By Li Jiawei
李嘉伟
On April 12, high-level talks between the US and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program were held in Oman. This negotiation, often referred to by the international community as a "dialogue of the deaf," stems from mutual concerns over the escalating situation.
4月12日，美国与伊朗将就伊核问题在阿曼举行高层谈判。这场被国际社会喻为“聋子对话”的谈判，源于双方对局势失控的担忧。
The Trump administration hoped that it could shift domestic tensions and project an image of diplomatic breakthroughs through negotiations. Since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, Iran has faced multiple rounds of sanctions from the US and the West, which severely damaged its economic development. Some political factions within Iran favor improving international relations to ease domestic economic pressures.
特朗普政府希冀通过谈判转移国内矛盾，营造“外交突破”的形象。自美国2018年宣布单方面退出伊核协议以来，伊朗遭受来自美西方多轮制裁，经济发展受到严重打击。伊朗国内的部分政治力量倾向于通过改善国际关系，缓解国内经济压力。
However, the structural contradictions between the US and Iran suggest that this dialogue could devolve into a protracted battle. Relations between the two countries have long been strained. Recently, the US has increased its military and economic pressure on Iran. Observers believe that the US military's deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, along with the stationing of six B-2 bombers at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, directly threatens Iran's nuclear facilities.
然而，美伊之间固有的结构性矛盾，使得此次谈判很可能变成一场艰难的拉锯战。长期以来，美伊关系一直处于紧张状态。近期，美国更是在军事和经济方面对伊加码施压。观察人士认为，美方在中东部署双航母打击群和在印度洋迪戈加西亚基地集结6架B-2轰炸机的举动，对伊朗核设施构成直接威胁。
In response to these threats, Iran's military has shown a tough stance. Recently, Iran unveiled a new underground "missile city," equipped with an automated rail transport system that can prepare missiles for launch in just 15 minutes. The missile stockpile, which includes the Emad, Kheibar-Shekan, Paveh and other types, has a range that covers almost all of Israel and US military bases in the Middle East. Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Iran is ready for any war.
面对美国的威胁，伊朗军方强硬回应。近日，伊朗向外界展示新地下“导弹城”。公开信息显示，“导弹城”内部配备自动化的轨道运输系统，可在15分钟内完成导弹的起竖发射准备，且存储的“伊玛德”“城堡破坏者”“帕韦”等型号导弹，射程范围几乎覆盖以色列全境及美军中东基地。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令萨拉米表示，伊朗“随时准备应对任何战争”。
The US hopes to use military deterrence as leverage to force Iran to make concessions on nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, and its influence in the Axis of Resistance. The US has even demanded the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear facilities. In contrast, Iran has firmly announced that it will not accept negotiations under pressure, insisting that the lifting of sanctions be a prerequisite for any talks. For Iran, its deterrent capabilities, including ballistic missiles, are vital to counter external pressures and ensure self-defense. The control of the Strait of Hormuz and influence over Shiite armed groups in the region are also key bargaining chips for Iran at the negotiating table. Furthermore, Iran's distrust of the long-term sustainability of any agreement is heightened by the US's history of unilaterally withdrawing from deals.
美国希望以军事威慑为筹码，迫使伊朗在核设施、弹道导弹以及“抵抗轴心”等问题上作出全面让步，甚至提出“完全拆除核设施”的要求。对此，伊朗强硬表态，拒绝“命令式谈判”，坚持以解除制裁为前提重启对话。对伊朗来说，弹道导弹等威慑力量是其对抗外部压力、用以自保的“护身符”，而对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权和地区什叶派武装的影响力，则是其谈判桌上的重要筹码。此外，美国单方面频繁“退群”的黑历史，也让伊朗对未来协议的持久性心存疑虑。
The path of military threats and maximum pressure offers no resolution. Genuine political will and engagement in dialogue and negotiation are the proper course. However, the demand of the US for denuclearization directly contradicts Iran's insistence on sovereignty. As a result, this round of talks is more likely to serve as a platform for conflict management rather than problem resolution. If the talks break down, the situation in the Middle East could become even tenser.
武力威胁、极限施压没有出路，展现政治诚意、参与对话协商才是正道。然而，美国要求“去核”与伊朗坚持“主权”根本对立，此次谈判更可能成为“冲突管理”而非“问题解决”的平台。若谈判破裂，中东局势可能变得更为紧张。
(The author is from Renmin University of China.)
（作者单位：中国人民大学）
