By Chen Yadong

陈雅东

Germany's 45th Armored Brigade was recently inaugurated in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. This marks the first time since the end of World War II that Germany has permanently stationed a large number of troops overseas. Analysts believe that Germany's troop deployment in Lithuania is aimed at enhancing its role in European security affairs and reflects its proactive stance on promoting European defense autonomy.

德国联邦国防军第45装甲旅的揭幕仪式近日在立陶宛首都维尔纽斯举行。这是二战结束以来，德国首次在海外大规模部署常驻军队。分析人士认为，德国在立陶宛驻军旨在提升其在欧洲安全事务中的地位，显示出其推动欧洲防务自主的积极态度。

As early as 2014, the Crimea crisis triggered a sharp rise in security anxiety among European countries. At the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, the alliance decided to reinforce its military presence in Central and Eastern Europe by deploying Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) battle groups in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. Germany responded actively to NATO's call and led the establishment of a multinational battle group in Lithuania in 2017.

早在2014年，克里米亚危机使欧洲国家安全焦虑迅速攀升。2016年北约华沙峰会决定加强在中东欧的军事存在，提出在爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚和波兰四国部署“增强型前沿存在”营级战斗群。德国积极响应北约号召，于2017年牵头组建立陶宛方向多国营级战斗群。

In recent years, in light of the evolving situation and future trajectory of the Ukraine conflict, the federal government of Germany has further shifted its strategic focus towards Central and Eastern Europe. In December 2023, the defense ministers of Germany and Lithuania signed an agreement on the permanent deployment of German troops in Lithuania, under which both sides jointly formulated the stationing model and deployment route for the German forces. According to the agreement, the 45th Armored Brigade of Germany, comprising around 5,000 personnel, is scheduled to be fully deployed by the end of 2027. It is reported that approximately 4,000 of these troops will be stationed at the Rudninkai military base near Vilnius.

近年来，德国联邦政府基于乌克兰冲突的现实走向与未来发展，将战略重心进一步转向中东欧方向。2023年12月，德国和立陶宛两国防长签署德国军队永久部署立陶宛的协议，双方共同制订德军驻防模式及进驻路线。依据协议，编制约5000人的德军第45装甲旅将在2027年年底前完成派驻。据报道，在计划派驻立陶宛的约5000名德军中，有约4000人组成的作战部队将驻扎在维尔纽斯附近的鲁德宁凯军事基地。

In fact, the profound evolution of global and regional security dynamics, coupled with overlapping crises, has not only compelled the German military to undergo strategic transformation but also created an opportunity for it to break through the constraints of its traditional defense policy framework. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany significantly increased its military spending by establishing a €100 billion special defense fund and raising its defense budget to more than 2% of its GDP, which marks the highest increase in developed Western countries. As the second-largest provider of military aid to Ukraine following the US, Germany has continuously pushed the boundaries of its assistance, from initially supplying helmets and light weapons, to Leopard 2 tanks, and potentially even Taurus missiles in the future, demonstrating a steadily deepening of military involvement.

事实上，全球地区安全格局的深刻演变与多重危机叠加，既倒逼德军实施战略转型，也为其突破传统防务政策框架提供契机。俄乌冲突爆发后，德国大幅增加军费，设立1000亿欧元的国防特别基金，并将国防预算提高到占国内生产总值的2%以上，增幅居西方发达国家前列。作为紧随美国之后的第二大援乌国，德国不断突破援助上限，从最初的钢盔、轻武器，到“豹2”型坦克，再到未来可能出现在俄乌战场的“金牛座”导弹，其军事介入程度不断加深。

Germany's deployment of troops to Lithuania also reflects its intention to safeguard relations with the US by assuming greater defense responsibilities within NATO. It is worth noting, however, that Germany's current strategic moves may backfire in multiple ways. First, it risks further provoking Russia. In 2022, Lithuania's "blockade" of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad already sparked strong anger in Moscow. The arrival of a German armored brigade is certain to draw a strong response from Russia. In particular, the deployment to Rukla, just about 20 kilometers from the Belarusian border, has undeniably heightened regional tensions. Second, this move may undermine the traditional Franco-German mechanism for strategic coordination. Over the more than three years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, French President Emmanuel Macron has sought to play an active role in boosting France's influence in Europe, but with limited response and effectiveness. Now, Germany's large-scale troop deployment to Lithuania acts as a "wedge" driven into Central and Eastern Europe, potentially weakening the strategic synergy between France and Germany in the realm of European defense.

此番德军进驻立陶宛，也有通过承担北约更多防务责任维护德美关系的考量。值得注意的是，当下德国的战略动向可能引发多重反噬。首先，可能进一步激怒俄罗斯。2022年，立陶宛对俄飞地加里宁格勒的“封锁”已让俄方愤怒，如今德国装甲旅的到来，必将引起俄罗斯的强烈反制。特别是其部署地鲁德宁凯距离白俄罗斯边境约20公里，这一举动无疑加剧了地区紧张局势。其次，可能冲击德法传统战略协调机制。俄乌冲突3年多来，法国总统马克龙试图扮演积极角色，提升法国在欧洲的影响力，但始终应者寥寥、效果不佳。当前，德军大规模进驻立陶宛犹如一把“楔子”插入中东欧，或将在一定程度上削弱法德在欧洲防务领域的战略协同效应。

Analysts point out that Germany's current strategy of overseas troop deployment clearly runs counter to the country's long-standing tradition of "pacifism," and is bound to face strong opposition from its traditional domestic elites. Moreover, given the impact of global economic fluctuations and trade frictions between the US and Europe, Germany's economy is set to enter a challenging phase of development, likely constraining its efforts to expand overseas military deployments.

分析人士指出，当前德军海外部署战略明显与德国过去相当长一段时间内坚持的“和平主义”传统相悖，势必会受到其国内传统精英的强烈反对。此外，当前受全球经济波动及美欧贸易争端影响，德国经济将进入一个相对困难的发展期，此时推动德军海外部署也必将受到诸多限制。

(The author is from the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Science)

（作者单位：军事科学院）