By Yang Zhongjie

The US, Britain and Australia announced to form a security alliance in September this year, whereby Washington and London promised to provide Canberra with nuclear submarine technology and help it develop a nuclear submarine fleet. Because of this, Australia canceled its massive submarine order with France and that cast a pall over the relation among the US, Australia and France. Analysts believed that the cracked US-France and Australia-France relation will be hard to recover in the short term.

France forms new alliance in the Asia Pacific

After the “submarine crisis”, leaders of the US and Australia talked with the French leader on different diplomatic occasions and tried to get France’s understanding by shifting the blame to each other. Paris has been quite composed in face of their overtures while taking faster steps to build an alliance of its own.

First, Paris watches what Washington does rather than believes what it says. Macron said the US needs to regain France’s trust by taking concrete actions rather than paying lip service. According to the joint communiqué released after the meeting between Biden and Macron, they exchanged views on fighting the pandemic, defense, counter-terrorism and response to climate change, and they reaffirmed the importance of strengthening bilateral and cross-Atlantic cooperation, but nothing substantial came out of the meeting.

Second, Paris makes demands on Australia. Macron recently had his first conversation with Morrison after the “submarine crisis”, during which he slammed the Australian side for breaking the mutual trust between the two countries and demanded Canberra take concrete actions to repair the bilateral ties. It’s also notable that Morrison and Macron had neither a separating meeting nor much interaction during the G20 Summit.

Third, Paris seeks cooperation and alliance with other countries. The office of the French President recently made a statement that Macron met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the G20 Summit. France has decided to form a “true strategic partnership” with Indonesia in the Asia Pacific and hold strategic dialogues with India to further promote the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. French media deemed that after the humiliation with the aborted submarine deal with Australia, Paris has set about forming a “small triangular alliance” with India and Indonesia in the Asia Pacific.

US and Australia’s betrayal dims prospects of trilateral ties

America and Australia made overtures to patch things up with France recently because they still value the latter’s regional influence and want to break the ice and form strategic containment against potential rivals. But France, in consideration of its national interests, has cold-shouldered their gestures. There are many obstacles to overcome before the three countries can reverse the current dilemma in their relations and it will be long before they can get back to being close partners again.

For one thing, America’s gestures will hardly take effect. With Merkel stepping down, France is in a more prominent leading position in the EU and the US will definitely try harder to rope it in. However, Paris was already disgruntled about the US-led NATO and called it “brain dead” back in the days of Donald Trump. Under the dual pressure of economic decline and COVID-19, Washington won’t be able to offer much to its European ally, so it’s unlikely for it to recover its relation with France anytime soon.

For another, Australia’s diplomatic quandary is hard to mend. Australia tearing up the submarine deal with France has sabotaged the military cooperation and strategic mutual trust between the two countries. With the upcoming 2022 presidential election, Macron is anticipated to play hardball with Canberra in order to gain more votes, and it would be unlikely for Australia to come back to terms with France in the short term unless it is able to offer some kind of compensation.

Last but not least, Europe may speed up its efforts for more independence. In recent years, European countries represented by France have been discontented with America’s actions that have undermined the alliance, and there are louder voices within the union and among NATO members for greater independence, including in national defense. Besides, the formation of the AUKUS security alliance of the US, Britain and Australia that keeps France and Germany out also disgruntled the European allies. Next, France and Germany may use the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project to gain more independence, especially in military and defense sectors, and reduce the reliance on the US.