Iron Dome for America" plan, stating their intention to play a key role in the program.

争取军工复合体支持。特朗普强调美国“铁穹”体系建设将依靠美本土企业。有防务专家估算，该项工程至少需要2.5万亿美元。这样一个庞大的计划一旦实施，无论是前期的巨额研发经费，还是后续源源不断的采购订单，都将让美国军工复合体大大受益，并巩固其对特朗普政府的支持。如今，已有多家美国防务承包商对“铁穹”计划表示支持，称希望在该计划中发挥重要作用。

Despite Donald Trump's ambitious claim to build the most powerful shield with the program, there are numerous challenges ahead. On one hand, intercepting hypersonic weapons is no easy task. The US attempt to deploy space-based interceptors faces not only significant technical hurdles but also strong opposition from the international community. On the other hand, the US is currently facing ongoing fiscal constraints. Reports indicate that the country plans to cut its defense budget by 8% annually over the next five years. In this context, whether the program can secure stable and continuous funding remains uncertain.

尽管特朗普雄心勃勃地宣称要将“铁穹”打造成“最强大的穹顶”，但面临的挑战却不少。一方面，拦截高超音速武器绝非易事，美国试图在太空部署天基拦截器，不仅面临技术上的重重难关，还会遭到国际社会的强烈反对；另一方面，当前美国财政持续吃紧，有消息称美国计划在未来5年内每年削减8%的国防预算，这种情况下“铁穹”计划能否获得持续稳定的资金支持也有待观察。